Kangaroo Court: The 2016 Offensive Linemen

Reilly and I have seen some strange things over the years.  Whether we give off some sort of pheromone that attracts lunatics, we can't say for sure.  All we know is that we seem to keep finding ourselves in peculiar and difficult to explain situations, that frequently make us marvel at the insanity of the world.

For instance, in high school, the older brother of one of our closest friends used to insist that the state of Wyoming didn't exist.  He was absolutely adamant about this.  His defense of this theory was also surprisingly difficult to refute.  Had we ever been to Wyoming?  Had we ever met someone from Wyoming?  The answer to both questions was no.  Our friend's brother suggested that this was ample evidence that this supposed land south of Montana was entirely made up, and perhaps part of a grander conspiracy.  We eventually came to the conclusion that it was simpler just to accept his views on this subject, rather than to pack up a camera and make an 1,800 mile road trip.

We also had the opportunity to meet someone who sincerely believed that the government was watching us through the light bulbs in our homes (when any sane person knows that they watch us through our electrical outlets).  We'll call this guy George.  George happened to live in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in Baltimore, which made it all the more entertaining that he covered his windows with aluminum foil.  He also had AR-15 assault rifles positioned by every window in his house.  You know, just in case.  Years later, we would learn that George died under mysterious circumstances while running a brothel in Mexico.  True story.

Reilly and I have also been exposed to the philosophical teachings of Drukpa Kunley, and eventually decided to place our spiritual well-being in his capable hands.  Not only did he introduce phallus paintings to Bhutan, but his dong was referred to as "The Thunderbolt of Flaming Wisdom".  That is what we call a role model.  It is even claimed that he defeated a demon by beating it into submission with his "thunderbolt".  It may all seem a bit demented, but I don't think most guys would be opposed to leaving behind such an impressive legacy.

When it comes to bat-shit craziness, Reilly and I would also have to include the current 2016 presidential campaign.  It's not that we want to pick on any particular candidate, because we think they are all probably a bit loopy.  The bigger issue for us has been the way that this has convinced us that the average American might be much crazier than we ever thought was possible.  We didn't think we would need to lower the bar, for our expectations of most people, but it now seems to be necessary.  When Ra's al Ghul's plan to destroy Gotham, in order to start over from scratch, starts to seem like a sane alternative, you might have a problem with your elected officials.

So, yes, we've seen some crazy shit in our time.  What we haven't seen is any clear evidence that the experts who work for NFL teams actually have an eye for offensive line talent.  At best, they appear to be guessing, just like the rest of us.  Because of this, Reilly and I have decided that this is the one position where we actually won't bother to watch any of the prospects.  Based on a little game we played, which we refer to as the Lobotomy Line, we tend to think that you're probably just as well off picking your offensive linemen based on the more objective facts that come from the combine.  The fact that this also allows us to be a bit lazy is purely a coincidence.

As always, we'll be judging the players based on a few very idiotic basic criteria.  We will measure their Kangaroo Score (our measurement of lower body power), and their Agility Score (based on their short shuttle and 3-Cone drills).  These scores are given in the form of how many standard deviations that the prospect is away from the average result for an offensive linemen.  If you are curious, you can take a look at Athleticism and the Offensive Line part I and part II, to get some sense as to how this relates to offensive tackles and guards.  For centers, we place more importance on their short shuttle times, as you can read about here.  There are, of course, other factors such as injuries, inability to elude the law, playing time, comically unnecessary punctuation in a player's name, and positional versatility that also somewhat weigh into our views on a prospect, as well as a few other minor measurable athletic traits.

This list is still under construction, as we await the complete sets of data for individual draft prospects.  The list will continue to grow, and be updated with additional players.  Individual Agility Scores are unlikely to be changed, but based on the results from college pro-days, Kangaroo Scores may be adjusted.  The order the players are listed in will also periodically be adjusted to roughly coincide with the CBS' rankings.  Last Updated: 4/5/2016


Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
Arm Length: 34.25"   Kangaroo Score: 0.612  Agility Score: ?
Wait a second, is he from Wyoming?  Oh never mind, he spells it Laremy, not Laramie.  I guess this doesn't solve our long-standing mystery about government conspiracies in the 44th state.  Since we only have his pro day results for the vertical jump and the broad jump, we are still a bit more limited in our ability to examine him than we would really like to be.  We can say that his Kangaroo Score does suggest that he has the sort of lower body power and explosiveness we look for in an offensive tackle, and that this might still be underrating him a bit.  The results from his broad jump would have actually been an even more impressive 1.237.  Based on this limited information, we see good reasons to be optimistic.  Still, we would feel slightly annoyed about having to make this sort of selection in the top 5, without a full set of data.

Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Arm Length: 35.625"   Kangaroo Score: -0.067  Agility Score: -0.823
If a team we were rooting for selected Stanley in the 1st round, we would feel just a little bit terrified.  The measurable results that have come in so far, that relate to Stanley's athletic ability, are well below what we are normally looking for in successful NFL offensive tackles.  Average lower body power, below average explosiveness, below average agility, below average speed and quickness, these are not the sorts of things that make us quiver with delight.  Even if we accepted Stanley's improved agility results from his pro day, he would still only get a score of -0.185, which is still a hair below average.  About the only positive we can see is Stanley's rather exceptional arm length, but that isn't something we like to bet on without other supporting factors.  People might point towards someone like Cordy Glenn, as a below average athlete (at least according to his measurable data) who has supposedly done well.  Personally, we've never had much confidence in Glenn, and still think his performance has been fairly erratic.  You can judge that for yourself.  The role that having a high draft status plays in boosting peoples' opinions of players like that is a peculiar but interesting subject.. While Notre Dame has had a reasonable amount of success protecting their quarterbacks the last few seasons, we would say that was also a situation that preceded Stanley's arrival.  In fact, the team's sack rate has gradually declined over the last three years.  What is Stanley's role in all of this?  We really can't say.  We would let some other team find out whether he can outperform his measurable traits.

Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
Arm Length: 35"   Kangaroo Score:  0.020  Agility Score: 0.692
We normally wouldn't be very supportive of a player with these kinds of scores.  These results would put him in the dangerous Luke Joeckel zone.  It's possible that Conklin's 2015 leg injury is still a nagging issue, so perhaps we should give him the benefit of the doubt here.  We also would give him a slight boost for his fairly exceptional arm length.  While some quarterbacks can improve our perception of an offensive line's perception, we also suspect that Connor Cook does not fall into this category.  Still, he was the quarterback throughout Conklin's career at Michigan State, which is sort of nice because it eliminates one potential variable.  The main thing that worried us about Conklin related to his 2014 season.  As his team's offensive line seemed to have its most success as a pass blocking unit (2.67% sack rate) during Conklin's time at Michigan State, and as Cook started to achieve higher YPA results as a passer (8.6 YPA), Conklin started to give up a higher than expected share of his team's sacks.  In his two other seasons as a starter, there appeared to be a potentially similar pattern that might suggest he was either benefiting from an offense that was less aggressive, or possibly looking better simply by comparison to fellow offensive linemen who were under-performing, and thus were more appealing targets for opposing defenses to attack.  We're not going to bet against Conklin, because he does have some rather positive attributes buried within his assorted results, but there are some strange issues that surround him which cause us a bit of concern.  We wouldn't be surprised if Conklin turns out to be a good player, but we would tend to bet against him becoming a great one.  In the 1t round, where he is projected to be taken, we think you should have a higher expectation of greatness than what we are seeing here.

Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
Arm Length: 33.75"   Kangaroo Score: -0.198  Agility Score: -0.103
I guess it's time to continue this year's rant against the current crop of Ohio State prospects  Our concern with Decker is that he reminds us just a little too much of Adam Terry.  They have similarly average explosiveness and lower body power.  They also have similarly average agility.  Being average might not be a bad thing at some positions, but for an offensive tackle, it is unusual to have a great deal of success with these traits.  The only thing we can figure that might explain why people are interested in Decker, is that he is ridiculously tall.  At a hair over 6'7" tall, he probably looks like someone who should be a good player.  It's sort of like the way you would expect a DeLorean to be fast, even though it is a bit of a slug.  Unfortunately, we think Decker's height is possibly working against him here, much like it did with Adam Terry (who was 6'8").  The problem, as we've discussed in the past, is the way that arm length relates to a player's height.  When you are as tall as Decker is, while having somewhat shorter arms, you can actually wind up in a position where your effective reach is even shorter that what your arms measure.  Suddenly, Decker's somewhat below average arm length, becomes ever so slightly worse worse.  There are just a few too many areas of concern with Decker.  While people have suggested that he will be selected in the first two rounds of the draft, we wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole, though a much sorter pole is all that is probably required to keep your distance from him.

Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Arm Length: 33.625"   Kangaroo Score:  0.136  Agility Score: 0.732
Just for a change of pace, we're going to talk about an Alabama player, and not say something terrible.  While Kelly doesn't precisely fit our ideal mold for a center, he isn't that far off of the mark.  The first thing we always geek out about with centers is their short shuttle time.  We generally want a result of about 4.50 seconds or better.  In Kelly's case he had a 4.59, which isn't stunning, but is close enough for us to not eliminate him from consideration.  The more peculiar issue with Kelly is his Kangaroo Score.  Centers tend to post up rather poor results here, that frequently go into the negative range.  So, while Kelly's result is just average, relative to all offensive linemen, this is actually a fair bit better than you normally see for someone at his position.  This sort of lower body power certainly can't hurt.  Among all of his other measurable traits, everything checks out as either good or at least within the average range.  Finally, we look at the fact that he has been a 3 year starter, who has yet to give up a single sack, despite playing in the SEC.  All things considered, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he turns out to be a pretty respectable player.  The only potential concern we have is that people are expecting him to be selected somewhere around the late 1st to early 2nd round range.  Maybe that's fair, but as we've said in the past, teams have routinely shown that you are just as likely to find a quality center in the 5th round or later.  While Kelly might turn out to be a good player, we think you could probably also find someone to fill this role at a significantly cheaper price.

Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State
Arm Length: 33.625"   Kangaroo Score: -0.416  Agility Score: 1.216
Whitehair actually comes pretty close to fitting the prototype of what we expect to see in successful offensive guards.  While his Kangaroo Score is a little bit below average for an offensive lineman, suggesting somewhat below average power, it is actually well within the range of what we would feel comfortable with at the guard position.  Most quality guards tend to produce results that lean much more towards agility, rather than raw power.  In fact, this score is possibly being unfairly weighed down by his results from the vertical jump, as his broad jump results would have produced a result of 0.419.  So, he might actually be a bit more explosive than your typical guard prospect.  While we don't tend to care about bench press results, unless they are extremely abnormal, the fact that Whitehair only benched 225 pounds 16 times is a bit curious.  That is a rather peculiar result, and something we would like to see him improve on at his pro day.  It's also somewhat annoying that he will already be turning 24 this upcoming July, making him one of the older prospects in this draft.  We think Whitehair is an interesting prospect, who could possibly turn out to be pretty good, but we're just not sure if we would spend anything more than a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him at this point.

Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn
Arm Length: 35.125"   Kangaroo Score: ?*  Agility Score: ?
We're still waiting for data.  All we can say at this point, is that drafting him in the first few rounds might be pretty risky considering his medical history.  We can applaud him for coming back from cancer, but we still have to view that as a bit terrifying.  He is also currently dealing with an injury to his MCL.  For now, we'll just keep waiting for his pro day.

Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Arm Length: 34.125"   Kangaroo Score: 1.328  Agility Score: 1.471
It looks like interest in Jason Spriggs has picked up a fair bit since the combine.  People seem to be projecting that he will be taken in the 2nd round, or perhaps even the late 1st, and based upon his athletic ability we think he could be a very interesting pick.  Spriggs seems to have the explosiveness (2.188 standard deviations above average), agility and quickness to become a solid pass protector.  He also appears to have the lower body power (Kangaroo Score) to hold his ground or perform well as a run blocker.  While we have adjusted his scores a bit, because of his recent pro day, this largely just evened out some of the unevenness from his combine numbers.  It's nice to know that even if things didn't work out at left tackle, he should have the ability to move to the right tackle position, which should somewhat minimize the risks of selecting Spriggs.  While Spriggs did occasionally surrender some sacks, we don't think the rate at which he did so was out of line with what we would have expected from his team's offense, and the instability at his team's QB position over the past few years.  We're leaning towards the idea that Spriggs may eventually be viewed as one of the better offensive tackles in this draft, and probably well worth a 2nd round pick, and possibly even a 1st round pick.

Vadal Alexander, G, LSU
Arm Length: 35.25"   Kangaroo Score: -0.880  Agility Score: -0.841
Outside of his exceptional arm length, we're having a difficult time seeing anything we find encouraging about Alexander.  Having results that suggest a player lacks speed, quickness, power, agility or explosiveness, would make us extremely nervous about spending the 2nd round pick people claim he will cost.  Nope, we don't like this situation at all.

Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Arm Length: 36"   Kangaroo Score: 1.491  Agility Score: -0.017*
We still don't have all the data we would like to have for Ifedi, but so far his results are looking pretty good.  While his scores might suggest that he doesn't have the quickness or agility to play left tackle, his overall numbers look like a rather good fit for the right tackle position.  When you look at his extremely long arms, significantly above average lower body power and explosiveness, he probably has a pretty good chance of succeeding against the players he would face on the right side of the offensive line.  He might not become a top level pass blocker, we suspect he should be capable of becoming a pretty good run blocker.  He strikes us as a fairly exciting prospect, and if he was available in the 2nd round we would probably give some serious consideration towards selecting him.

Le'Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
Arm Length: 36.125"   Kangaroo Score: 0.534*  Agility Score: ?
It looks like we're never going to get a full set of data for Clark, since he didn't do all of the drills at his pro day.  Normally, when players duck out of doing the agility drills, we suspect they made this choice because they knew that their results were going to suck.  Outside of this issue, Clark seemed to have okay, but not really exceptional, lower body power and explosiveness.  We might also give him a slight boost for going through with the surgery to have gorilla arms transplanted onto his body.  Our picture of him so far is incomplete, but reasonably promising.  Still, if he is really going to be selected in the first few rounds, as people are suggesting, we wouldn't feel thrilled about making that pick without more data.

Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame
Arm Length: 32"   Kangaroo Score: -1.041  Agility Score: 0.431
We could possibly overlook his poor Kangaroo Score, since we generally expect centers to do poorly in that area.  Really though, even for a center his results here were rather terrible.  While his agility results aren't quite as bad, and we have seen interior linemen who have gotten by with less, this score also fails to excite us very much.  Perhaps the most worrisome issue we have is with his short shuttle time of 4.72 seconds, which is a fair bit below what we prefer to see in centers.  We're gradually coming to the conclusion that there was something fishy going on at Notre Dame, that might have inflated peoples' opinions of some of their offensive linemen.  While we had mixed feelings about his brother, Zach Martin, Nick's measurable traits are nowhere near what his brother produced.  Maybe Mrs,. Martin should have stopped having children after her first son?  While we certainly can't say that Martin is sure to fail in the NFL, we will say that his chances of success would probably be slightly improved by becoming a guard, rather than a center.  As things currently stand, there is no way we would feel comfortable selecting him in the 2nd round, and we would probably avoid him altogether.

Landon Turner, G, North Carolina
Arm Length: 32.875"   Kangaroo Score: -2.055  Agility Score: -1.247
As far as we can tell, Turner is so lacking in lower body power, that a gentle breeze might knock him over.  Fortunately, he seems to make up for this with horrible agility.  His 40 yard dash time of 5.56 seconds is also so far outside of the normal range for successful guards, that we almost wonder if the folks who are projecting him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick were watching tape of him without knowing that the fast forward button was still being held down..

Joshua Garnett, G, Stanford
Arm Length: 32.875"   Kangaroo Score: -0.269  Agility Score: 0.538
For someone who is supposedly viewed as a potential 2nd round pick, we're having a hard time finding any sort of objective numbers to justify that position.  If he turns out to be good, well, congratulations to Mr. Garnett.  It still wouldn't strike us a a sensible investment to make at that point in the draft.  Players with results like this can really go in any direction, so we try to avoid placing bets on these situations.

Jerald Hawkins, OT, LSU
Arm Length: 34.25"   Kangaroo Score: -1.276  Agility Score: -1.082
The only explanation we have for Hawkins' terrible scores is that he wanted to make his teammate Vadal Alexander feel better about also putting up a disastrous performance at the combine.  CBS claims that Hawkins will be selected somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round, but we suspect that is unlikely, unless all of the GMs are extremely drunk.

Connor McGovern, G, Missouri
Arm Length: 32.875"   Kangaroo Score: 0.820  Agility Score: 0.726
Hey, it's the new  -- .. - -.-. .... / -- --- .-. ... .!  So far, we're finding the superficial similarities between McGovern and Mitch Morse to be kind of eerie.  The main difference is that while both of them are rather gifted athletes, and have played numerous positions on the offensive line, we suspect Morse is the only one that was likely to potentially thrive as an NFL center.  McGovern's short shuttle time of 4.65 is just a tad slower than we would like to see for that position.  Outside of that minor complaint, we think McGovern is a very interesting prospect, much like we felt with Morse.  He has above average agility, which fits the mold we like to see in a guard, but his results also suggest he has significantly better lower body power and explosiveness than you commonly find at this position.  The numbers would suggest that he is possibly one of the most interesting mid-round offensive linemen in this draft, and we're not just saying that because he recognizes that Top Gun is a cinematic masterpiece.  Like his former teammate, we wouldn't be surprised if he is taken a bit higher than the 3rd to 4th round range that some are currently predicting.  If he is still available in the middle rounds, Reilly and I would be quite willing to take a shot at him.

Joe Haeg, T, North Dakota State
Arm Length: 33.75"   Kangaroo Score: 0.476  Agility Score: 1.221
It's a bit harder to find all of the information we would want for a prospect that come from lower levels of competition, but Haeg is somewhat interesting, if also a bit peculiar.  For a tackle, his arm length is perhaps a bit on the fringe of what we would like to see, particularly for a slightly taller tackle (6'6").  His Kangaroo Score might not look very impressive, though his results from the broad jump would produce a result of 0.768, which is at least respectable.  Then we get down to his agility results which are really quite good.  For someone who is generally projected to be a mid-round pick, he might not be a terrible gamble.  If we were going to guess, we would say that his best chance of success might come as a guard.  His measurable traits are a much better match for that position.  We probably wouldn't pursue him ourselves, unless he fell to the 5th or 6th round, but we could see how some teams might find him interesting. 

Willie Beavers, T, Western Michigan
Arm Length: 33.5"   Kangaroo Score: -0.069  Agility Score: -0.234
We don't really have anything interesting to say about Willie Beavers.  We just enjoy saying his name.

Isaac Seumalo, C, Oregon State
Arm Length: 33"   Kangaroo Score: -0.621  Agility Score: 1.222
For the most part, Seumalo's results line up pretty close to what we look for in NFL centers.  His Kangaroo Score suggests that he has the sort of mediocre lower body power that we could probably accept in a center.  His above average agility is fairly ideal for the position, especially his 4.52 second short shuttle time.  One of the few things we might quibble over is his explosiveness, when mass isn't factored into the results of his vertical and broad jumps.  His results there are a tad bit lower than what we would really like to see, though they are merely average and not outright wretched results.  Still, he is one of the more experienced centers in this draft, and if he is still available in the 5th round or later, he's probably not an entirely unreasonable gamble.

Brandon Shell, T, South Carolina
Arm Length: 34.75"   Kangaroo Score: 1.403  Agility Score: 0.587
We're still trying to find more data related to Shell's time at South Carolina, but at least we now have his pro day results.  His Kangaroo Score suggests that he does have the sort of lower body power and explosiveness that we like to see in an offensive tackle.  His agility results, while not quite as exceptional, are still somewhat above average.  Overall, he appears to be a rather good athlete.  One of our concerns with Shell is that he is already 24 years old, which might somewhat limit his upside and continued development. CBS is currently projecting that he will only be a 5th or 6th round selection, and at that point in the draft we think selecting someone like Shell makes quite a bit of sense.  There's minimal risk, because of the low cost of investment, but significant physical potential that compares favorably to players who have historically been successful at his position.

Joe Thuney, G/C, North Carolina State
Arm Length: 32.25"   Kangaroo Score: 0.142  Agility Score: 1.049
We haven't come across a ton of information on Thuney, but we like what we have seen so far.  He seems to be another one of those oddballs that has played pretty much every position along the offensive line, which shows some versatility.  Still, with that average arm length, we'd guess that his days of playing tackle are over, though his reach should be perfectly fine for an interior lineman.  Fortunately, he has the sort of above average agility, that we tend to find among successful guards and centers.  His short shuttle time of 4.52 seconds also meets our criteria for a center.  While his lower body power is merely average compared to the entire pool of linemen, it is actually a fair bit above what you see with your normal guards or centers.  When we also eliminate mass as a factor in his vertical and broad jump result, the numbers would suggest that he might also be more explosive than he is powerful.  All things considered, we think he probably deserves a bit more attention than he has currently received, as CBS is still just listing him as a 6th or 7th round prospect.  We wouldn't be surprised if he is selected a bit higher than his current projections.  We'd probably start to give him some consideration in the 4th or 5th round.  If we had any significant concerns about Thuney, it would probably stem from the fact that he is a ginger.  They are the spawn of Satan, after all.

Jake Brendel, C, UCLA
Arm Length: 31.5"   Kangaroo Score: -0.113  Agility Score: 1.894
When we saw Brendel's short shuttle time of 4.27 seconds, we instantly thought "This guy had to have been a center in college".  Sure enough, that did turn out to be his position at UCLA, where he was a four year starter.  While we would normally salivate over that sort of short shuttle time, and what it could mean for his potential as an NFL center, there are a few minor issues that worry us about Brendel.  First of all, his arm length is potentially a bit of a problem.  It is somewhat less common to see interior lineman have a high degree of success with such a limited reach, though it can happen.  Secondly, he will already be turning 24 this September, which makes him a bit older than we would really like him to be.  Still, people seem to be suggesting that he is someone who would only be selected at the very end of the draft, and if that is true, we think he could be a interesting lottery ticket sort of pick.

Halapoulivaati Vaitai, T, TCU
Arm Length: 34.25"   Kangaroo Score: 1.547  Agility Score: -1.476
We really don't want to try to pronounce that name.  Regardless, what we have here appears to be a specimen that is pure power and explosiveness, with absolutely no grace.  It's true, that his pro day numbers did produce an improved agility result of 0.593, but we find this to be highly suspicious.  If it is accurate, he would appear to be a fairly interesting prospect.  The really interesting thing is that his Kangaroo score is probably underestimating his lower body power, due to some significant differences between his vertical jump and his broad jump.  If we just looked at his broad jump results, his score would be 1.850, which is a bit unusual.  With these sorts of results, we would suspect that he could be a real liability in pass protection (depending on how we view his agility score), but he might be useful as a run blocker.  We almost certainly wouldn't pursue him, but as a prospect who is only projected to be a 7th round to UDFA type of acquisition, we think some team will try to find a use for him.  He could be somewhat interesting.

Kangaroo Court: The 2016 Defensive Tackles

I guess it's time to start poking and prodding at this year's crop of defensive tackles, much like we did last year.  While we're gradually adjusting our approach to how we pick apart these players, things will largely appear fairly similar to how we have done things in the past.

While examining this year's defensive linemen, we've been forced to ask ourselves some rather difficult questions, that perhaps fall outside the normal realm of draft analysis.  While most of these players will carry some amount of hype, and have their fair share of supporters, we're still just looking for a more objective method of weighing how exceptional they might really be.  Exactly how fearsome are most of these draft prospects, and how can we really determine whether we are all being duped?  As far as we can tell, there was only one way to answer this question.

We needed to figure out how many defensive tackles Reilly could eat over the course of a single year.

Now, this might seem like a slightly unusual question to ask.  After all, we don't know if Reilly has a taste for long pig.  All we can really say for sure is, he does seem to have a strong desire to eat the mailman.  While the ferocity he shows to these civil servants is mainly due to his paranoid belief that the government is watching us through our mail slots, I can't dismiss the possibility that Reilly also might be somewhat feral.  Whether he is more intimidating than a defensive tackle, however, is something that we have never actually solved.

Okay, so we still have to tackle the mathematical details of our little mystery, but this should be a fairly simple problem to solve.  Because of his sensitive stomach, and his demands to be treated like royalty, Reilly already gets a not insubstantial amount of meat in his diet.  On average, he goes through about 3.5 pounds of baked chicken per week (pre-cooked weight).  That adds up to 182 pounds of chicken per year.  I was rather impressed by this result, but this number still doesn't quite get us to our solution.

Perhaps more interesting, is what happens when we look at Reilly's impact on the world's chicken population.  According to the Google-tubes, an average chicken weighs about 5.8 pounds.  Of that weight, only about 50-60% is actual meat, with the rest being bones and blood for your Santeria rituals.  This means that over the course of a year, Reilly is responsible for the slaughter of somewhere around 52-62 chickens.  Entire families are getting wiped out to appease my four-legged fiend, and so far, he has shown no signs of remorse.

We also found that a typical human body is about 40% muscle and 15% fat, which gives us a combined total of 55% consumable product (we're surprisingly similar to chicken, it turns out).  The extent to which NFL players diverge from these average results is difficult to judge, as the NFL doesn't seem to feel that identifying the nutritional value of draft prospects is worth incorporating into the combine.  Regardless, if most of my friends are around 170 pounds (maybe we are being generous), they would yield about 93.5 pounds of consumable goods.  So, we now know that, if necessary, Reilly could dispose of about 2 of my friend's bodies, over the course of a single year   These are probably useful things to know.

But wait, we seem to be forgetting something!  By my rough estimate, about 80% of Reilly's diet is still made up of kibble.  What if we eliminated that, and put him on an all flesh diet?  Suddenly, we would have Reilly consuming 910 pounds of meat in a year.  That works out to 261-313 chickens.  Additionally, if a 300 pound defensive tackle would yield about about 165 pounds of man-kibble, that means Reilly could eat about 5.5 defensive tackles per year.  If we had a large enough freezer, Reilly could devour an entire Aaron Donald every 2.1 months.  Or, he could pick DeSean Jackson's bones clean  in just about 38.7 days.  If Reilly felt jealous of the time I spent socializing with friends, he could quickly dispose of 9.7 of them over the next year (a good thing to remind them of, if they should ever ask me to help them move furniture)..

Suddenly, we seem to find ourselves in a position where the big scary defensive linemen aren't nearly as intimidating as they once seemed.  That an arthritic 13 year old dog could wreak this sort of havoc is sort of an eye opener.  How many of these prancing fat men, in their brightly colored spandex outfits, could claim that they were capable of something so terrifying?  I really don't think a single one of these supposed tough guys could consume nearly half a ton of human flesh, which clearly means that Reilly must be significantly more intimidating than any of them.  The logic here is indisputable.  The thought that I go to sleep each night with such a potentially deranged predator lurking by my side, suddenly feels a bit unnerving.

We are, however,  intimidated by Takeru Kobayashi.  That guy could probably pose a legitimate challenge to Reilly.

Okay.  Now that we have that settled, let's get back to our examination of this year's crop of future disappointments.

As always, I will include the player's Kangaroo Score (our measure of lower body power), and the Agility Score (which comes from their short shuttle drill and 3-cone drill).  Each score is given in the form of how many standard deviations that a player is above, or below, the average result for someone in their position group.  If you want to, you can also read the post on Athleticism and the Defensive Tackle, to see why we think these traits might have an impact on a player's likelihood of succeeding.  Based on the role we expect a player to play, and the type of defense we expect them to be in (3-4 vs 4-3), we will sometimes shift the degree to which we value one attribute over another.  I will also list the average number of tackles for a loss (TFL) that a player had in their last two years in college, just to provide some rough measure of how disruptive they were.


This list will continue to be modified/updated as new data and prospects come to my attention.  I won't list every prospect here, but will just focus on the ones that I think are interesting for one reason or another.  Last updated: 3/29/2016


Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Kangaroo Score:  -0.269   Agility Score: 2.331  TFL:  18.5  
We'll end up discussing Joey Bosa a bit more thoroughly when we get to our post on outside pass rushers, but for now we just wanted to consider the possibility of turning him into a 3-4 defensive end.  It's just an idea we found a bit entertaining.  Because we are comparing him to a much heavier group of athletes, his scores will come out quite a bit differently here.  The first problem we run into is that Bosa would probably need to bulk up by about 20 pounds to play the 3-4 defensive end position, which might require going to the all cheeseburger diet that we sometimes recommend.  Since we could probably expect him to take about a year to gain this weight, you'd probably end up squandering about 20% of his rookie contract just waiting for him to fatten up, which would obviously be quite a waste.  Adding bulk wouldn't have any effect on his Kangaroo Score, which is just mediocre, but it probably would reduce his agility to some degree.  Fortunately his agility results suggest he could give up some ground here, and still remain significantly above average.  While his lower body power is lower than what we want to see for this position, his explosiveness is about 1.610 standard deviations above average (relative to this group of players), when his vertical and broad jumps aren't adjusted to account for his weight.  Unfortunately, that too would probably drop a fair bit, if he bulked up.  We still suspect that Bosa could play this position, in theory, but probably only at a rather mediocre level.  Without the advantage of a higher degree of power or explosive power, we suspect he would get buried in the running game, while simultaneously having his potential as a pass rusher greatly reduced.  I guess this little thought experiment didn't turn out to be as interesting as we originally thought it would.  This sort of position switch is increasingly striking us as a rather risky idea.

DeForest Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
Kangaroo Score:  0.398   Agility Score: 0.661  TFL:  15 
Last year, we were a little bit critical of Arik Armstead, Buckner's former teammate at Oregon.  The hype for Armstead seemed to revolve around his combine results, and overlook his lack of production, as well as the possibility that he wasn't even the best defensive lineman on his own team.  Despite those concerns, Armstead was still selected with the 17th overall pick.  Now we get to look at the player that we suspected was the real star of the show at Oregon.  While Buckner's Kangaroo Score is a tad lower than Armstead's result of 0.896, both exhibit at least reasonable lower body power.  Because of some minor differences in Buckner's broad jump, versus his vertical, this result might be a slight underestimate.  If we look at Buckner's non-weight adjusted jumps, he produced a more impressive result of 1.089, suggesting that he might have more of an explosive burst than pure raw power.  When it came to agility, Buckner slightly outperformed Armstead, whose result were a still respectable 0.412.  In the end, neither of them produced what we consider mind-blowing results at the combine, but they still fell into a fairly acceptable range.  The main difference between them is in the way that Buckner dominated his team's statistical production, especially in his final season, while Armstead produced rather pathetic results in his time at Oregon.  While we could complain that Buckner's stats might have been padded by a higher percentage of assisted tackles than we would like to see, that is probably nitpicking.  When Reilly went to watch the clips of Buckner's games, he came away with the impression that Buckner generally looked quite solid and respectable, even if he wasn't necessarily a consistently overwhelming force.  Reilly also suggested that Buckner's effectiveness as a pass rusher seemed to improve significantly when he lined up inside, where he was able to target offensive guards who tend to be less physically gifted, and probably struggled a bit more against more powerful offensive tackles.  In the end, it seems obvious that Buckner is destined to become a 3-4 defensive end, where we suspect he will probably turn out to be a good player, even if we aren't confident that he is a lock to become someone who terrifies opponents.  His strengths seem to significantly outweigh his weaknesses, and he appears to be one of the safer prospects among this year's defensive linemen, and is most likely worth a 1st round pick.

A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
Kangaroo Score:  -0.682  Agility Score: -0.494  TFL:  7  
It almost feels as if Alabama is running the most pointless and uninspired cloning program in the entire world.  This year we have A'shawn.  Next year it will be B'Shawn, who will quickly be followed by C'Shawn and D'Shawn.  Alabama seems to have an endless stream of these sorts of guys.  While we're sure that somebody has an explanation for why Robinson is considered a 1st round prospect, this information currently eludes us.  Undoubtedly, all of the clones in this product line will be touted as potential 1st round draft picks, since little seems to stand in the way of the Alabama hype machine.  From our perspective, this is a prospect with no discernible athletic advantages, and statistical production that was at best mediocre.  The only positive spin we can put on this is that Robinson is one of the younger defensive tackles in this draft, so maybe people feel he hasn't hit his peak yet.  We would avoid him completely.

Andrew Billings, DT/NT, Baylor
Kangaroo Score:  0.358  Agility Score: -1.104  TFL:  13.75
Reilly and I have sort of been rooting for Billings.  For a prospect who will only be turning 20 this March, his statistical production was gradually becoming fairly impressive.  The problem is, while his numbers in college were good, we wouldn't say that they had quite reached the level that merited a 1st round pick.  If he had stayed in school for another year it is quite possible that a more physically matured Billings would have reached our production targets, but who knows?  Then you factor in his combine results, which were a bit murky and erratic.  The main thing in his favor was the result from his broad jump, which was 1.300 standard deviations above average, and showed the type of lower body power that we hope to find in a nose tackle.  Based on what we have seen, he plays quite a bit like his measurables would suggest.  He is stout and powerful, but probably not terribly nimble (his pro day would boost his agility score to -0.497).  The question we always ask here is, should you really be taking run stuffing nose tackles in the first round?  We had similar concerns with Danny Shelton last year, and the results of that pick are still bearing questionable fruit.  We think Billings could possibly turn out better than Shelton, but we still tend to lean towards only using mid-round picks on this position.

Robert "The Defenestrator" Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
Kangaroo Score:  0.992  Agility Score: ?  TFL:  5.5
For someone who was a very highly touted high school prospect, we think it's kind of funny that his greatest accomplishment so far was falling out of a fourth story hotel window, and surviving.  That's actually kind of impressive if you think about it.  Maybe he was watching reruns of the Fall Guy, or maybe it was part of some elaborate religious ceremony commemorating the life of Joseph Smith.  Who really knows?  Oh wait...you say he was probably just stoned?  Ah, okay, that probably makes more sense.  Really, the thing that surprises us the most is that this would make it two years in a row that we have had idiot draft prospects leaping/falling out of windows, if we counted Josh Shaw.  We're kind of hoping this becomes a trend.  Regardless, while Nkemdiche has some impressive lower body power, and appears to be the type of athlete we often like, he really didn't accomplish much in college.  At some point a player's actual performance has to live up to their hype and potential, and we don't think Nkemdiche ever did.  If he was a 4th round pick, we might consider him, but the 1st round would be way too much of a gamble for someone with his history of under-performing and general idiocy.

Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama 
Kangaroo Score:  0.029  Agility Score: -0.470  TFL:  5.5
One of our friends frequently likes to say,"You can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter".  As far as we can tell, Alabama must be a glitter factory.  Reed might be moderately more athletic than his teammate A'Shawn Robinson, but we really see almost no meaningful difference between them.  We almost have to wonder if Alabama has some sort of requirement that their players depart the school with the athletic ability of a tree stump.  A pox upon your house, Nick Saban.  Stop sending us these types of bozos.

Sheldon Rankins, NT/DT, Louisville
Kangaroo Score:  1.230  Agility Score: 0.472  TFL:  13.25
We've run across a number of articles that were critical of Rankins' size of 6"1" and 299 pounds.  Some people have even tried to compare Rankins to Aaron Donald because of these superficial issues, though we don't think Rankins is nearly quick or agile enough for that to be accurate.  We're leaning towards the idea that his smaller size is a bit of an illusion.  Based on his Kangaroo Score, Rankins actually has fairly ideal lower body power for a nose tackle, and his 33.5" arms are above average for someone of his height.  The really interesting thing is that his Agility Score, while not a stunning result, is significantly better than what we usually find among players who could handle the nose tackle position.  So, we think he could be a rather versatile player, who can hold up against the run, while also producing some occasional pressure on the quarterback.  As far as the aspects of Rankins' statistical production that interest us, Rankins checks out quite well there too.  For the past two seasons his results have generally been significantly above average in almost every category, despite Louisville's questionable decision to frequently line him up as a defensive end.  If a team can accept the possibility that he might not be a double digit sack guy, we think Rankins will probably turn out pretty well, and is worth a 1st round pick.

Jonathan Bullard, DE/DT, Florida
Kangaroo Score:  0.122  Agility Score: 0.760  TFL:  13
Bullard is a mildly interesting prospect, though there seems to be some debate as to what position he will play, due to weighing in at 285 pounds.  We tried running his numbers through the computer as a 4-3 defensive end (where his results come out very differently), and while there is some possibility that could work, we weren't sure it was an ideal fit.  As a defensive tackle, his athletic traits are also a bit peculiar.  He doesn't appear to have great lower body power, but if we remove his weight from the calculation, his explosiveness would be about 1.089 standard deviations above average.  He actually has some surprising similarities to Aaron Donald, though Bullard is a bit less agile, and probably not quite as quick.  The other big difference is that Donald had three seasons of extremely dominant college play, starting at a much younger age, while Bullard was a bit of a late bloomer with limited success prior to this past season.  Because of the way he was moved around on the line, it makes it a bit difficult to judge his statistical production, compared to someone with a more fixed position.  Still, we would probably say that his results were a fair bit above average in his final college season.  If he was paired with a powerful nose tackle, and used as a 3 technique defensive tackle, we suspect he could turn into a useful player.  Either way, we think the current suggestions that he should be taken in the late 1st to early 2nd round might set up unfair expectations of him, and could be a tad risky.  If he slipped to the 3rd round, allowing a team to hedge its bets, and went to a team with a 4-3 defense that had a quality nose tackle, we think he could be an interesting pick.

Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA
Kangaroo Score:  -0.239  Agility Score: -0.076  TFL:  8.25
People claim that Clark is going to be a high draft pick, but Reilly and I have no idea what to make of this.  In many ways, Clark reminds us of Leonard Williams, who also confused us a fair bit.  They both produced rather respectable stats in college, though Clark only did so for one season, versus Williams who did so for three.  With both players, there was no clear sign that they possessed  any sort of physical advantages in terms of measurable speed, quickness, power or agility.  That raised some concerns as to how they would deal with the more physically gifted players in the NFL.  It's not that there was anything wrong with them athletically.  They just lacked any evidence of being exceptionally gifted.  When we watched them play, both players also struck us as fairly active guys, who kept moving towards the ball, without necessarily being physically dominant.  So, much like we said with Leonard Williams last year, we'll abstain from guessing what will happen with Clark.  He's not necessarily someone we would want to bet on becoming a success, but he's also not someone we would bet against.  All we can say is that a high draft pick might be a bit of a gamble for someone like this.

Vernon Butler, NT, Louisiana Tech
Kangaroo Score:  1.974  Agility Score: -0.557  TFL:  11.75
Based on his pro day results, we've had to radically alter our opinion of Butler.  At the combine, Butler produced a Kangaroo Score of just 0.460, which is a bit underwhelming for a nose tackle.  At this pro day, he boosted this result to 1.974, which is outstanding.  While we tend to be a bit dismissive of the need for high agility with these sorts of players, we might also argue that Butler's results are a tad better than you normally find in players his size, which could be interesting.  The main problem we have with Butler relates to his statistical production.  In general his results weren't bad at all, but relative to his team's defense they were a tad lower than what we would have liked to see.  Yes, he arguably made more tackles for a loss than you typically see from a nose tackle, but his other results were a bit weaker.  What worries us about this is that we would have expected someone with his exceptional sort of athleticism to overwhelm his opponents a bit more than he seems to have done.  This is especially true when you consider the somewhat lower level of competition he faced in college.  He seems to have the tools to become a star, but in the little we have seen of him, he didn't always execute quite as well as we might expect.  While we are generally wary of taking nose tackles with high draft picks, we still have to admit that we can respect the enormous physical potential that Butler possesses.  If he was available in the 2nd or 3rd round, we might give him some consideration, though most people seem to think he will be taken a bit higher than that.

Austin Johnson, DT/NT, Penn State
Kangaroo Score:  -0.805  Agility Score: -0.584  TFL:  10.5
When we look at Johnson's statistical production relative to his team, we could argue that his results were fairly impressive, even if they were somewhat isolated to his 2015 season.  Unfortunately, we're still not terribly confident about his future, or that of his teammates Carl Nassib and Anthony Zettel.  Maybe part of the problem was the Penn State schedule, which was probably a bit mediocre this year.  Or, maybe we're worried that Johnson just had a brief statistical surge, brought on by drinking unicorn blood?  Who can really say?   It looks like Johnson might have padded his stats a bit more than we would like against some of the softer teams, and became noticeably quieter against higher level competition.  While he was responsible for a surprisingly high 8.8% of his team's tackles, 61.5% of these tackles were assists, which isn't exactly the sort of result you want to see.  Then, you have the not so minor issue that his results prior to 2015 were much more humble, which makes you wonder if his performance last year was an anomaly.  Finally, we have his measurable traits from the combine, which are more than just a little bit worrisome.  While we could ignore his poor agility results, since we don't expect nose tackles to do well in that area, his lower body power (the dreaded Kangaroo Score), is well below what we would hope to see.  We currently seem to see him listed as a potential late 1st to early 2nd round prospect, but that is way too rich for our blood.  He might not be as risky a prospect as Terrence Cody was, but that's about as optimistic a statement as we can make about Johnson.  We probably wouldn't even select him if he fell to the 7th round.

Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State
Kangaroo Score:  -1.156  Agility Score: -1.045  TFL:  8.75
We're probably going to spend a fair bit of the off-season criticizing players from Ohio State.  Somehow, it seems as if the majority of their team is going to be in this draft, and it is reasonable to suspect that the bulk of them are going to fail to amount to much once they reach the NFL.  While Washington's statistical production is borderline respectable, we have to suspect that the leads his team played with created favorable circumstances for him.  The talent that surrounded him at Ohio State also probably gave him a helping hand.  Of course, "the talent" at Ohio State didn't help Adolphus to avoid getting arrested for solicitation of prostitution from an undercover cop.  This raises an important question.  Exactly how screwed up do you have to be as a college football player, in order to be unable to take advantage of the plethora of bimbos that are guided towards members of your college's sports teams?  Situations like this really make you appreciate the more progressive approach employed at Louisville, which would have helped to avoid all of this embarrassment.  Then we come to his rather wretched measurable traits from the combine, which cause huge concerns for us.  He's supposedly viewed as a 2nd round prospect, but we'd avoid him altogether.

Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
Kangaroo Score:  0.039  Agility Score: 0.396  TFL:  5.5
Based upon his entertaining 40 yard dash, I wouldn't be shocked if female fans felt that Jones deserved to be a 1st round pick.  When we consider the rest of his combine results, Jones looks like an exceptionally average athlete.  Across the board, his numbers are pointing towards the idea that he has just average speed, power, agility and explosiveness.  There's nothing necessarily bad about an average result, it just gives us fewer reasons to get excited.  When we looked at his statistical production at Mississippi State, we ran into results that generally fell a bit short of what we would like to see.  While we've only gotten to watch a small sample of his games, we really didn't think he looked bad at all, and sometimes wondered if the way that his team moved him around from DE to 3 technique to nose tackle might have hampered his production.  In the end though, it doesn't matter too much.  We still don't see an undeniable argument to suggest that a high draft pick wouldn't be a bit too risky to use on someone like Jones.  If a team selected Jones in the 3rd or 4th round, we wouldn't necessarily mock them for their decision, but even at that point, we'd probably have other prospects that we preferred over Jones..

Bronson Kaufusi, DE/DT, BYU
Kangaroo Score:  -0.465 Agility Score: 2.001  TFL:  15
We're just going to toss this idea out there, though we don't have any concrete evidence at this point.  We think Kaufusi might be the one who threw Nkemdiche out of the window.  Don't hold us to this.  It's just a theory.  Now, if there if one good thing about drafting a Mormon, it is that you probably don't have to worry about the player getting arrested for beating his wife (wives?) or driving his car into a tree while he is drunk.  That just isn't the way they roll.  If there is one bad thing about drafting a Mormon, it is trying to dig up their stats on a truly terrible college web site.  Oh, and there is also the fact that these guys age like Dominican baseball players.  Kaufusi could be 47 years old, as far as I can tell (or, probably somewhere around 23).  We're kind of interested in Kaufusi, in the same way that we were curious about turning Joey Bosa into a 3-4 defensive end.  Like Bosa, Kaufusi has the frame for that position, but without the need to add much more bulk.  Also, similar to Bosa, Kaufusi's measurable traits would suggest that he would be relying on agility, rather than power, if he were to play this position.  When we've seen him lined up inside, it did appear that this lack of power was frequently an obstacle for him, as he would sometimes get buried by other teams who were running the ball.  Most of his stats against the run were also fairly mediocre.  As a pass rusher, however, his numbers were pretty damn good, even if a fair amount of his success came against lower levels of competition.  We also tried to put him into the computer as a 4-3 defensive end (which is closer to what he played at BYU), but his most exceptional traits became a bit pedestrian when compared to that group of athletes.  We think Kaufusi is a very interesting prospect, but we're just not sure if there is an ideal position for him.  In the end, we suspect he will wind up as a 3-4 DE, who could struggle against the run, but prove useful in nickel formations as a pass rusher.  Currently, people seem to be projecting that he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd to 3rd round, but we would only consider him on the lower end of that range.

Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame
Kangaroo Score:  -0.867 Agility Score: 0.700  TFL:  11.5
Day's combine results and statistical production sort of have us envisioning him as a very poor man's Fletcher Cox.  Like Cox, Day's combine results seem to point towards the idea that he is rather quick and agile, but probably not terribly powerful.  Unfortunately, Cox's result in both areas were still significantly better than what we see with Day. so we wouldn't say that Day's upside was nearly as impressive.  While we thought that Day was a sprightly and amusing fat man to watch, he appears to play much like his measurable traits would suggest he would.  Also, similar to Cox, Day's statistical production in his final college season significantly dwarfed what he had done in prior years, and their impact on their team's defense was roughly similar.  While Day's effectiveness at creating disruptive plays behind the line of scrimmage went up significantly in 2015, Notre Dame also tended to be playing with much more significant leads than they have in recent seasons, which probably created favorable circumstances.  We saw a similar statistical surge from his teammate, the physically unimpressive Romeo Okwara, this past year.  That really makes us wonder if these guys were suddenly becoming quality players, or if they were both benefiting from some difficult to specify change in their environment that might be making them look better than they really should.   Further compounding the problem of Day's surge in 2015, is the question of the opponents he seemed to do the best against.  Of his 4 sacks this year, two came against Texas and Boston College, who were both having ridiculous struggles in pass protection all season (with respective sack rates of 11.2% and 10.1%).  The other two sacks came against Temple and Massachusetts, whose team sack rates are fairly respectable (3.9% and 5.5% respectively), but are both lower tier teams that generally don't face opponents of Notre Dame's caliber.  Against higher quality team's it wasn't uncommon to see Day get buried by his opponents, and for his production to drop significantly.  He's probably only suitable for a team with a 4-3 defense, and if he is going to succeed he'll probably need to be surrounded with teammates who can compensate for his lack of power.  We have some significant doubts about whether he will be able to succeed against the higher quality athletes in the NFL, so we probably wouldn't be willing to spend the 3rd round pick that many people seem to suggest he will cost.

Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State
Kangaroo Score:  1.149 Agility Score: -0.556  TFL:  23
I guess Hargrave could be one of our oddball Quayshawne Buckley picks for this year.  There isn't an abundance of information on him, so we can only speculate based on the little bit of data that is available.  His combine numbers point towards him having fairly ideal speed, quickness and power, though he might be a bit less graceful than what we would hope to see.  When we look at what he did in college, it is safe to say that he was the dominant force on his teams defense.  While you could criticize the level of competition he faced, his numbers would still be impressive even if we cut them in half, and he was rather consistent over the past two seasons.  Still, there are a few areas of concern that we have with Hargrave.  While he was extremely disruptive behind the line of scrimmage, his numbers when he isn't shooting through the opponent's offensive line are a bit lower than we might expect.  He is also 23 years old, which might raise concerns that he was pummeling younger less physically mature players.  Finally, because of his somewhat smaller size (6'1" and 309#), and slightly shorter arms (32"), we would tend to suspect he would only be appealing to teams running a 4-3 defense.  The upside is that we generally only see him ranked as a 4th or 5th round pick.  At that point in the draft, we think taking a shot on a goofy prospect like Hargrave could be a rather appealing option.  The risk versus reward ratio looks reasonable.  Then again, we still think Quayshawne Buckley was probably a better prospect, and look how that has turned out so far.

Dean Lowry, DE/DT, Northwestern
Kangaroo Score:  0.553 Agility Score: 1.297  TFL:  10.75
When you look at Lowry's measurables, and see that he is a hair under 6'6" and around 296#, it practically screams 3-4 defensive end.  His 40 yard dash time of 4.88 seconds, as well as his 10-yard split of 1.70 seconds, were also quite encouraging results for a player of his size.  Then you consider his stubby 31" tyrannosaurus arms and you start to worry a bit.  We generally don't like to fret about arm length too much, but there does come a point where stumpy arms might be a legitimate problem.  We also worry that outside of having a relatively high share of his team's sacks the past few seasons, the rest of his statistical production was a bit weak.  Reilly seems to be leaning towards the idea that we should give up on using him as a 3-4 defensive end, and instead view him as a 3 technique defensive tackle.  While his arm length issues would be less of a concern at that position, it still strikes me as a bit odd to have someone that tall playing such a position, but it might not be the worst idea.  In the end, we both ended up agreeing that Lowry is probably an interesting enough athlete to merit some consideration in the 6th or 7th round.

Connor Wujciak, DT, Boston College
Kangaroo Score:  0.923 Agility Score: 1.477  TFL:  5.25
We were really hoping to find an unpolished gem here, since Wujciak appears to be such an excellent athlete.  Sadly, our little investigation didn't turn up very much.  While he's a fairly ideal physical specimen, his production in college was extremely lackluster.  It was even sadder, when we saw that he was already 23 years old, which should have given him a potential advantage against his younger less physically developed opponents.  As an UDFA, he might be worth bringing in, but I wouldn't expect too much from him.  He kind of reminds me of the type of player that the Seahawks sometimes try to turn into offensive linemen.  Such a switch wouldn't amaze me, since Wujciak does have fairly ideal physical traits for a guard.

Justin Zimmer, DT, Ferris State
Kangaroo Score:  1.061 Agility Score:  1.655  TFL:  19
We're not really sure what goes on at Ferris State University, but we like to think that their focus is on training young people to maintain carnival rides.  Or, perhaps, it could be a film school with a very narrow focus on 1980's teen comedies.  Either way, when a prospect comes from a school like this it presents some significant problems.  First of all, it's hard to get all of the information that we would normally like to have.  Secondly, while we don't mind trying to adjust a player's statistical production to compensate for their level of competition, Ferris State probably requires more of an adjustment than we are used to.  In the end, though, it is still hard to overlook the fact that Zimmer does appear to be a rather high end athlete.  He is explosive, powerful and agile.  When it came to his production in college, it initially appears to be quite overwhelming, which is what you would hope to see.  A player like this better be dominating his opponents at that level of competition.  Unfortunately, there are a number of areas where his statistical production is probably getting inflated by things beyond just playing against bozos.  His tackle numbers consistently seemed to be propped up by a much higher percentage of assisted tackles than we would really like to see.  His productivity as a pass rusher also might be getting blown out of proportion a bit.  Yes, his numbers in his final college season were very impressive, but prior to that we wouldn't say that his ability to disrupt plays behind the line of scrimmage was terribly shocking.  We would have expected that someone with his physical gifts would have been more of a dominant force in his earlier seasons.  Despite all of that nitpicking, we still think he could be a pretty interesting guy to select in the 7th round. 

Vincent Valentine, NT, Nebraska
Kangaroo Score:  1.218 Agility Score: -0.490  TFL:  5.25
As far as I can tell, this guy is actually a video game character, who somehow wound up playing football at Nebraska.  I'm not sure how that works, but we don't intend to explore that subject very deeply.  The only reason we are including Valentine on this list, is that we are weirdly fascinated by the idea of picking up nose tackles at absolutely zero real cost.  Considering that Valentine seems to be viewed as someone who might be an undrafted free agent, he falls right in the desired sweet spot of cheapness relative to physical potential.  His statistical production at Nebraska was nothing to get overly excited about, though you have to view his poor results in 2015 with some open-mindedness since he appears to have been injured for much of the year.  Still, that doesn't concern us too much.  With nose tackles, we just want to find a large immovable blob.  While his Kangaroo Score suggests that he has the sort of lower body power to fill this role, it actually might be underestimating him since there were some irregular results when balancing out his vertical jump and his broad jump.  If we only focused on his broad jump, he would have a result that is 1.999 standard deviations above average for a defensive tackle, and something we find rather exciting.  His agility results, while somewhat mixed, were actually fairly respectable for someone of his size.  I wouldn't say that Reilly and I were terribly impressed by him, in the little we have seen, but he does rather closely resemble the athletic profile we look for in these bozos.  If he can be acquired as an UDFA, he might be worth taking a look at.

Michael Pierce, NT, Samford
Kangaroo Score:  1.302 Agility Score: ?  TFL:  7
This could be a very weird and interesting prospect.  We had no idea who Pierce was, and only stumbled across him while looking for the pro day results of his teammate, James Bradberry.  Yes, his Kangaroo Score definitely shows the sort of lower body power we like to see in a nose tackle, but that is still probably selling him short.  When you just look at his broad jump results, his score leaps to 2.846, which is absolutely insane.  Whether those results are accurate, is something we are still trying to figure out.  It doesn't appear that he took part in the agility drills, but as we've said in the past, we don't really care about that very much when it comes to nose tackles.  Still, we did watch a couple of Pierce's games, and we were kind of stunned by the way he moved.  There didn't appear to be any of the lumbering off-balance awkwardness that you normally expect to see in a player like this.  He actually looked surprisingly nimble.  There were even plays where he (sort of) dropped into coverage, or chased a player to the sidelines, where his relative smoothness just looked absurd.  We still don't have his 10-yard split results (which we can now say was an excellent 1.67 seconds), but his 4.98 second 40 time is also a rather excellent result for a man of his size (6'0.3" and 329#).  That might help to explain the surprising range he has on the field.  When it came to his statistical production, we'd say his results were respectable, but not out of this world.  You also have to consider that Samford plays a lot of games against lower levels of competition, so we might have wanted his numbers to be a bit more gaudy.  If there is an area of some small concern, it is that he is a bit older than we would really prefer, as he will be turning 24 this upcoming November.  Regardless, he is generally projected to go undrafted, which strikes us as a potentially very questionable decision.  We'd probably be tempted to pounce on him in one of the later rounds, though we think even that still might be getting him at a bargain price.  Yup, we're developing a bit of a man-crush on Pierce, though we have to admit that being able to acquire him cheaply is a big part of the appeal.

2016 Free Agent Dumpster Diving

We've been feeling a bit sluggish lately, and were considering the possibility of not doing a post about free agency this year.  It's just not a subject that really excites either Reilly or myself.  Then, we realized that we could use this as an opportunity to ridicule Stephen Ross, and the Dolphins in general, which picked up our spirits a little bit.  After all, we don't really have much else to do until after the NFL Combine.

It really struck us as a mildly interesting coincidence that two of the players who interest us the most, among this year's potential free agents, come from the same poorly run team, the humble Dolphins.  The poor sorry bastards we speak of would be running back Lamar Miller, and wide receiver Rishard Matthews.  Now, don't get me wrong, we're not going to suggest that vast sums of money should be spent on either of these goofballs, we just think they are oddly interesting individuals, with potentially similar issues.  We've liked them both, ever since they were mere draft prospects, and we're just curious as to whether they can escape the black hole that is Miami.

I guess we might as well start off with Lamar Miller, since we've already dropped him into the conversation of misused and under-appreciated players several times in the past.  Watching Miller's career over the past four seasons has been more than just a little bit frustrating for us.  As far as I can tell, Dolphins fans seem to be a bit divided as to how they feel about Miller, which is fine.  Really, it's the attitude of the team's management that confuses us the most.

Over the past few years, there seems to have been a recurring message from the team, that they wished Miller was a more physical runner.  I suppose they want a player who they can consistently pound between the tackles, which is fine.  Such players do exist, and aren't that difficult to find.  The problem is, Miller probably isn't really built for that.  Despite weighing a reported 225 pounds, we still feel his measurable traits from the combine point towards him being an outside the tackles runner, which is they area where he seems to have thrived so far in his career.  With a 0.071 Kangaroo Score, a 0.857 Agility Score, a 40 time of 4.34 seconds (with a 2nd Gear Score of 0.19), his strengths seems to lean in the direction of speed and elusiveness.  You could somewhat fairly say that Miller has more in common with Jamaal Charles than he does with Adrian Peterson, based on these results.  Unfortunately, all the Dolphins appear to see is a fairly large bodied running back, and not the skills that Miller actually possesses.  So, they keep trying to bang that square peg into a round hole.  The Dolphins management are, what we call in this field of study, "idiots".

Now, I'm not saying that Miller can't run the ball between the tackles, but with a player that has rather pedestrian lower body power (again, referring to the Kangaroo Score) it probably is more likely that they are going to require a respectable offensive line to consistently execute those sorts of running plays.  That's probably not something the Dolphins have really provided.

There are some fine stat geeks out there who have made attempts to judge an offensive line's ability to assist running backs on plays like this, but I still find this subject to be a bit murky and debatable.  Instead, I thought we would just show the Dolphins sack rates over the last 5 seasons, which I realize can appear to be an entirely unrelated issue.  Just bear with me here.

Year	Sack Rate
2015	7.10%
2014	7.17%
2013	8.89%
2012	6.83%
2011	9.98%

While the precise extent to which an offensive line is helping or hurting a running back is a bit foggy, I think we can agree that the Dolphins O-Line has been a bit sub-par the past few seasons, when it comes to pass protection.  Some might even say that they suck.  Is it likely that they are significantly better as run blockers? I kind of doubt it, but the sort of athletic traits we look for in pass blockers, are also things we look at in run blockers, and I can't say that many of the players on their line have ever struck me as very interesting in either area.

Let's think about some of the linemen this team employed in 2015.  Even if we can accept that Branden Albert and Mike Pouncey might be above average players (though I have some minor arguments against this), the rest of their line was horribly suspect.  Billy Turner?  Jason Fox?  The laughably horrible Dallas Thomas (who has allowed 16 sacks in his past 25 games)?  No, for the most part these guys are bozos.  It almost makes you wonder if people were too harsh with poor Richie Incognito, and his questionable motivational techniques.  Where is the great Jonathan Martin now, you sensitive hippies?  Oh, right, he's out of the league, because he sucked.  In retrospect, it makes you wonder if the lunatic was right, even if his tactics seemed a bit absurd. 

Let's also consider the extent to which the team has continually tried to ignore what Miller has contributed, despite his circumstances.  Miller has maintained a career rushing average of 4.6 yards, while accumulating 2,930 rushing yards, 887 receiving yards, and a combined total of 22 touchdowns.  Despite that, the Dolphins have only handed the ball off to him about 12.8 times per game over the last 2 seasons.  Yet, people only seem to see the lack of gaudy rushing totals, as if that was entirely his fault, and question the value of resigning him.

What if we looked at the two former 1st round running backs that the Dolphins have brought in from other teams, during the past few seasons, in their attempts to find their savior.  Those players would be Knowshon Moreno and Reggie Bush.  Both of these players came to the Dolphins in their 6th NFL season, with varying amounts of hype, but how had their statistical performances measured up at that point in their careers, compared to what Lamar Miller has done in his first four seasons?

 

Rushing
Player	Att.	Yards	Avg.	TD
R. Bush	524	2090	3.98	17
K. Moreno	845	3468	4.10	26
L. Miller	638	2930	4.59	19

Receiving
Player	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD
R. Bush	294	2142	7.28	12
K. Moreno	157	1401	8.92	9
L. Miller	117	887	7.58	3

Outside of the obvious disparity in opportunities, the results of these other players aren't noticeably better than those of Miller.  You also have to consider that Moreno and Bush were brought to the Dolphins when they were 26, while Miller is still just 24.  We can also point to the fact that Moreno and Bush came to the team having both missed 25% of the their career games due to injury, while Miller has so far only been on the inactive roster for 4.7% of his games.  Yet, Moreno and Bush were brought in with some apparent intention of being utilized as starting running backs, while Miller has always been treated as if he were a step away from getting benched.  Would Miller be treated differently, if he wasn't a former 4th round pick, but a 1st rounder instead?  I suspect so, and that thought irritates me to a surprising degree.

Look, this whole situation is a mystery to me.  I just find it interesting to contemplate the lunatic ways in which the minds of NFL GMs appear to operate.  Am I endorsing that the Dolphins, or anybody else should spend vast sums to acquire Lamar Miller?  No, absolutely not.  I just think it would be nice to see him wind up somewhere that he could be appreciated for what he is, rather than treated like a red-headed step-child.

Okay, that's enough ranting on that subject.  Let's move on to Rishard Matthews.

I think part of what makes Matthews interesting, probably stems from my deranged fascination with Lamar Miller.  There seems to be a similar mount of neglect that has been given to both players.  What this potential neglect says about how the Dolphins are run, and their ability to get the best players on the field, I won't say.  I just think it is a bit interesting to observe.  It's sort of like watching Donald Trump run for president, oddly fascinating and disturbing at the same time.

Now, when Matthews came to the league in the 2012 draft, Reilly and I probably would have ranked him somewhere in the range of our 7th or 8th highest rated receiver prospect for that year.  At a whisker over six feet tall, and weighing (at the time) 217 pounds, he had a nice solid frame.  In terms of speed, his forty times ranged somewhere between 4.54 seconds, and 4.44 seconds (at his pro day).  So that checked out fine as well.  With a 0.651 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.187 Agility Score, his other athletic traits ranged from average to slightly above average.  When it came to his Stat Score (our lazy measure of college production), he had a result of 0.311.  Matthews just kept ticking off the boxes on our checklist of requirements, even if he wasn't necessarily blowing us out of the water.

He struck us as a fairly interesting prospect, that we probably would have projected to go somewhere around the 4th or 5th round.  Unfortunately, he wasn't actually selected until the 7th round, which has probably hurt his ability to get playing time.

Now, the interesting thing to us is how he has gradually been showing signs of progress over the last few seasons, despite getting limited playing.  Let's look at some of his results.

Year	Pass Routes Run	Rec Yards	YPRR	Target%	Catch %	YPC
2015	339	662	1.95	17.4	72.9	15.4
2014	111	135	1.21	18.9	57.1	11.3
2013	376	448	1.19	16.4	66.1	10.9
2012	160	151	0.94	11.2	61.1	13.7

While Matthews raw statistical production has never been terribly impressive, we still think he's been an interesting guy to keep an eye on.  As his Catch % would suggest, he generally seems to have been a fairly reliable target, and perhaps even a bit above average.  The main issue has been in getting him targets.  While his Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) results in his first 3 seasons have generally only hovered around the area where we expect to find most team's 3rd or 4th receiver, they have gradually been improving.

It's really his results from 2015, that make you wonder if he might be about the step up to another level.  With a YPRR of 1.95, along with a catch rate of 72.9%, and a YPC of 15.4, you're seeing results that are really quite impressive.   I wouldn't want to get carried away with any of this, but Matthews could be developing into someone who could be a nice secondary receiver for some team.  We also can't underestimate some of the things that might have been holding him back in Miami, including his quarterback, and the team's lack of investment in developing a former 7th round pick.

The neat thing about all of this, is that I would tend to doubt that Matthews would cost very much to acquire.  Since he hasn't crossed the sort of statistical thresholds that tend to draw the eyes of NFL GMs, and also still carries the burden of being a former low draft pick, I wouldn't expect the bidding to get too high.  Maybe a contract that offers around $3 million/year, at most.  His price could end up a tad higher or lower, but regardless, it would be a fairly low risk investment.  If he performs well, continuing on from where he left off in 2015, your team could get a hell of a deal.  If he stumbles and falls, well, the cost of dropping such a contract, and the dead money hits that would go along with it, are really quite minimal.  It strikes me as a nice low risk, potentially high reward situation.

I guess I'll toss in a few odds and ends types of players here as well, since I have nothing else to do while waiting for the psilocybin to kick in.

Maybe it is a product of being in Baltimore, and hearing the locals fret about the looming departure of guard Kelechi Osemele, but I've really been curious about the number of sites that list him as a more desirable free agent than Brandon Brooks.  Admittedly, Reilly and I have had a bit of a man-crush on Brooks for quite a while, so this might be a product of our own biases.  Still, we truly feel that Brooks should be the much more desirable of the two, and someone we could be tempted to spend stupid amounts of money to acquire.

Assessing the performance of offensive linemen generally opens a huge can of worms, so I'll let you judge this on your own, based on whatever sources you trust.  All I can say is, as far as we can tell, Brooks has consistently been a vastly superior guard to Osemele when it comes to pass protection.  We'd also say that Brooks has been superior in terms of run blocking, though Osemele probably comes closer to narrowing the gap in this area.  If you enjoy watching fat men tussle with each other (and who doesn't enjoy that), really look at these two side by side, and tell me that Brooks isn't the better player.

The main thing that seems to be hurting Brooks' stock this year, were the claims that his run blocking started to slip some in the 2015 season.  Personally, I have my doubts about these claims.  It seems more likely to me that this perception come from the Texans having to replace Arian Foster with more humble talents like Chris Polk and Alfred Blue.  People see the running backs getting less yardage, and for some reason they just didn't reach the conclusion that these running backs were as lame as a a three legged mule.  Instead they blamed the line.  Again, maybe this is all just mindless speculation on my part.

There is also the question of the injury risks that come with Osemele versus Brooks.  Over the past 3 seasons Osemele has missed about 27% of his games due to injuries that seem to keep popping up.  Brooks on the other hand, has only been out for 8.3% of his team's games.

If I had to throw a number out there, as to how high I would bid on Brooks, how high would I go?  That's hard to say.  Considering the lack of attention his looming free agent status seems to be garnering in the press, it is hard to say where things will wind up.  Honestly, I think if his price remained under $7 million/year, I'd have a hard time not pursuing him.  Maybe that sounds a bit high to some people.  I really can't say.  Personally, I think he could end up being a good deal even at a price higher than that, since I think he could end up being viewed as one of the best guards in the game today, if people were paying closer attention to Brooks.

I suppose the final looming free agent prospects that I am interested in might be among the league's scattered defensive backs.  I tend to hate these players, as I think they are overpaid, and inconsistent, but a team still requires that you have a few of them.

I'd probably put cornerback Patrick Robinson at the top of the list.  Robinson seems to be mainly treated with apathy, as far as I can tell, and the one year $2 million contract he played for in 2015 doesn't speak too highly of the league's attitude towards him.  In my opinion, he is an above average athlete, who was probably drafted a tad higher than he should have been, leading to unfortunately high expectations.  As far as I can tell, he has probably performed at a respectable level during his career, on some questionable defenses, and could be a nice bargain.  We're looking for a rebound.  Something in the $2-4 million/year range seems like a minimal risk to me.

Then we have the somewhat dreaded cornerback Josh Robinson on our shopping list.  We've been severely disappointed with his play so far in his career, especially since he is about as perfect an athlete as you could find for that position.  Still, we think he was gradually showing signs of improvement in 2015, so a reclamation project might be tempting.  I'm guessing he should be insanely cheap, maybe $1.5 million/year, so there is no real risk in seeing if his career can be revived.

Finally, I will admit to a slightly strange interest in Vikings' backup safety Robert Blanton.  On paper, he has the sorts of athletic traits we like to see at this position, a 1.177 Agility Score to go along with a 0.947 Kangaroo Score, and he seems to have performed to a respectable level in his appearances in 2014.  No, he might not ever become a star, but I suspect he can be quite respectable...and cheap!  Compared to someone like George Iloka, who will probably also hit free agency, I think Blanton could be 90% of the player for maybe 20% of the price.  I mean, how much can Blanton really cost, maybe $1.5 million/year?  I've probably got that under my couch cushions.

I guess there might be a few more players that interest me, at the right price, such as linebacker Vincent Rey, running back Robert Turbin or the perpetually ignored and forgotten defensive tackle Quayshawne Buckley.  In the end, though, I've already spent enough time prattling about the unloved and unappreciated, which just reminds me too much of the cold inattention I receive from my ingrate parents.  So, I guess I'll just pour a drink and have a good cry, much as I suspect many of these players will be doing on March 9th.