We've constantly found ourselves running behind schedule, when it came to our attempts to pick apart this year's draft prospects. Reilly and I also found ourselves struggling to find the time to put together our prospect shopping list, The Little Big Board, for our annual bout of idiocy, The Ozzie Newsome Challenge. This all should have been wrapped up about a week ago, but we've been feeling a bit sluggish lately.
In our last two editions of the Little Big Board, we wound up with 56 prospects that we would have been willing to pursue for our fictional team. This year, we struggled to come up with 50. Even then, we probably included quite a few players that we normally wouldn't really be very happy with. The list probably would have been closer to 40, if we didn't toss in some "filler", to give us some more options. We're probably going to have to spend the next 24 hours reevaluating this list, to see if we can improve it, but for now, it is what it is.
1st Round
Jared Goff, QB, Cal
Vernon Hargreaves MMXVI, CB, Florida
Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida St.
DeForest Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
Sheldon Rankins, NT/DT, Louisville
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi ?
Joey Bosa, DE/OLB, Ohio State
2nd Round
Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma St
Kevin Byard, SS/FS, Middle Tennessee State *
Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State
Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise St.
3rd Round
Sean Davis, CB/S, Maryland
Connor McGovern, G, Missouri *
Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Bronson Kaufusi, DE/DT, BYU
Vernon Butler, NT, Louisiana Tech
James Bradberry, CB, Samford
Darius Jackson, RB, Eastern Michigan *
Jonathan Bullard, DE/DT, Florida
4th Round
Tyrone Holmes, OLB, Montana *
Jordan Lucas FS/SS, Penn State
Joe Thuney, G/C, North Carolina State
Kalan Reed, CB, Southern Mississippi
Xavien Howard CB, Baylor
Daniel Lasco, RB, California
Jatavis Brown, OLB, Akron
Nick Kwiatkoski OLB, West Virginia
Ben Braunecker, TE, Harvard
5th Round
Joe Haeg, T, North Dakota State
Brandon Shell, T, South Carolina
KeiVarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame
Jordan Jenkins, DE/OLB, Georgia
Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State
Miles Killebrew SS, Southern Utah
Brandon Chubb, ILB, Wake Forest
6th Round
Michael Pierce, NT, Samford *
Chris Moore, WR, Cincinnati
Kavon Frazier SS, Central Michigan
Ian Wells CB, Ohio
Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
Eric Murray, CB, Minnesota
Isaac Seumalo, C, Oregon State
Jason Fanaika, DE, Utah
7th Round
Justin Zimmer, DT, Ferris State
Jake Brendel, C, UCLA
Micah Awe, ILB, Texas Tech
Mike Jordan, CB, Missouri Western State
Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin
Yeah, we're not too happy with how this list turned out. Part of the problem is, we just don't think this year's pool of prospects is particularly exceptional. Still, some positions might present better options than others.
The interior defensive line prospects look pretty good, in general. There are probably some pretty good defensive backs out there. The offensive linemen, as a group, seem to at least have a number of solid possibilities. All things considered, a team can probably find some decent options at these positions, without too much difficulty.
On the other hand, we really don't like this year's group of wide receivers. The outside pass rushers seem to have some reasonably reliable options, but almost nobody we have a great passion for. The linebackers seem a bit ho-hum. The running backs look like a steaming pile of mediocrities, whose futures will be more determined by their offensive lines, than their individual greatness. It's all a bit frustrating.
With so many of the flashier positions appearing to be a bit weak, we're leaning towards the idea that this might be a good draft for teams to take a very cautious approach. They might want players to fill certain positions, but the talent might not be as plentiful in some of the more prestigious areas. This feels like a year where some prospects will have to emerge as great players, despite not fitting a lot of the normal criteria that makes success relatively predictable. We might have to count on a few anomalies to bolster this year's class. That's fine, and is a normal part of the process, but this year it might matter a bit more for some positions.
In general, we're strongly leaning towards the idea that this year might
be a fairly ideal time to trade current draft picks for future ones.
The premium that most teams charge for such trades is almost always a
huge benefit for the team with less immediate concerns, but we also suspect that next year's pool of talent will
probably also be a bit better. It would almost have to be.
I currently suspect that Team Kangaroo is probably going to load up on defensive backs this year, as there are a number of them that we like a fair bit, even if we think players in the secondary tend to be unstable and overpaid commodities. We just feel that there are potentially some nice options out there, who could provide reasonably good value to us. Plus, it is an area that we have neglected in the past few years, to some degree. Maybe we can fill some of these holes in our fictional roster, while picking up a few other interesting odds and ends.
We'd also like to figure out a few more names to add to our list of considerations for the 2nd round. Based upon the rumors of who is likely to be selected in that range, we weren't excited about many of the prospects. If we can't find someone whom we are comfortable with selecting in that range, it could present us with some problems.
One of the more peculiar situations we might be faced with, is the Joey Bosa question. Since Team Kangaroo will be making its first pick at #6, there is probably a reasonable chance that he will still be available, assuming that we don't trade down. For reasons that might seem a bit peculiar, the possibility of selecting him, or leaving him for someone else, causes us a bit of discomfort. This has possibly led us to over-analyze him a bit, as he probably scares us a bit more than a lot of the other options we might be faced with.
We've already discussed him a fair bit, and picked over his peculiar athletic traits, but he still strikes us as a very odd duck. Let's ignore some of the rumors about his personality and off the field behavior, which are largely lacking concrete evidence, though they make him sound like a bit of a nut. Let's also skip past some of the peculiar issues and concerns about his statistical production, which remind us a bit of the dreaded Vernon Gholston. Our biggest worry is in figuring out the more objective issues of how he might be able to succeed, based on his interesting but somewhat strange athletic traits.
While his combine results suggest that he has rather exceptional agility, and moderately respectable lower body power, the overall picture is a bit weird. While his agility results would suggest that he could thrive when given a bit more space to maneuver around an opposing offensive tackle, as a 3-4 OLB, his numbers didn't suggest that his speed or explosiveness were ideal for this role. His measurable traits suggested that he might not have the sort of exceptional burst to consistently threaten the outside edge on an offensive tackle, where his agility would then become a huge advantage. When we ignore his unweighted explosiveness, and just look at raw lower body power, his results suggested that he was probably a tad bit above average for a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps not as overwhelmingly gifted as a lot of the players we normally see as the top players at this position. Athletically, he is quite respectable, but really does seem to fit the term "tweener" that is sometimes thrown around. He really strikes us as someone who might belong somewhere between the 4-3 defensive end position, and the 3-4 OLB position, and the number of historical players who are directly comparable to him are a bit strange.
So, we are left with a player who might not have an ideal position fit, who rumors suggest might be a bit a bit of an oddball off the field (you can explore that subject on your own), and whose statistical production was a tad below what we normally associate with top level pass rushers, even in his best college season. Risk, risk, risk. Yet he is almost certainly going to be a top 10 pick, and is probably one of the better options at his position, at least for this year.
While we wouldn't be surprised in the least if he turns out to be a very good player, we probably wouldn't want to bet on him becoming a truly great one. Still, we feel like he probably has a reasonable shot at becoming one of the better pass rushers to come out of this (potentially) relatively weak class. Maybe we should take him, and not feel so concerned about the variety of issues that seem to orbit him. We're really not sure. In the end, we just feel like he might be a bit more of a coin flip than we really like. If we're going to pick someone in the top 10, we would prefer to feel more confident that he is likely to be a home run. With Bosa, we just worry that his ceiling might not be quite high enough to merit such a selection.
Oh well, I guess that is enough rambling for now. We'll continue to mull things over during the next 24 hours, before all of the madness begins, and reconsider some of our idiotic views. If anyone wants to throw in their two cents, they are more than welcome to do so.
Showing posts with label Little Big Board. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Little Big Board. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
The 2015 Little Big Board
Well, we're down to the last week before the 2015 NFL Draft, so that means we are busy preparing for our annual game of delusional egomania, the Ozzie Newsome Challenge. For this year's Little Big Board, we've narrowed down our preferred draft targets to 56 prospects, which is coincidentally the same number that we had last year. It's just like before, only different.
The hardest part of this annual process, is the challenge of coming to some sort of agreement with Reilly over who we should include in the final list. In the end, Reilly probably wins in most of our arguments over which prospects to consider, but we do tend reach a common ground fairly frequently. It's almost as if we have developed some sort of mind meld, making it very difficult to tell us apart from one another.
We're never really satisfied with any list we end up making, and keep wanting to rearrange things. As we have done in the past, we've left out some prospects we might be interested in, simply because we felt it was incredibly unlikely that they would fall to a point in the draft that we would be comfortable/capable of selecting them. We also end up having to include a fair number of 'filler' players, who we might not really want, simply because we want to have some fallback options. Regardless, this is where we are at for now, though we'll undoubtedly change our minds in the next five minutes.
1st Round
Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon*
Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA*
Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut*
Eric Rowe, CB, Utah*
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Cameron Erving, OT/OG/C, Florida
2nd Round
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Preston Smith DE, Mississippi St.
Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson
Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart
Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas
Xavier Cooper, DT, Memphis
T.J. Clemmings, OT/OG, Pittsburgh
3rd Round
Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary*
Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson
Carl Davis, DT/NT, Iowa
Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DT, Southern Miss.*
Henry Anderson, DT/DE, Stanford
Adrian Amos, FS, Penn State
4th Round
Mark Glowinski, OG, West Virginia*
Mitch Morse, OG/C, Missouri
Ben Heeney, ILB, Kansas
Craig Mager, CB, Texas State*
Cedric Thompson, SS/FS, Minnesota*
Darryl Roberts, CB, Marshall
Quayshawne Buckley, DT, Idaho*
Clayton Geathers, SS, UCF
Steven Nelson, CB, Oregon State
Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern
Alex Carter, CB/S, Stanford
5th Round
Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan
Austin Reiter, C, USF*
Bobby McCain, CB, Memphis
Justin Coleman, CB, Tennessee
Kyle Emanuel, DE/OLB North Dakota State
Corey Grant, RB, Auburn
Shaq Riddick, DE/OLB, West Virginia
Davis Tull, DE/OLB, Chattanooga
Casey Pierce, TE, Kent State
6th Round
DeAndre Carter, WR, Sacremento St.*
Geremy Davis, WR, Connecticut
Jake Waters, QB, Kansas State*
Brian Suite, FS, Utah St.
Jordan Hicks, LB, Texas
Louis Trinca-Pasat, DT, Iowa
Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M
Terrell Watson, RB, Azusa Pacific
7th Round
Dreamius Smith, RB, West Virginia
Brian Parker, TE, Albany
Micheal Liedtke, OG, Illinois State
Ryan Murphy, SS, Oregon State
Brian Mihalik, DT/OT, Boston College
Kristjan Sokoli, DT, Buffalo
Laurence Gibson, OT, Virginia Tech
Frank Clark, DE/OLB, Michigan
Cameron Ontko, LB/SS, Cal Poly
We actually had a fairly difficult time cobbling together our shopping list for this year. Part of the problem was that we don't think this year's crop of players is really that exceptional, which makes it difficult to feel comfortable with using a high draft pick on many of the prospects. As we roll through the upcoming week, we'll probably reshuffle this list a fair bit, and maybe add some new names, but for now we're just trying to make up our mind as to how we would use up our 10 draft picks.
Since we have to weigh our own opinions against the general perception of where players are likely to be selected, this forces us to elevate many prospects higher than where we feel they probably deserve to be selected. This is a very tricky problem. On the one hand, we don't have a problem with the idea that the hive mind is probably a fairly accurate predictor of where players will be chosen. It tends to be reasonably accurate from year to year, particularly in the first few rounds. Perhaps even more important than selecting a player based on their abilities, we are really forced to take the 'popularity contest' aspect of the draft into consideration. So, when we are picking, we aren't necessarily trying to choose the best player, as much as we are trying to choose the best player who we think won't be available at our next pick. That's a very different sort of problem to solve, and it causes us a great deal of annoyance.
After all, when most people are projecting that Florida State defensive tackle, Eddie Goldman, is going to be a 1st round pick, this creates some confusion for us. We don't think he's the least bit interesting, but we sort of have to embrace the lunacy that suggests he is highly regarded, though we wouldn't take him even if he fell to the 7th round. Honestly, we think here is likely to be a much higher bust rate this year among the players projected to be taken in the first two rounds, at least relative to an average draft. So, is the public's perception of the draft off the mark this year? Or, are teams really going to be taking a lot of potentially foolish gambles? It's hard to say, but we have to approach this as if a lot of madness is going to unfold, and adjust our rankings accordingly.
The plan, so far, is to play things a bit safe in the first 3 rounds. Then, from the 4th round on, we're probably going to start pursuing a lot of prospects who frequently aren't even projected to be drafted. It will be interesting to see how this works out. Either way, it all start with the 1st round, so here are some of the options we are currently considering.
The Boring And Conservative Pick, Jake Fisher
Among the players who will likely be available at the 26th pick, Jake Fisher is probably one of the safest possible choices. The odds that he won't become at least an adequate right tackle seem fairly slim. In fact, we suspect he will probably end up becoming a better player than half of the people who will be selected before him, assuming that the general projections of where his peers will be picked is correct.
The problem is that we are simply getting tired of choosing offensive linemen, and it just isn't a pressing need for Team Kangaroo. We would really prefer to aim for a different position, to help round out our roster, even if it means taking a bit more of a risk. In the end, however, we might be forced to select Fisher, simply because the odds are so strongly in his favor, relative to the other prospects who will be available when it is our turn to pick. It would be a boring pick, but slow and steady wins the race.
Another Cowardly Option, Eric Kendricks
Taking an inside linebacker probably wouldn't sell a lot of tickets for Team Kangaroo, but this is a pick that wouldn't make us the least bit uncomfortable. Yes, non-pass rushing linebackers aren't a terribly valuable commodity. Yes, Kendricks is sometimes criticized for being a slightly smaller prospect than some of his peers. Yes, finding a linebacker isn't a huge pressing concern for our imaginary roster. Despite all of that, we still like him quite a bit compared to the other prospects who might be available to us at the 26th pick, and think he has a pretty good chance of becoming the best linebacker in this draft class. Choosing Kendricks might not be exciting, but he doesn't strike us as a player that would keep us up at night feeling regret over his selection.
The Gamble On Potential, Byron Jones & Eric Rowe
Depending on what the Ravens choose to do, and how foolish their selection ends up being, we might be willing to do something that the computer feels is a bit riskier by choosing Jones or Rowe. We have very mixed feelings about this option.
In the end, we still don't think either of these players deserve to be selected before the late 2nd or maybe 3rd round. Reilly and I view them both as potentially better gambles than last year's Phillip Gaines (who we also liked), who was selected in the beginning of the 3rd round, but there is still a limit on how highly we would value them. Like Gaines, Jones and Rowe are mostly interesting because of their physical potential, with some lingering concerns about their experience and the quality of the opponents they faced. We also don't generally place as much value on cornerbacks as many people do, and feel this is a bit of an overrated position.
Despite all of that, this is a position that we are going to have to address at some point, and the market seems to be shifting to where we feel it is increasingly unlikely that either of these players will be available at our 2nd pick. So, we might need to reach a bit. We also can't deny that the history of how teams give starting opportunities to cornerbacks plays a role in this possible decision. If a corner isn't selected in the first 2 rounds, it can become quite a bit more unlikely that a team will demonstrate much faith in them, or give them a real opportunity. It's very frustrating.
The drawback to being cautious, and passing on both of them, is that there probably won't be any other cornerbacks available who have nearly the same upside. With both of these players, it is all about potential, of which they have an abundance. They both possess an ideal combination of size, speed, power, agility and explosiveness that puts them in an excellent position to succeed. When it comes to making a play on the ball, we think Jones has the edge. We think Rowe is probably the better tackler, and of the two of them has a better shot at moving to safety, if playing at corner doesn't work out. While we're not thrilled with the way these players' draft projections are being pushed higher and higher, we'd probably be willing to take a shot on them at the end of the 1st round, if the Ravens themselves do something that we feel is overly risky.
Late Round Madness
While we feel a fair bit of pessimism about many of the players who are projected to be high draft picks this year, we wouldn't say that this is a bad draft class. We just think it is maybe a bit average. Overall, we're not thrilled with the fact that this is the year in which we have 10 draft picks to spend, though we do think there are a fair number of interesting mid-to-late round picks that are potentially as interesting as some of the higher selections. This is where we could start to behave very recklessly.
The tricky thing here is that some of the players we find to be the most interesting, might not get drafted at all. That's a huge concern for us. Should we use our late round picks on players that we expect will get drafted, even if we don't feel as strongly about them? There is a good argument for this, since those sorts of players are more likely to get an opportunity, even if they will eventually fizzle and disappear. Or, should we aim for the players that the computer believes have legitimate ability and upside, even if it doesn't appear that they are likely to get as much of a chance to play? Right now, we are kind of leaning towards the second option, even though we realize that this could severely hurt our chances of success. We would just have to hope that the players' talents eventually shine through and get them noticed in training camp.
Take Quayshawne Buckley, for example. Most sites rank him as a player who is unlikely to be selected before the end of the draft, if he even gets selected at all. While there are some aspects to Buckley that worry us, the computer still thinks he is potentially one of the 5 most interesting defensive tackle prospects in this year's class, and is conceivably worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. If we chose him that high in the draft, it would probably be viewed as a massive reach, and a waste of draft capital. At the same time, if he is even half the player we think he could be, it would seem foolish to ignore the possibility that some other team isn't giving him greater consideration than many people might suspect. Should we just trust what the data suggests, and make the pick? Or should we count on the possibility that teams could be overlooking him? While we will try to resist the urge to do something stupid here, we can't make any promises.
Jake Waters and Austin Reiter are some other players that fall into a similar position. Most people don't seem to expect them to get drafted at all. The computer thinks they are probably among the five most interesting prospects at their respective positions. Should we select them, or should we simply aim for a player for whom we suspect NFL teams currently have a high opinion? While I might think that players such as Bryce Petty and Reese Dismukes, who play the same positions as these less talked about prospects, will have a much greater likelihood of getting an opportunity, I don't really have any confidence that they won't be disappointments in the long run. In the end, I suspect we are going to spend a lot of our draft picks on players that don't make much sense to many people. That's why we are very fortunate that so few people actually read anything that we write. The possibility for embarrassment and criticism is greatly reduced by our insignificance.
That's where things stand for now. Anybody who wants to make an argument for the inclusion of another prospect, or to promote/demote one of the players in our list, is welcome to make suggestions. This week is your final chance to convince us to change our minds, before we do something stupid. We're not feeling terribly excited about this year's draft anyway, so we're definitely open to some last minute ideas.
As we suggested last year, if anybody ends up feeling like doing their own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team interests them, we'd be curious about seeing your results. So, feel free to email us the outcome, or post the results in the comments section.
The hardest part of this annual process, is the challenge of coming to some sort of agreement with Reilly over who we should include in the final list. In the end, Reilly probably wins in most of our arguments over which prospects to consider, but we do tend reach a common ground fairly frequently. It's almost as if we have developed some sort of mind meld, making it very difficult to tell us apart from one another.
 |
| We're sort of like a very poor man's Voltron. |
We're never really satisfied with any list we end up making, and keep wanting to rearrange things. As we have done in the past, we've left out some prospects we might be interested in, simply because we felt it was incredibly unlikely that they would fall to a point in the draft that we would be comfortable/capable of selecting them. We also end up having to include a fair number of 'filler' players, who we might not really want, simply because we want to have some fallback options. Regardless, this is where we are at for now, though we'll undoubtedly change our minds in the next five minutes.
1st Round
Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon*
Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA*
Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut*
Eric Rowe, CB, Utah*
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Cameron Erving, OT/OG/C, Florida
2nd Round
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Preston Smith DE, Mississippi St.
Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson
Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart
Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas
Xavier Cooper, DT, Memphis
T.J. Clemmings, OT/OG, Pittsburgh
3rd Round
Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary*
Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson
Carl Davis, DT/NT, Iowa
Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DT, Southern Miss.*
Henry Anderson, DT/DE, Stanford
Adrian Amos, FS, Penn State
4th Round
Mark Glowinski, OG, West Virginia*
Mitch Morse, OG/C, Missouri
Ben Heeney, ILB, Kansas
Craig Mager, CB, Texas State*
Cedric Thompson, SS/FS, Minnesota*
Darryl Roberts, CB, Marshall
Quayshawne Buckley, DT, Idaho*
Clayton Geathers, SS, UCF
Steven Nelson, CB, Oregon State
Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern
Alex Carter, CB/S, Stanford
5th Round
Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan
Austin Reiter, C, USF*
Bobby McCain, CB, Memphis
Justin Coleman, CB, Tennessee
Kyle Emanuel, DE/OLB North Dakota State
Corey Grant, RB, Auburn
Shaq Riddick, DE/OLB, West Virginia
Davis Tull, DE/OLB, Chattanooga
Casey Pierce, TE, Kent State
6th Round
DeAndre Carter, WR, Sacremento St.*
Geremy Davis, WR, Connecticut
Jake Waters, QB, Kansas State*
Brian Suite, FS, Utah St.
Jordan Hicks, LB, Texas
Louis Trinca-Pasat, DT, Iowa
Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M
Terrell Watson, RB, Azusa Pacific
7th Round
Dreamius Smith, RB, West Virginia
Brian Parker, TE, Albany
Micheal Liedtke, OG, Illinois State
Ryan Murphy, SS, Oregon State
Brian Mihalik, DT/OT, Boston College
Kristjan Sokoli, DT, Buffalo
Laurence Gibson, OT, Virginia Tech
Frank Clark, DE/OLB, Michigan
Cameron Ontko, LB/SS, Cal Poly
We actually had a fairly difficult time cobbling together our shopping list for this year. Part of the problem was that we don't think this year's crop of players is really that exceptional, which makes it difficult to feel comfortable with using a high draft pick on many of the prospects. As we roll through the upcoming week, we'll probably reshuffle this list a fair bit, and maybe add some new names, but for now we're just trying to make up our mind as to how we would use up our 10 draft picks.
Since we have to weigh our own opinions against the general perception of where players are likely to be selected, this forces us to elevate many prospects higher than where we feel they probably deserve to be selected. This is a very tricky problem. On the one hand, we don't have a problem with the idea that the hive mind is probably a fairly accurate predictor of where players will be chosen. It tends to be reasonably accurate from year to year, particularly in the first few rounds. Perhaps even more important than selecting a player based on their abilities, we are really forced to take the 'popularity contest' aspect of the draft into consideration. So, when we are picking, we aren't necessarily trying to choose the best player, as much as we are trying to choose the best player who we think won't be available at our next pick. That's a very different sort of problem to solve, and it causes us a great deal of annoyance.
After all, when most people are projecting that Florida State defensive tackle, Eddie Goldman, is going to be a 1st round pick, this creates some confusion for us. We don't think he's the least bit interesting, but we sort of have to embrace the lunacy that suggests he is highly regarded, though we wouldn't take him even if he fell to the 7th round. Honestly, we think here is likely to be a much higher bust rate this year among the players projected to be taken in the first two rounds, at least relative to an average draft. So, is the public's perception of the draft off the mark this year? Or, are teams really going to be taking a lot of potentially foolish gambles? It's hard to say, but we have to approach this as if a lot of madness is going to unfold, and adjust our rankings accordingly.
The plan, so far, is to play things a bit safe in the first 3 rounds. Then, from the 4th round on, we're probably going to start pursuing a lot of prospects who frequently aren't even projected to be drafted. It will be interesting to see how this works out. Either way, it all start with the 1st round, so here are some of the options we are currently considering.
The Boring And Conservative Pick, Jake Fisher
Among the players who will likely be available at the 26th pick, Jake Fisher is probably one of the safest possible choices. The odds that he won't become at least an adequate right tackle seem fairly slim. In fact, we suspect he will probably end up becoming a better player than half of the people who will be selected before him, assuming that the general projections of where his peers will be picked is correct.
The problem is that we are simply getting tired of choosing offensive linemen, and it just isn't a pressing need for Team Kangaroo. We would really prefer to aim for a different position, to help round out our roster, even if it means taking a bit more of a risk. In the end, however, we might be forced to select Fisher, simply because the odds are so strongly in his favor, relative to the other prospects who will be available when it is our turn to pick. It would be a boring pick, but slow and steady wins the race.
Another Cowardly Option, Eric Kendricks
Taking an inside linebacker probably wouldn't sell a lot of tickets for Team Kangaroo, but this is a pick that wouldn't make us the least bit uncomfortable. Yes, non-pass rushing linebackers aren't a terribly valuable commodity. Yes, Kendricks is sometimes criticized for being a slightly smaller prospect than some of his peers. Yes, finding a linebacker isn't a huge pressing concern for our imaginary roster. Despite all of that, we still like him quite a bit compared to the other prospects who might be available to us at the 26th pick, and think he has a pretty good chance of becoming the best linebacker in this draft class. Choosing Kendricks might not be exciting, but he doesn't strike us as a player that would keep us up at night feeling regret over his selection.
The Gamble On Potential, Byron Jones & Eric Rowe
Depending on what the Ravens choose to do, and how foolish their selection ends up being, we might be willing to do something that the computer feels is a bit riskier by choosing Jones or Rowe. We have very mixed feelings about this option.
In the end, we still don't think either of these players deserve to be selected before the late 2nd or maybe 3rd round. Reilly and I view them both as potentially better gambles than last year's Phillip Gaines (who we also liked), who was selected in the beginning of the 3rd round, but there is still a limit on how highly we would value them. Like Gaines, Jones and Rowe are mostly interesting because of their physical potential, with some lingering concerns about their experience and the quality of the opponents they faced. We also don't generally place as much value on cornerbacks as many people do, and feel this is a bit of an overrated position.
Despite all of that, this is a position that we are going to have to address at some point, and the market seems to be shifting to where we feel it is increasingly unlikely that either of these players will be available at our 2nd pick. So, we might need to reach a bit. We also can't deny that the history of how teams give starting opportunities to cornerbacks plays a role in this possible decision. If a corner isn't selected in the first 2 rounds, it can become quite a bit more unlikely that a team will demonstrate much faith in them, or give them a real opportunity. It's very frustrating.
The drawback to being cautious, and passing on both of them, is that there probably won't be any other cornerbacks available who have nearly the same upside. With both of these players, it is all about potential, of which they have an abundance. They both possess an ideal combination of size, speed, power, agility and explosiveness that puts them in an excellent position to succeed. When it comes to making a play on the ball, we think Jones has the edge. We think Rowe is probably the better tackler, and of the two of them has a better shot at moving to safety, if playing at corner doesn't work out. While we're not thrilled with the way these players' draft projections are being pushed higher and higher, we'd probably be willing to take a shot on them at the end of the 1st round, if the Ravens themselves do something that we feel is overly risky.
Late Round Madness
While we feel a fair bit of pessimism about many of the players who are projected to be high draft picks this year, we wouldn't say that this is a bad draft class. We just think it is maybe a bit average. Overall, we're not thrilled with the fact that this is the year in which we have 10 draft picks to spend, though we do think there are a fair number of interesting mid-to-late round picks that are potentially as interesting as some of the higher selections. This is where we could start to behave very recklessly.
The tricky thing here is that some of the players we find to be the most interesting, might not get drafted at all. That's a huge concern for us. Should we use our late round picks on players that we expect will get drafted, even if we don't feel as strongly about them? There is a good argument for this, since those sorts of players are more likely to get an opportunity, even if they will eventually fizzle and disappear. Or, should we aim for the players that the computer believes have legitimate ability and upside, even if it doesn't appear that they are likely to get as much of a chance to play? Right now, we are kind of leaning towards the second option, even though we realize that this could severely hurt our chances of success. We would just have to hope that the players' talents eventually shine through and get them noticed in training camp.
Take Quayshawne Buckley, for example. Most sites rank him as a player who is unlikely to be selected before the end of the draft, if he even gets selected at all. While there are some aspects to Buckley that worry us, the computer still thinks he is potentially one of the 5 most interesting defensive tackle prospects in this year's class, and is conceivably worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. If we chose him that high in the draft, it would probably be viewed as a massive reach, and a waste of draft capital. At the same time, if he is even half the player we think he could be, it would seem foolish to ignore the possibility that some other team isn't giving him greater consideration than many people might suspect. Should we just trust what the data suggests, and make the pick? Or should we count on the possibility that teams could be overlooking him? While we will try to resist the urge to do something stupid here, we can't make any promises.
Jake Waters and Austin Reiter are some other players that fall into a similar position. Most people don't seem to expect them to get drafted at all. The computer thinks they are probably among the five most interesting prospects at their respective positions. Should we select them, or should we simply aim for a player for whom we suspect NFL teams currently have a high opinion? While I might think that players such as Bryce Petty and Reese Dismukes, who play the same positions as these less talked about prospects, will have a much greater likelihood of getting an opportunity, I don't really have any confidence that they won't be disappointments in the long run. In the end, I suspect we are going to spend a lot of our draft picks on players that don't make much sense to many people. That's why we are very fortunate that so few people actually read anything that we write. The possibility for embarrassment and criticism is greatly reduced by our insignificance.
That's where things stand for now. Anybody who wants to make an argument for the inclusion of another prospect, or to promote/demote one of the players in our list, is welcome to make suggestions. This week is your final chance to convince us to change our minds, before we do something stupid. We're not feeling terribly excited about this year's draft anyway, so we're definitely open to some last minute ideas.
As we suggested last year, if anybody ends up feeling like doing their own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team interests them, we'd be curious about seeing your results. So, feel free to email us the outcome, or post the results in the comments section.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
The 2014 Little Big Board
Well, we are getting closer to the big day. While NFL teams finish arranging their Big Boards of NFL draft prospects, I thought it was time for Team Kangaroo to throw together our Little Big Board, in preparation for the 2014 Ozzie Newsome Challenge. While NFL teams may have around 150-200 prospects that they would consider selecting, our list is noticeably shorter with only 56 prospects that we have some degree of serious interest in acquiring. We're just going to be a bit more selective, and choose to take a pass on a lot of the prospects that are out there. I suspect these players won't be too offended by what I think.
As we proceed on our drunken vision quest, we must brace ourselves for the perils that lie ahead. The possibility of failure is great. The potential for embarrassment is always on my mind. The only thing we can do is to have faith in the numbers, and meditate on our spirit animal for guidance.
1st Round
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Joel Bitonio, OT/G, Nevada *
Jason Verrett, CB, TCU*
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.*
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina*
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
2nd Round
Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana*
Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State*
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St.
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington St.*
Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice*
Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi St.
Rashede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
3rd Round
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College*
Carl Bradford, DE/OLB, Arizona St.*
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno St.
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB/S, Nebraska
Jackson Jeffcoat, DE/OLB, Texas
Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
4th Round
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor*
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern*
Andre Williams, RB, Boston College*
James Gayle, DE, Virginia Tech*
Charles Leno, OT/G, Boise St.
Christian Kirksey, LB, Iowa
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
5th Round
Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State*
Gabe Ikard, C, Oklahoma*
Garrett Scott, OT/OG, Marshall
Matt Patchan, OT, Boston College
Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame
John Urschel, OG/C, Penn State
Travis Carrie, CB/S, Ohio
Bennett Jackson, CB, Notre Dame
6th Round
Carlos Fields, LB,Winston-Salem State*
Morgan Breslin, LB USC
Mike Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley St.
Justin Britt, OT, Missouri
Ryan Groy, G, Wisconsin
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT, McGill
Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
Preston Brown, LB, Louisville
Dontae Johnson, CB/S, NC State
Wesley Johnson, OT, Vanderbilt
7th Round
Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
Beau Allen, DT, Wisconsin
Stephen Houston, RB, Indiana
Brock Coyle, LB, Montana
Terrence Fede, DE, Marist
Brandon Watts, LB/S, Georgia Tech
Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech
If you ask me again in five minutes, I'm sure that the order I've listed these players in will have already changed. The order that the players are listed in doesn't necessarily reflect my opinion of the players, or suggest where I think they 'deserve to be selected'. This is all basically a compromised mash-up of my opinions, mixed with the practical reality that players will be selected in an order that doesn't mesh with my views about certain issues. There are players who will probably go in the 5th round, that I feel are better than some people who will be taken in the 1st round. To some extent, I also need to factor in whether I think a player will even be given a real opportunity to compete for a starting job, as the perception that teams have of certain players can really be the biggest obstacle to success in many cases. It's all just a matter of figuring out, to the best of my ability, just how highly I would need to pick someone, in order to acquire them. The goal is to have as many options in mind as possible, for each round, even if I'm not a huge fan of all of them.
As the draft unfolds, I will undoubtedly be frantically reshuffling the Little Big Board, and quite possibly tossing in extra names to fill in some gaps. If a player isn't included in this list, it doesn't necessarily mean that I think they are a bum (though it might mean that). It could just mean that I don't think there is a strong probability that they will fall to the point where I would be comfortable selecting them. Other players, might not be suitable for the team I am drafting for, the Ravens. In some cases, I might be very interested in a player, but have some uncertainty as to whether a team will play them at the position that I think best suits them. That creates a huge problem, since I have no say in this issue, and it forces me to put a greater emphasis on selecting players that I suspect will do well regardless of what team they wind up on (since I will have no idea what team will end up selecting them).
Since Team Kangaroo's first pick will come with the 17th overall selection (barring any trades that might occur), we'll mainly focus on players who should be available at that point. Currently, there are a couple of likely directions I could see us headed in, and I have laid out a few of these potential scenarios below.
The Ultra-Conservative Approach, Joel Bitonio
Based upon who I normally see falling to the Ravens 1st pick (the 17th overall), I am forced into an awkward position. I just don't feel that I'm going to be terribly thrilled with the popular options that the Ravens will be selecting from at this point. On the other hand, there are some players who I am very interested in, that will probably be available a bit later, though they probably won't fall to the Ravens 2nd pick. This makes the option of trading back quite appealing, though I obviously have no say in what Ozzie Newsome will do.
If I selected OT/OG Joel Bitonio with the 17th overall pick, I'm sure that people would give me a fair bit of grief. The term 'reach' would most likely be thrown at me for such a selection. I suspect a bit of heckling and ridicule would be directed at me, leading to a tear soaked pillow as I sob myself to sleep. Nevertheless, it's an option I could happily live with.
Since we are building off of the alternate timeline that began with last year's draft, some things look a bit different for Team Kangaroo, than they might for the Ravens. I obviously drafted numerous offensive linemen last year, with Terron Armstead being the most highly selected of these players. Seeing as how Armstead currently appears to be the Saints' starting left tackle, and seems to be showing some signs of promising potential, it has a significant effect on our view of things. For one, we might not have been forced into trading for Eugene Monroe (which would have given Team Kangaroo 2 extra selections in this draft, though we'll overlook that), nor would we have had to resign Monroe. Despite all of that, Team Kangaroo still needs more depth at the tackle position, and someone to play on the right side of the line. I think Bitonio could do quite well in that role, though I obviously lean towards making heavy investments in the O-line.
This sort of pick would be perceived by many to be a 'reach', and it might not strike many people as a terribly flashy pick, but it is one that I suspect should turn out well. I think the odds of Bitonio failing are rather slim, and that he could provide immediate value for the team. After all, I've probably studied at least 2 or 3 minutes of his game film (a grueling 2 or 3 minutes!), so I'm kind of an expert on this subject. The main drawback here is that, of the options I have considered for the team's 1st pick, Bitonio probably has the highest probability of falling to our pick in the 2nd round. I doubt he will fall that far, but it is possible. Still, this is somewhat balanced out by possibly being the safest pick.
The Still Conservative But Less Shocking Approach, Deone Bucannon
Again, this is a pick that would get me laughed at by most people. Personally, I don't think Bucannon should be taken before the 3rd round, because of my feelings about the value of the strong safety position. In the end though, the market determines these things, and I suspect Bucannon is going to go in the late 1st to early 2nd round area (probably the latter). The issue here is that Team Kangaroo should probably address the safety position at some point. Since we are operating on an alternate timeline, Team Kangaroo doesn't have Matt Elam, not that this is terribly upsetting to us.
Among the players who will clearly be playing as safeties, Bucannon strikes me as the safest prospect. I'm not necessarily saying that he will be the best, just that he best conforms to the mold that the computer has for a safety prospect. Will he end up being great? I don't know. All I care about is that he doesn't end up being horrible. After Bucannon is selected, the safety options that hold the most appeal to me, are prospects who are listed as corners, who could be converted into safeties. Since I have no say in what position a prospect will end up playing, this makes the risk of selecting them much higher, while also increasing the value of Bucannon to Team Kangaroo. It's not a situation that I am thrilled with, but I could live with making this pick. While I like Bitonio a bit more than I like Bucannon, I suspect Bucannon might be the more highly drafted player, which puts a bit more pressure on me to take a slight gamble here, and hope that Bitonio, might fall to my 2nd pick.
The Potentially Bat-shit Crazy Approach, Jason Verrett, Cody Latimer, Odell Beckham, et al
This is where things could go off the rails a bit, though it would also probably be greeted with less ridicule, and conform better with most people's thoughts in regard to where players "should be selected". As well as Verrett, Latimer, and Beckham, I would also toss Jordan Matthews, Bradley Roby, Kareem Martin and Allen Robinson into this category. Unfortunately, the players that people would deem to be more appropriate picks for the 17th overall selection all strike me as a bit riskier, and generally have certain issues that make me a bit nervous. At the same time, they have some significant upside potential. I don't necessarily feel that all of these players present the same risks, but the risks still aren't too bad with any of them. They would all probably be seen as less peculiar picks than some of my more conservative preferences, who will probably be taken a bit later.
From my perspective, the players in this group are all intriguing, but the odds of success for any of them make them more suitable as 2nd round selections. Still, I can't deny that I am really drawn to some of them, despite the increased risks that some of them present. Cody Latimer, in particular, has seized an uncomfortable/irrational hold on my heart, despite potentially being one of the riskiest prospects in this group. There are some strong arguments to be made for all of these players, but there are also generally some strong reasons to be somewhat wary of them.
Since the whole point of this exercise is to see what would happen if an imaginary team consistently made the most cautious picks possible, based largely on objective data rather than intuition, taking unnecessary risks would be a bit of a violation of our principles. Still, such a pick could be justified to some degree. Since our real goal is just to outperform Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens, they could end up giving Team Kangaroo the necessary breathing room to gamble a bit. If Ozzie Newsome makes a selection that the computer feels has a low probability of success, it would decrease the pressure on our part to be extremely cautious. The computer would essentially be playing down to the competition in this scenario.
In the end, my goal is pretty straight forward. I think the 2014 draft is a bit more top-heavy than last year's draft. In 2013, I felt the talent projected to go in the first 2 rounds was fairly weak, but that the players available in the later rounds might be more interesting. This year might run a bit in the opposite direction. So, getting out of the first 2 rounds with players I am happy with, might be a bit more important. If I end up making it out of those two rounds with some combination of Joel Bitonio, Deone Bucannon, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby (Hooray for DWIs lowering a player's stock!), Phillip Gaines, Kareem Martin, or perhaps one of the more intriguing receivers, I would probably be reasonably content, though the real fun always comes with the later picks.
If anyone wants to chime in, feel free. You've got one week to persuade me that I either have my head up my ass about some prospect that I am interested in, or that I have underrated/excluded someone that I should be considering. You might even influence my opinion about someone, or you might not. Reilly will still serve as General Manager of Team Kangaroo, and I will serve as his humble assistant, but additional Kangaroo Scouts are always welcome. In the end, the whole point of the game is to discover whether us mere mortals can produce something that looks like a half-way intelligent result. Whether that result comes from an individual steering the ship, or whether it is a group effort, really doesn't matter too much to us. Of course, Reilly will get all of the glory, but he is a benevolent leader.
Whether you choose to participate in this adventure with us, or not, I would highly recommend conducting your own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team you follow. It makes the draft more entertaining to watch, and can really give you an odd sense of the pressure that GMs operate under. I find that making a pick, and watching as nobody selects that player for several rounds, is oddly disturbing to my confidence. Other times you get the timing right, and feel quite clever. It can be surprisingly nerve wracking, for an exercise that has no real consequences. If you end up deciding to play along, feel free to send me an email with your team's results, or post it in the comments. In the end, I'd really enjoy making a post with some of the results that you all might generate.
As we proceed on our drunken vision quest, we must brace ourselves for the perils that lie ahead. The possibility of failure is great. The potential for embarrassment is always on my mind. The only thing we can do is to have faith in the numbers, and meditate on our spirit animal for guidance.
 |
| The Reilly-A-Roo, almost as dangerous as a chupacabra |
1st Round
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Joel Bitonio, OT/G, Nevada *
Jason Verrett, CB, TCU*
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.*
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina*
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
2nd Round
Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana*
Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State*
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St.
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington St.*
Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice*
Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi St.
Rashede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
3rd Round
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College*
Carl Bradford, DE/OLB, Arizona St.*
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno St.
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB/S, Nebraska
Jackson Jeffcoat, DE/OLB, Texas
Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
4th Round
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor*
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern*
Andre Williams, RB, Boston College*
James Gayle, DE, Virginia Tech*
Charles Leno, OT/G, Boise St.
Christian Kirksey, LB, Iowa
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
5th Round
Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State*
Gabe Ikard, C, Oklahoma*
Garrett Scott, OT/OG, Marshall
Matt Patchan, OT, Boston College
Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame
John Urschel, OG/C, Penn State
Travis Carrie, CB/S, Ohio
Bennett Jackson, CB, Notre Dame
6th Round
Carlos Fields, LB,Winston-Salem State*
Morgan Breslin, LB USC
Mike Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley St.
Justin Britt, OT, Missouri
Ryan Groy, G, Wisconsin
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT, McGill
Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
Preston Brown, LB, Louisville
Dontae Johnson, CB/S, NC State
Wesley Johnson, OT, Vanderbilt
7th Round
Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
Beau Allen, DT, Wisconsin
Stephen Houston, RB, Indiana
Brock Coyle, LB, Montana
Terrence Fede, DE, Marist
Brandon Watts, LB/S, Georgia Tech
Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech
If you ask me again in five minutes, I'm sure that the order I've listed these players in will have already changed. The order that the players are listed in doesn't necessarily reflect my opinion of the players, or suggest where I think they 'deserve to be selected'. This is all basically a compromised mash-up of my opinions, mixed with the practical reality that players will be selected in an order that doesn't mesh with my views about certain issues. There are players who will probably go in the 5th round, that I feel are better than some people who will be taken in the 1st round. To some extent, I also need to factor in whether I think a player will even be given a real opportunity to compete for a starting job, as the perception that teams have of certain players can really be the biggest obstacle to success in many cases. It's all just a matter of figuring out, to the best of my ability, just how highly I would need to pick someone, in order to acquire them. The goal is to have as many options in mind as possible, for each round, even if I'm not a huge fan of all of them.
As the draft unfolds, I will undoubtedly be frantically reshuffling the Little Big Board, and quite possibly tossing in extra names to fill in some gaps. If a player isn't included in this list, it doesn't necessarily mean that I think they are a bum (though it might mean that). It could just mean that I don't think there is a strong probability that they will fall to the point where I would be comfortable selecting them. Other players, might not be suitable for the team I am drafting for, the Ravens. In some cases, I might be very interested in a player, but have some uncertainty as to whether a team will play them at the position that I think best suits them. That creates a huge problem, since I have no say in this issue, and it forces me to put a greater emphasis on selecting players that I suspect will do well regardless of what team they wind up on (since I will have no idea what team will end up selecting them).
Since Team Kangaroo's first pick will come with the 17th overall selection (barring any trades that might occur), we'll mainly focus on players who should be available at that point. Currently, there are a couple of likely directions I could see us headed in, and I have laid out a few of these potential scenarios below.
The Ultra-Conservative Approach, Joel Bitonio
Based upon who I normally see falling to the Ravens 1st pick (the 17th overall), I am forced into an awkward position. I just don't feel that I'm going to be terribly thrilled with the popular options that the Ravens will be selecting from at this point. On the other hand, there are some players who I am very interested in, that will probably be available a bit later, though they probably won't fall to the Ravens 2nd pick. This makes the option of trading back quite appealing, though I obviously have no say in what Ozzie Newsome will do.
If I selected OT/OG Joel Bitonio with the 17th overall pick, I'm sure that people would give me a fair bit of grief. The term 'reach' would most likely be thrown at me for such a selection. I suspect a bit of heckling and ridicule would be directed at me, leading to a tear soaked pillow as I sob myself to sleep. Nevertheless, it's an option I could happily live with.
Since we are building off of the alternate timeline that began with last year's draft, some things look a bit different for Team Kangaroo, than they might for the Ravens. I obviously drafted numerous offensive linemen last year, with Terron Armstead being the most highly selected of these players. Seeing as how Armstead currently appears to be the Saints' starting left tackle, and seems to be showing some signs of promising potential, it has a significant effect on our view of things. For one, we might not have been forced into trading for Eugene Monroe (which would have given Team Kangaroo 2 extra selections in this draft, though we'll overlook that), nor would we have had to resign Monroe. Despite all of that, Team Kangaroo still needs more depth at the tackle position, and someone to play on the right side of the line. I think Bitonio could do quite well in that role, though I obviously lean towards making heavy investments in the O-line.
This sort of pick would be perceived by many to be a 'reach', and it might not strike many people as a terribly flashy pick, but it is one that I suspect should turn out well. I think the odds of Bitonio failing are rather slim, and that he could provide immediate value for the team. After all, I've probably studied at least 2 or 3 minutes of his game film (a grueling 2 or 3 minutes!), so I'm kind of an expert on this subject. The main drawback here is that, of the options I have considered for the team's 1st pick, Bitonio probably has the highest probability of falling to our pick in the 2nd round. I doubt he will fall that far, but it is possible. Still, this is somewhat balanced out by possibly being the safest pick.
The Still Conservative But Less Shocking Approach, Deone Bucannon
Again, this is a pick that would get me laughed at by most people. Personally, I don't think Bucannon should be taken before the 3rd round, because of my feelings about the value of the strong safety position. In the end though, the market determines these things, and I suspect Bucannon is going to go in the late 1st to early 2nd round area (probably the latter). The issue here is that Team Kangaroo should probably address the safety position at some point. Since we are operating on an alternate timeline, Team Kangaroo doesn't have Matt Elam, not that this is terribly upsetting to us.
Among the players who will clearly be playing as safeties, Bucannon strikes me as the safest prospect. I'm not necessarily saying that he will be the best, just that he best conforms to the mold that the computer has for a safety prospect. Will he end up being great? I don't know. All I care about is that he doesn't end up being horrible. After Bucannon is selected, the safety options that hold the most appeal to me, are prospects who are listed as corners, who could be converted into safeties. Since I have no say in what position a prospect will end up playing, this makes the risk of selecting them much higher, while also increasing the value of Bucannon to Team Kangaroo. It's not a situation that I am thrilled with, but I could live with making this pick. While I like Bitonio a bit more than I like Bucannon, I suspect Bucannon might be the more highly drafted player, which puts a bit more pressure on me to take a slight gamble here, and hope that Bitonio, might fall to my 2nd pick.
The Potentially Bat-shit Crazy Approach, Jason Verrett, Cody Latimer, Odell Beckham, et al
This is where things could go off the rails a bit, though it would also probably be greeted with less ridicule, and conform better with most people's thoughts in regard to where players "should be selected". As well as Verrett, Latimer, and Beckham, I would also toss Jordan Matthews, Bradley Roby, Kareem Martin and Allen Robinson into this category. Unfortunately, the players that people would deem to be more appropriate picks for the 17th overall selection all strike me as a bit riskier, and generally have certain issues that make me a bit nervous. At the same time, they have some significant upside potential. I don't necessarily feel that all of these players present the same risks, but the risks still aren't too bad with any of them. They would all probably be seen as less peculiar picks than some of my more conservative preferences, who will probably be taken a bit later.
From my perspective, the players in this group are all intriguing, but the odds of success for any of them make them more suitable as 2nd round selections. Still, I can't deny that I am really drawn to some of them, despite the increased risks that some of them present. Cody Latimer, in particular, has seized an uncomfortable/irrational hold on my heart, despite potentially being one of the riskiest prospects in this group. There are some strong arguments to be made for all of these players, but there are also generally some strong reasons to be somewhat wary of them.
Since the whole point of this exercise is to see what would happen if an imaginary team consistently made the most cautious picks possible, based largely on objective data rather than intuition, taking unnecessary risks would be a bit of a violation of our principles. Still, such a pick could be justified to some degree. Since our real goal is just to outperform Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens, they could end up giving Team Kangaroo the necessary breathing room to gamble a bit. If Ozzie Newsome makes a selection that the computer feels has a low probability of success, it would decrease the pressure on our part to be extremely cautious. The computer would essentially be playing down to the competition in this scenario.
In the end, my goal is pretty straight forward. I think the 2014 draft is a bit more top-heavy than last year's draft. In 2013, I felt the talent projected to go in the first 2 rounds was fairly weak, but that the players available in the later rounds might be more interesting. This year might run a bit in the opposite direction. So, getting out of the first 2 rounds with players I am happy with, might be a bit more important. If I end up making it out of those two rounds with some combination of Joel Bitonio, Deone Bucannon, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby (Hooray for DWIs lowering a player's stock!), Phillip Gaines, Kareem Martin, or perhaps one of the more intriguing receivers, I would probably be reasonably content, though the real fun always comes with the later picks.
If anyone wants to chime in, feel free. You've got one week to persuade me that I either have my head up my ass about some prospect that I am interested in, or that I have underrated/excluded someone that I should be considering. You might even influence my opinion about someone, or you might not. Reilly will still serve as General Manager of Team Kangaroo, and I will serve as his humble assistant, but additional Kangaroo Scouts are always welcome. In the end, the whole point of the game is to discover whether us mere mortals can produce something that looks like a half-way intelligent result. Whether that result comes from an individual steering the ship, or whether it is a group effort, really doesn't matter too much to us. Of course, Reilly will get all of the glory, but he is a benevolent leader.
Whether you choose to participate in this adventure with us, or not, I would highly recommend conducting your own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team you follow. It makes the draft more entertaining to watch, and can really give you an odd sense of the pressure that GMs operate under. I find that making a pick, and watching as nobody selects that player for several rounds, is oddly disturbing to my confidence. Other times you get the timing right, and feel quite clever. It can be surprisingly nerve wracking, for an exercise that has no real consequences. If you end up deciding to play along, feel free to send me an email with your team's results, or post it in the comments. In the end, I'd really enjoy making a post with some of the results that you all might generate.
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