In general, examining the different linebacker prospects tends to be one of our favorite position groups to play around with. We dump the data for the players into our computer, do a little sifting, and then sit down to watch some of the games for the players that have emerged through our different filters. So, while we've been running a bit behind schedule this year, we've finally gotten around to looking at this year's prospects, just like we did last year.
One of the things we always enjoy about this group of players is the actual video portion of the examination. Seeing whether the players demonstrate the behavior that their measurable athletic traits and statistical production would suggest, is entertaining to us. There's just something peculiar about linebackers, that always leaves some added room for subjective judgments. Perhaps more than any other position, we sometimes feel as if you can see the decisions that are running through their minds when they play, at least compared to other positions where someone might be more clearly matched up in one-on-one situations that require less thought. Seeing that added intangible spark of aggressiveness and quick decision making, often ends up being a final subjective ingredient in how we feel about a lot of these players. So, the possibility that our judgment is out of whack, is something we have to consider.
To some extent, we wondered if this potential flaw in our reasoning ability might be more of an issue this year. We had a hard time feeling particularly excited about any of this year's linebackers, which made us wonder if we were missing something. Maybe Reilly and I were a bit distracted and hard to please this year, because of issues elsewhere in our lives. Or, maybe this year's crop of linebackers was a bit mediocre. We're really not sure. Either way, we just didn't seem to find ourselves having as much fun with the linebackers this year.
Since the athletic traits of players in this category are measured
against all defensive prospects who are under 275#, this skews their
results when it comes to the Kangaroo Score,
because they don't have the same mass as some of the larger outside
pass rushers in this weight class. Since the goal is to see how many
standard deviations away from an average result that a player is, we
have to make some mental adjustments here. For these (generally)
lighter prospects, a Kangaroo Score of -0.800, would be the
approximate point at which we would find the 'average' player in this
group. Among these lighter prospects, you typically start to see Pro
Bowl and All Pro players reaching a score of -0.400, or better.
Just like the Kangaroo Score, the Agility Score (which comes from the
short shuttle and 3-cone drill), will also be given in the form of how
many standard deviations away from the average result that a player
is. While the Kangaroo Scores for these players tend to suffer by
comparison to heavier players, these lighter prospects generally make up
for this by having an advantage when it comes to how nimble they are.
So, we prefer to see Agility Scores that are at least 1.000 standard deviation above average. Normally, I would expect a player with a higher Kangaroo Score to
be more of a hitter, and more productive on blitzes, while a player
with a high Agility Score will probably be better in coverage. Still,
nothing is set in stone, and individuals do vary in how they perform.
This
list will continue to be modified and updated, as new data and
prospects come to my attention. The list won't include every player.
but instead, just the ones that I find interesting for one reason or
another. Last Updated: N/A
Myles Jack OLB, UCLA
40 Time: ? Kangaroo Score: 0.679 Agility Score: ?
There are some serious limitations as to what we can say about Jack, because our data on him is very limited. We can comfortably say that he has significantly better lower body power and explosiveness than you typically see in an outside linebacker, but we have nothing to weigh his agility or speed. While most people seem to feel that his coverage ability is fairly exceptional, and this might minimize concerns over his missing agility results, this would just be speculation on our part. To some extent, we thought the data pointed to Jack being most effective in coverage when his team's pass rush was operating effectively. This isn't intended to be an attack on Jack, but instead is something that can be fairly typical for most linebackers. While Jack might indeed be above average in coverage, we just thought that he sometimes might have benefited from his surrounding talent, at least a bit more than is sometimes acknowledged. We also tend to find the idea of drafting a pure coverage linebacker in the top 5 picks to be a peculiar proposition. When it came to his production as a run defender, his results seemed much closer to average, though he might have been improving in this area prior to his injury. While his lower body power and explosiveness (his non-weight adjusted result would be about 1.493 standard deviations above average), would suggest that he could be effective as a pass rusher, his statistical history shows little production in this area, and somewhat humdrum production behind the line of scrimmage. Some of this is might be due to how his team utilized him, and the lack of opportunities he had to rush the QB, but it is still difficult to confirm that he is exceptional in this area. Then we have the issue of his knee injury. Some people seem to think this won't be a lingering issue. Others appear to be much more concerned about how he will recover from it. While we have no interest in raining on the Myles Jack parade, and can understand how some people might be fascinated by him, the combination of a potentially limited skill set, along with injury concerns, would make us very nervous about selecting him as highly as he is expected to be taken. We'd let someone else make that pick.
Darron Lee OLB, Ohio State
40 Time: 4.47 Kangaroo Score: 0.018 Agility Score: 0.649
Darron Lee is a somewhat frustrating prospect. The computer loves his physical potential, as his results suggest that he has excellent speed, lower body power and explosiveness, as well as somewhat respectable agility. The problem is that his statistical production seemed to be a tad bit below average for someone at his position, outside of his high number of tackles for a loss. It's also difficult to look at his results without considering the enormous benefit he might have received by being a part of a rather loaded Ohio State roster. In the handful of games we saw him play, he also didn't manage to make much of an impression on us. It's not that we felt he was bad. He just didn't strike us as being clearly exceptional. While I suppose we might give him some consideration if he fell to the 2nd round, simply because of his physical potential, we wouldn't be willing to select him in the 1st, where people seem to project that he will be taken.
Reggie Ragland ILB, Alabama
40 Time: 4.72 Kangaroo Score: -0.739 Agility Score: 0.400
What are you feelings about C.J. Mosley? Seriously, I need to know this before we proceed much farther. You see, Reilly and I sort of placed our bets on Mosley becoming a fairly mediocre linebacker, a couple of years ago. It seems quite likely that many people would say that we were wrong about this, though we're still not sure about that. Regardless, we suspected that Mosley would get plenty of opportunities, be reasonably productive, and receive some acclaim, though we felt this would mainly be due to his 1st round status, and the confirmation biases associated with that honor. We're still sort of leaning in that direction, as Mosley stills strikes us as a fairly average middle linebacker, though perhaps a tad better than we initially expected. With Ragland, we have another Alabama middle linebacker, who we feel even less confident about. Athletically, he is a slightly worse version of the rather average C.J. Mosley. Ragland's statistical production, is almost indistinguishable from that of Mosley, and we feel a tad below average. When we watched Ragland play, we also saw nothing that got us the least bit excited. We honestly don't see any reason why he should be selected before the 4th or 5th round. People will probably disagree with us about this. Still, we think there are a great number of reasons to worry about whether Ragland can truly become and exceptional linebacker, which is really what you should expect if you are going to select him in the 1st round. So, obviously, based on our past misadventures in betting against highly touted players from Alabama, we recommend selecting him in the 1st round, sending him to a few Pro Bowls, and awaiting his Hall of Fame induction ceremony.
Leonard Floyd OLB, Georgia
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: 0.829 Agility Score: 0.201
When we talked about this year's group of outside pass rushers, we had rather mixed feelings about Floyd. Athletically, he struck us as a very interesting prospect. He just didn't have the production to back that up. There just seemed to be something missing when he attempted to go after the quarterback We did suggest that he might make a more interesting 3-4 ILB or some sort 4-3 LB, as his athleticism also translated well to that position. Even here, we still might feel a tad cautious about Floyd. While he's clearly very capable physically, it's hard to say that he ever demonstrated dominance in any particular area. He strikes us as someone who could be an interesting 3rd round pick, because of his physical potential, though everyone seems to expect that he will be taken well before that. I'm not really sure what we can say about that. While he's fairly interesting, it feels like someone is going to take more of a gamble than we think is wise.
Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise St.
40 Time: 4.70 Kangaroo Score: -0.567 Agility Score: 1.166 Avg TFL: 15
Like
Leonard Floyd, we already discussed Correa a little bit, when we
discussed this year's group of outside pass rushers. Unfortunately, we
just didn't think that Correa had the sort of lower body power or
explosiveness, to be an ideal fit in that role. As a linebacker who
plays further off of the line of scrimmage, on the other hand, we think
he has some fairly ideal traits. Compared to this group of players, his
lower body power is fairly respectable. He also appears to have at
least a respectable level of speed and agility for this sort of role.
While we wouldn't say that his production in college was terribly
impressive, outside of the number of tackles for a loss that he
produced, we think some of this could be attributed to these issues of
how he was utilized. When he was allowed to operate in space, which we
think suits his athletic skills, he appeared to be a much better
player. When he was on the line of scrimmage, we thought his lack of power made him look a bit underwhelming. While projecting him to a somewhat different position is a bit
tricky, we think he could arguably end up being worth a 2nd round pick,
if the team that selects him gives him the space to operate. If, on the
other hand, people insist on putting him up on the line of scrimmage,
we suspect he might get buried a bit more than you might like to see.
Su'a Cravens OLB, Southern California
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: -2.151 Agility Score: 0.885
Cravens
is sort of a weird prospect. While his speed and agility results are
fairly intriguing, we're really concerned about his Kangaroo Score. His
results there would suggest that he has extremely poor lower body power
and explosiveness. Our main concern here, is that he could simply get
run over by more powerful opponents. Since he only weighs 220 pounds,
we considered the possibility that teams might be planning to transition
him to the strong safety position, where his athletic traits might be a
better match. Unfortunately, when we compared him to players at that position, his speed, relative to
strong safeties, becomes much less impressive, and his agility ceases to be
above average as well. When compared to strong safeties, his lower body
power is also merely average and uninspiring. So, I guess we are going to try to keep him
as a linebacker, where he at least possesses some physical advantages.
While Cravens generally had respectable statistical production in
college, and we felt he was an entertaining player to watch, we just
aren't certain as to how a team should best use him. Sure, he could be
an interesting player to put on the field in obvious passing situations,
but he'd probably get killed if he was lined up in a 3-4 base defense.
Even in a 4-3, where he might have a better chance of surviving, we
suspect he would probably require a somewhat above average defensive
line. He's an interesting player, but as people start to push him up
towards the top of the 2nd round, or even into the 1st, the potentially
narrow window of what defense he should fit in, makes the value of such a
high selection seem a bit questionable.
Joshua Perry OLB, Ohio State
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: 0.315 Agility Score: -0.218
While we've been fairly busy making fun of all the prospects from Ohio State, we really don't have many serious complaints about Perry. Athletically, he appears to have acceptable speed, as well as above average lower body power and explosiveness. The only minor issue might be his somewhat mediocre agility. Generally speaking, we think players like this fit better as inside linebackers in a 3-4. When it came to Perry's production in college, everything checked out as solidly average, if not exceptional. All of this sort of lines up with what we saw when we watched Perry play. We might not think that he is a terribly rare prospect, but he seems to be fairly solid. We think picking him up somewhere around the 3rd round could be a reasonable decision.
Kentrell Brothers ILB, Missouri
40 Time: 4.89 Kangaroo Score: -1.572 Agility Score: 1.149
When we express our pessimism about Brothers' future, based on his numbers, the obvious response would maybe be to point to someone like Vontaze Burfict. That's fair. We admittedly would not have placed very good odds on Burfict surviving in the NFL, and it appears that we were probably wrong about him. Still, we wouldn't feel comfortable making all of our decisions on peculiar examples such as that. While Brothers does appear to have somewhat respectable agility, his other results give us some concerns. His Kangaroo Score point to the likelihood that he has significantly below average lower body power and explosiveness, and his 40 time creates some worry about his effective range. While we wouldn't say that we were struck by any amazing deficiencies when we watched him play, we still have to lean towards the idea that he is probably most effective within a somewhat limited radius of where the ball is being snapped. While his statistical production seems to have been a good bit above average, we had some concerns in this area as well. We generally don't like to make a big fuss about solo tackles versus assisted tackles, but in Brothers' case his results moved a tad outside of our comfort zone. In 2015, his biggest statistical season, 51.9% of his tackles were assists, which is a fair bit higher than what we like to see, and can perhaps suggest that some of his overall results might have been inflated. His solo to assist ratio prior to 2015 was a bit more respectable, but his overall results were also much more pedestrian. We also have felt, in recent years, a tad wary of defensive players from Missouri. The school has had a strange ability to produce players with below average athletic traits, with strangely outrageous statistical production. Generally, this has applied more to their pass rushers rather than their linebackers, but it is still a thought that is rattling around in our heads. Right now, people seem to expect that Brothers will be selected somewhere around the 2nd round, but that is well outside of our comfort zone. Maybe Brothers will end up exceeding our expectations, but he just isn't someone we feel we can gamble on with such a high selection.
Nick Vigil, ILB, Utah State
40 Time: 4.71 Kangaroo Score: -1.146 Agility Score: 1.954
When it comes to his athletic ability, Vigil reminds us of a poor man's Ben Heeney. Because of the way that his results tilt so strongly towards agility, with less evidence of lower body power and explosiveness, we would be somewhat afraid to see him playing inside in a 3-4 defense. We suspect he would do much better in a 4-3, with a fairly stout defensive line to protect him from getting run over. One of the peculiar things about Vigil, is that we would normally expect his excellent agility results to translate into superior ability in coverage, but it didn't seem to be clear that this was the case. While some of his tackle numbers appear to be a bit inflated with more "assists" than we typically prefer, it's hard to argue with the idea that his overall production in the last two years has been fairly impressive. Overall, we suppose it wouldn't be crazy to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on Vigil.
Jatavis Brown, OLB, Akron
40 Time: 4.44 Kangaroo Score: -0.647 Agility Score: 0.210
Despite hearing some quiet rumblings about Brown, we were a bit slow to investigate him. Athletically, he just didn't appear to be particularly interesting, outside of his exceptional 40 time. His agility results were fairly mediocre. His Kangaroo Score suggested he had a fairly common sort of lower body power, though his unweighted results said his explosiveness was a more impressive 1.102 standard deviations above average. It also doesn't help that he is a whisker under 5'11", and just 227 pounds. All things considered, he didn't appear to be a particularly shocking athlete. The interesting thing about Brown was his statistical production. For an OLB, his numbers were well above what we normally expect to see at that position, and he managed to steadily produce these results for the past three seasons. It would be tempting to say that his numbers were inflated because he played at a lower level of competition, but even when we made deductions (similar to what we sometimes do with pass rushers), his results were still significantly above average. Based on the few games of his that we were able to see, he also struck us as one of the more entertaining players to watch. While he is probably limited to playing in a 3-4, because of his size, and lower body power, it wouldn't shock us if he turned out to be one of the better linebackers in this class. CBS currently seems to project that he will be a 4th round pick, which sounds fairly reasonable to us.
Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin
40 Time: 4.76 Kangaroo Score: -0.383 Agility Score: 0.391
Reilly and I can't figure out Schobert at all. Part of that is due to the somewhat peculiar way in which Wisconsin used him, as he would bounce around as an edge rusher, and then be lined up as a 4-3 OLB. While he really doesn't fit the typical mold of an edge rusher, the odd thing is that he seems to have been surprisingly effective in that role. Still, we have to suspect that those days are over for him, and he will most likely become a more conventional linebacker. Athletically, he is sort of a mixed bag. His speed and agility seem to be fairly mediocre. On the other hand, his lower body power and explosiveness aren't so bad, and we could even stretch his Kangaroo Score to a more impressive 0.040, if we only considered the results from his vertical jump. In the end though, it's his statistical production which actually makes him somewhat interesting, more so than his athleticism. Over the past two years, Schobert put up somewhat above average results, and managed to be a surprisingly disruptive player. Of course, the way that Wisconsin moved him around makes a lot of this production difficult to translate to what he will probably do in the NFL, in a more conventional role. We sort of doubt that he could do particularly well in coverage, because of some of his athletic traits. He also might struggle to keep up with faster running backs along the sideline. Still, he struck us as a fairly interesting, and possibly underrated player. We suspect his best fit might be as an ILB in a 3-4 defense, who can also be sent up the middle occasionally to get the QB. He's an odd duck.
Blake Martinez ILB, Stanford
40 Time: 4.71 Kangaroo Score: -0.788 Agility Score: 0.919
We may not be thrilled with Martinez, but since people are projecting that he might be selected somewhere around the 5th round, he at least seems to present a reasonably honest value. While his timed speed, lower body power and explosiveness all appear to just be fairly average, that is at least better than being terrible. His agility results are somewhat above average for a player of his size, but not necessarily shocking. His statistical production in college was generally pretty respectable, even if he seems to have made fewer of the big impact plays than we might hope to see. In the little we have seen of him, he appeared to be the sort of guy his results might suggest. He seemed to do everything you might expect a linebacker to do, in a somewhat respectable manner, without doing anything that jumped out as being incredibly unusual or impressive. He just strikes us as a serviceable sort of guy. For where he is expected to be taken, that seems like a possibly acceptable deal.
Nick Kwiatkoski OLB, West Virginia
40 Time: 4.71 Kangaroo Score: -0.511 Agility Score: 0.517
We could fiddle around with Kwiatkoski's numbers a bit, and tell a more interesting story, but that's probably unnecessary. Let's just consider the worst case scenario, where Kwiatkoski possibly measures up as rather average when it comes to his speed, lower body power, explosiveness and agility. There are some simple arguments to suggest he might be somewhat better than average athletically, but let's roll with this. Okay, being an average athlete can still be perfectly acceptable. When we look at his statistical production, on the other hand, Kwiatkoski appears to have consistently been more productive than your average linebacker, regardless of where he lined up. Beyond just reaching the ball carrier, he even seems to have consistently made a somewhat above average number of higher impact plays, whether it was tackles for a loss, batted passes, or interceptions. We'd also give him some credit for the possibility that West Virginia's pass rush has probably been a bit mediocre, which doesn't really help a linebacker look particularly good in coverage. In the little we have seen of Kwiatkoski (I'm getting tired of typing that name), we wouldn't say that he was the most electrifying linebacker we have ever seen, but he generally appeared to be pretty competent. What is all of this worth? I don't know, maybe a 4th or 5th round pick?
Brandon Chubb, ILB, Wake Forest
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: -0.672 Agility Score: 1.114
Maybe it is partially due to the expected low cost of acquiring Chubb, and maybe it is because we find his last name somewhat amusing, but we actually like Chubb a fair bit. He appears to have respectable lower body power and explosiveness. His timed speed falls in a decent range as well. His agility results also seem to be fairly good. Overall, he looks like a pretty well rounded athlete, even if he isn't a shocking freak of nature. We wouldn't say that his statistical production in college was amazing, but for the last two years fell into a solidly average range for someone at his position. In the little we have seen of him, he seemed to look the part, and made a decent impression on us. Considering that he is only expected to be something like a 7th round pick, he seems like a decent bargain.
Will Ratelle ILB, North Dakota
40 Time: 4.57 Kangaroo Score: 0.180 Agility Score: 0.647
At 5'9" tall, and 251 pounds, Ratelle is clearly a peculiar prospect. While his agility results are perhaps a tad lower than our ideal target, his other results are a bit more interesting. His Kangaroo Score would suggest that he has significantly above average lower body power, though his unweighted results suggest merely average explosiveness. He also seems to be surprisingly fast, despite being such a weird little tank of a man. While his level of competition was hardly top notch, we'd still say that his statistical production fell in the average to above average range during the past two years. From the little we have seen, he mainly appeared to be a dispenser of concussions, who thumped people in the running game. He's generally expected to go undrafted, but he strikes us as a somewhat interesting player, who could be amusing to watch as an ILB in a 3-4 defense. The cost of acquiring him will probably be close to nothing, and there appears to be at least some potential hidden in him.
Micah Awe, ILB, Texas Tech
40 Time: 4.67 Kangaroo Score: 0.152 Agility Score: 0.629
There's really not much that we can say about Awe, since we haven't been able to find much information on him. Athletically, he just strikes us as a fairly interesting player. His Kangaroo Score might not seem terribly impressive, but for an inside linebacker this is actually a very good result, and suggests significantly above average lower body power. When weight isn't factored into the equation, his lower body explosiveness is about 1.717 standard deviations above average, which is exceptional. When it comes to his agility and straight line speed, his numbers are a bit more pedestrian, but nothing we would fret about too much. His statistical production in college merely fell into the average range, though some of this is hard to judge since he was really only a starter for his final season. It's hard for us to know how interested to be in Awe, without more data, but since he is generally only viewed as someone who will be an UDFA, there's no reason for us to get too crazy. If a team had a chance to bring him into their training camp, maybe they will find a pleasant surprise. Who knows?
Showing posts with label linebacker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label linebacker. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Monday, March 30, 2015
Kangaroo Court: The 2015 Linebackers
A long time ago, in a galaxy far far away, I worked at a liquor store. It was a rather wonderful experience, because it made my own my youthful adventures with amateur alcoholism seem rather pathetic and harmless, at least in comparison to the more dedicated lushes I would encounter there. If the livers of those dedicated sots were still functional, I clearly had little reason to worry. Being able to make flattering comparisons between myself and more damaged individuals is sort of how I get by in this world.
One of the interesting things about serious drunkards, was in the strange peculiarities of their drinking habits. You'd think that a large 1.75 liter bottle of liquor would be the most efficient way to get the job done when you were consuming massive quantities on a daily basis, but this was rarely the case. In fact, the "miniature" bottles, as they are called, are the real sign that you might have a problem (or a solution, depending on your point of view). It's quite possible that you've never bought one of these tiny bottles, but that's just because you haven't fully committed yourself to a proper and sustained binge. It's quite likely that you lack the discipline and dedication to pursue a mission of self-destruction, and need to step up your game.
Regardless, the beauty of the "miniature" is that it fits pretty much anywhere. It's the derringer of the debauchee. You can toss a few into your pocket. They can be inconspicuously hidden in desk drawers. Your average glove compartment can hold quite a nice arsenal of them as well. They are made for the drunk on the go. They fuel the man who has things he has to get done, even if he might not remember doing them later.
Now, let me put this into perspective, just a little bit. I also made daily alcohol deliveries to some of the residents of nearby nursing homes. One older and somewhat decrepit gentleman, who so far as I could tell never left his reclining chair, would consume a half-gallon of the cheapest vodka that we were legally allowed to sell, every single day. Over the course of a week, that works out to about 3.5 gallons of liver candy. Some people might find that a bit disturbing. Others might find that to be pretty damned impressive. All I can say is that after a while, you came to admire this sort of drinker. We really should have built a shrine to this man. He was like an Olympian, and his disregard for his own well-being was both glorious and absurd. There he is, sitting in his nursing home. His children probably haven't visited him in months. The clock is winding down, and he figures "Screw it. I'm getting drunk, and I'm going to stay drunk". I can respect that...umm...sort of.
When you dealt with Miniature Man, you got a very different vibe. You knew he was sneaking something on the side. Somewhere, there must be a wife snooping through his drawers, or a boss who was subtly sniffing his breath. Miniature Man was still trying to appear functional, even if he was clearly somewhat haggard. He was trying to keep a secret, even if the burst blood vessels in his nose kept squealing on him. He just wasn't quite ready to baptize himself in booze, and fully dedicate himself to the cause. It was a tad depressing, selling those tiny bottles to him, and it felt like you were watching somebody try to commit suicide by repeatedly shooting themselves with a BB gun, when you were perfectly willing to hand them a shotgun.
So, what does any of this have to do with linebackers? Err....hmmm....gimme a second. I'm sure I can spin some nonsensical connection here.
I suppose, much like we discussed with last year's list of linebackers, that we are just expressing our preference for football players who approach the game with a lack of restraint, or concern for their own well-being. I suspect that you kind of have to throw common sense out the window to truly excel as a linebacker, because anyone with an instinct for self-preservation would probably choose another profession. Still, there are quite a few players who seem to tiptoe around the field, and that greatly diminishes the benefits of the "bread and circuses" distractions that the Lizard People are trying to provide for us. Timid play diverts our attention from the spectacle before us, and makes us start to contemplate things like "Is the fluoridation of our tap water really an attempt to drug us, and control our minds?" These are things we really shouldn't be thinking about, if we know what is good for us, and watching players recklessly assault one another helps to keep our mind at peace.
Sleep....sleeeeeeeeeep........sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeep......You want to buy a Ford F-150.....Coors Light is delicious and refreshing......sleeeeeeeep.......... Vote yes for funding a new $1.5 billion stadium in Los Angeles........sleeeep..........
Since the athletic traits of players in this category are measured against all defensive prospects who are under 275#, this skews their results when it comes to the Kangaroo Score, because they don't have the same mass as some of the larger outside pass rushers in this weight class. Since the goal is to see how many standard deviations away from an average result that a player is, we have to make some mental adjustments here. For these (generally) lighter prospects, a Kangaroo Score of -0.800, would be the approximate point at which we would find the 'average' player in this group. Among these lighter prospects, you typically start to see Pro Bowl and All Pro players reaching a score of -0.400, or better. Just like the Kangaroo Score, the Agility Score (which comes from the short shuttle and 3-cone drill), will also be given in the form of how many standard deviations away from the average result that a player is. While the Kangaroo Scores for these players tend to suffer by comparison to heavier players, these lighter prospects generally make up for this by having an advantage when it comes to how nimble they are. So, we prefer to see Agility Scores that are at least 1.000 standard deviation above average. Normally, I would expect a player with a higher Kangaroo Score to be a stronger hitter, and more productive on blitzes, while a player with a high Agility Score will probably be better in coverage. Still, nothing is set in stone, and individuals do vary in how they perform.
This list will continue to be modified and updated, as new data and prospects come to my attention. The list won't include every player. but instead, just the ones that I find interesting for one reason or another. Last Updated: 4/26/2015
Eric Kendricks ILB, UCLA
40 Time: 4.61 Kangaroo Score: -0.136 Agility Score: 0.777
As far as Kendricks's athletic ability is concerned, things seem to check out rather nicely. He has perfectly acceptable speed. His Kangaroo Score is significantly above average for a player in this weight class. His Agility Score might be a bit lower than we would like, but that seems like the product of an irregularity with the results from his 3-cone drill. Fortunately, this irregularity favors his short shuttle score, which is 1.236 standard deviations above average, and something we highly value in linebackers. When it comes to his statistical production, he appears to have been a fairly dominant and consistent force over the course of several years, which we love to see. In the handful of games we watched, he performed just as well as we would have hoped, based on his data. He seemed rather versatile, and appeared to do well against the run and in coverage. We really see no reason to object to him. Among the players generally projected to be taken near the end of the 1st round, we think he is probably one of the better/safer options, and someone we could have some real interest in. An added bonus is that he was born on February 29th, so his skills should erode at a quarter of the normal rate for an NFL player.
Shaq Thompson OLB/S, Washington
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -1.270 Agility Score: 1.232
He seems to be everyone's favorite 'jack of all trades, master of none' candidate. As a linebacker prospect, I have my doubts about whether he has the size or power to avoid getting physically abused. Honestly, we'd probably rule him out as a linebacker, though our opinion of him as a safety is quite a bit more positive. That requires comparing his traits to a very different set of athletes, which results in very different scores..
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -0.130 Agility Score: 1.182
&
Eli Harold OLB, Virginia
40 Time: 4.53 Kangaroo Score: 0.137 Agility Score: 0.856
It's hard to say how Gregory or Harold would do as a LB in a 4-3 or as an ILB in a 3-4, but we just wanted to throw that option out there. We weren't terribly impressed by either one of them as 3-4 OLB or DE prospects, but their measurable traits suggest that this sort of position switch might be beneficial. In fact, they would be comparable to some fairly impressive NFL players at this position. Unfortunately, this requires quite a bit of wild speculation, since what they did in college doesn't really give us a great glimpse of how they would do in this very different sort of role. It's probably not something I would want to gamble on with a high pick, but if they end up struggling early on in their careers (assuming that they become 3-4 OLBs), a position switch could be interesting. This possibility sort of makes us think about the similar situation that the Dolphins are in, as they are now contemplating a similar switch with Dion Jordan, whom we also disliked as a pass rushing prospect.
Bernardrick McKinney OLB, Mississippi St.
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: 0.730 Agility Score: 0.282
I have very mixed feelings about McKinney. On the one hand, his Kangaroo Score suggests significantly above average lower body power and explosiveness. For a player at his position, I would expect that to translate to being fairly stout against the run, and possibly making him a decent blitzer. On the other hand, his Agility Score might suggest that he is a bit stiff, and could struggle in coverage. It's like reading the future in chicken bones. In the handful of games that I was able to watch, these expectations seemed to be rather accurate, though I also got the impression that he was just a fairly average tackler. Now, if somebody wanted to use him as a thumping inside linebacker in a 3-4, who you might pull off the field in obvious passing situations, I guess I could see him doing a decent job in that role. If he is going to be selected in the 2nd round, as many seem to suggest, I just think the value of a player like this might be a bit debatable for that sort of investment.
Stephone Anthony ILB, Clemson
40 Time: 4.56 Kangaroo Score: 0.162 Agility Score: 1.216
It's hard to criticize Anthony's athletic ability. He's pretty much an ideal physical specimen. As far as his actual production goes, he's a bit more peculiar. Compared to most MLBs, he had a rather high number of eye catching plays (TFLs, FFs, sacks, etc), but a surprisingly low tackle count. The role that his Clemson teammates had in helping to inflate some of his stats is hard to judge, though it's also impossible to discount. The defense did appear to be rather talented as a whole. When we watched him play, we actually thought he looked rather good, though we sometimes questioned the decisions he made. Compared to Eric Kendricks, Anthony seems like a potentially higher reward type of player, but also a potentially higher risk. If he continues to be ranked as a 2nd round pick, we'd probably view that as an acceptable price for someone like him.
Hau'oli Kikaha OLB, Washington
40 Time: 4.93 Kangaroo Score: -0.462 Agility Score: 0.101
This was a player who we were very curious to learn about, but after his pro day we've lost a lot of interest. He doesn't seem to quite fit the ideal mold for an outside pass rusher, but he also doesn't seem to be fast enough, or agile enough, to be exciting as a more conventional linebacker. Since people seem to be projecting that he will be a selection in the 2nd or 3rd round, that would be significantly more costly than what we would consider to be reasonable.
Paul Dawson ILB, TCU
40 Time: 4.75 Kangaroo Score: -1.890* Agility Score: 0.540*
We're not fans of the "He's a football player, not a track star" argument. Why not say,"I'm not an athlete, but I play one in football games." In an attempt to be generous, we're listing Dawson's results based on his pro day. While people may point to a player like Vontaze Burfict, as an example of someone who tested poorly but seems to have done well in the NFL, we view that as a rather large exception to the rules. Also, similar to Burfict, some people seem to be expressing concerns with Dawson's character. At least when the Bengal's picked up Burfict as an UDFA, the balance of risk versus reward was strongly tilted in their favor. They had nothing to lose. We have to admit that we won't be watching any of Dawson's games, even though we do respect his statistical production, because it would just be a waste of our time. Even if we thought he looked like a good player, this just isn't the sort of gamble we are looking to pursue.
Kwon Alexander OLB, LSU
40 Time: 4.55 Kangaroo Score: -0.792 Agility Score: 0.610
Well, if we can trust Rod Tidwell, then "it's all about the kwon". So he has that going for him. Honestly, we have minimal interest in Alexander as a linebacker prospect. His athletic ability is just on the fringe of what we would consider. His statistical production is passable, but not very interesting. Seeing as he frequently seems to be listed as a 3rd round prospect, there is very little that would make us want to pay that price. On the other hand, his physical traits and smaller size (about 6'0.5" and 227 pounds), do make him a fairly respectable fit for the strong safety position. Overall, he didn't make much of a positive impression on us as a linebacker.
Denzel Perryman ILB, Miami
40 Time: 4.78 Kangaroo Score: -1.319 Agility Score: ?
We're still waiting for data from Perryman's pro day, so we haven't completely made up our minds about him Nonetheless, we already have some concerns about his somewhat mediocre speed, and below average lower body power. It's causing us to lean strongly towards the idea that Perryman should only go to a 4-3 team, with a rather stout defensive line to protect him. While we liked his statistical production, and thought he generally looked fairly respectable in the games we watched, we currently would have a hard time accepting the 2nd round grade that many people seem to have given to him.
Ben Heeney ILB, Kansas
40 Time: 4.59 Kangaroo Score: -0.975 Agility Score: 2.050
If you put him in a colander, he would probably come running out the other end. At least that is the sort of fluidity that the computer feels Heeney has based on his Agility Score. While we like his athletic ability, we still would have some concerns about his fairly mediocre Kangaroo Score. This potential lack of power might require that he play behind a fairly solid defensive line. Despite that concern, we thought he was one of the more enjoyable linebacker prospects that we have watched so far. In many ways, both in terms of athletic ability on the field play, he reminded us of Paul Worrilow, and no, it's not just because they suffer from the same terrible birth defect. While both players have exceptional agility, that we would normally associate with coverage linebackers, this doesn't seem to be the real area of strength for either player. Instead, they both seem to be roving tackling machines, who do better against the run. We would be rather interested in acquiring Heeney for Team Kangaroo if he is still be available in the 3rd or 4th round.
Jordan Hicks OLB, Texas
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: 0.061 Agility Score: 1.442
At least on paper, this is a prospect I would normally get excited about. Hicks has fairly ideal athletic traits for a linebacker. His statistical production in college, at least in his senior year, also looks rather impressive. Unfortunately, when we watched him play, the only description that popped into my head was 'bozo'. That seems to happen a lot with players from Texas. We also have to consider the fact that Hicks has missed a rather significant amount of playing time due to injuries. In 2012, he missed time with a hip injury. In 2013, it was his achilles tendon. Somebody clearly doesn't know how to "rub some dirt on it". When I look around, I seem to see him projected as a mid round pick. I guess that there are worse prospects, but the 5th or 6th round is about as high as I could see taking him, and even then I wouldn't be thrilled with doing so.
Mike Hull OLB, Penn State
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: -1.636 Agility Score: 1.038
Well, the numbers would suggest that Hull is a reasonably nimble linebacker, with a possibly serious shortage of power. As far as I can tell, based on watching him play, he seems to fit that description. I wouldn't say that he looked bad, because he definitely had his positive moments, but I do think this guy is probably better suited to playing in a 4-3, or at least going to a team with a serious defensive line to protect him. Even then I suspect I wouldn't want to see him become a starter, though he could be okay for depth. One other drawback is that he will already be turning 24 in May, and has really only had one college season with significant production. I probably wouldn't pursue him, but I could understand why someone might take him somewhere late in the draft.
Bryce Hager ILB, Baylor
40 Time: 4.6 Kangaroo Score: -0.802 Agility Score: 0.148
I'm starting to wonder if the defensive players at Baylor have their statistical production inflated, in a similar manner to what we normally see with their offensive players. Despite a fairly impressive stat sheet, I don't really see much here that would make me interested in pursuing Hager. There are probably worse prospects than Hager, but I just don't get the sense that he possesses much upside.
Jake Ryan OLB, Michigan
40 Time: 4.65 Kangaroo Score: -0.493 Agility Score: 0.668
Oh, I don't know. Ryan seems like a fairly respectable and serviceable athlete. I could even make an argument for boosting his Agility Score a tad, based on some irregularities in his results. I sometimes questioned his decision making and range, but as a straight ahead hitter, and occasional blitzer, he seemed fairly good. In what I suspect is a relatively mediocre draft class, I could see him as one of the more interesting late round linebackers, though I probably wouldn't bet on stardom. People seem to be projecting that he will get selected somewhere around the 5th round, and that sounds about right to me.
Damien Wilson ILB, Minnesota
40 Time: 4.77 Kangaroo Score: 0.091 Agility Score: 0.476
In Damien Wilson's case, I have to admit that we are missing a fair amount of data that we would like to have. We also weren't able to watch him play very much, so we sort of have to base our hunches off of his numbers. Athletically, he should be a fairly reasonable prospect. His speed is a bit pedestrian, but acceptable. He should have good lower body power and explosiveness. As far as his agility is concerned, he wasn't amazing, though his short shuttle results were very promising. He also appears to have been fairly productive in his final college season. The main reason to be interested in Wilson is that he generally isn't projected to be drafted at all. So, a team could probably bring him in as an UDFA. If so, he has enough potential to be interesting, but a team wouldn't be taking any real risks. That's not a bad situation to be in.
One of the interesting things about serious drunkards, was in the strange peculiarities of their drinking habits. You'd think that a large 1.75 liter bottle of liquor would be the most efficient way to get the job done when you were consuming massive quantities on a daily basis, but this was rarely the case. In fact, the "miniature" bottles, as they are called, are the real sign that you might have a problem (or a solution, depending on your point of view). It's quite possible that you've never bought one of these tiny bottles, but that's just because you haven't fully committed yourself to a proper and sustained binge. It's quite likely that you lack the discipline and dedication to pursue a mission of self-destruction, and need to step up your game.
Regardless, the beauty of the "miniature" is that it fits pretty much anywhere. It's the derringer of the debauchee. You can toss a few into your pocket. They can be inconspicuously hidden in desk drawers. Your average glove compartment can hold quite a nice arsenal of them as well. They are made for the drunk on the go. They fuel the man who has things he has to get done, even if he might not remember doing them later.
Now, let me put this into perspective, just a little bit. I also made daily alcohol deliveries to some of the residents of nearby nursing homes. One older and somewhat decrepit gentleman, who so far as I could tell never left his reclining chair, would consume a half-gallon of the cheapest vodka that we were legally allowed to sell, every single day. Over the course of a week, that works out to about 3.5 gallons of liver candy. Some people might find that a bit disturbing. Others might find that to be pretty damned impressive. All I can say is that after a while, you came to admire this sort of drinker. We really should have built a shrine to this man. He was like an Olympian, and his disregard for his own well-being was both glorious and absurd. There he is, sitting in his nursing home. His children probably haven't visited him in months. The clock is winding down, and he figures "Screw it. I'm getting drunk, and I'm going to stay drunk". I can respect that...umm...sort of.
When you dealt with Miniature Man, you got a very different vibe. You knew he was sneaking something on the side. Somewhere, there must be a wife snooping through his drawers, or a boss who was subtly sniffing his breath. Miniature Man was still trying to appear functional, even if he was clearly somewhat haggard. He was trying to keep a secret, even if the burst blood vessels in his nose kept squealing on him. He just wasn't quite ready to baptize himself in booze, and fully dedicate himself to the cause. It was a tad depressing, selling those tiny bottles to him, and it felt like you were watching somebody try to commit suicide by repeatedly shooting themselves with a BB gun, when you were perfectly willing to hand them a shotgun.
So, what does any of this have to do with linebackers? Err....hmmm....gimme a second. I'm sure I can spin some nonsensical connection here.
I suppose, much like we discussed with last year's list of linebackers, that we are just expressing our preference for football players who approach the game with a lack of restraint, or concern for their own well-being. I suspect that you kind of have to throw common sense out the window to truly excel as a linebacker, because anyone with an instinct for self-preservation would probably choose another profession. Still, there are quite a few players who seem to tiptoe around the field, and that greatly diminishes the benefits of the "bread and circuses" distractions that the Lizard People are trying to provide for us. Timid play diverts our attention from the spectacle before us, and makes us start to contemplate things like "Is the fluoridation of our tap water really an attempt to drug us, and control our minds?" These are things we really shouldn't be thinking about, if we know what is good for us, and watching players recklessly assault one another helps to keep our mind at peace.
Sleep....sleeeeeeeeeep........sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeep......You want to buy a Ford F-150.....Coors Light is delicious and refreshing......sleeeeeeeep.......... Vote yes for funding a new $1.5 billion stadium in Los Angeles........sleeeep..........
Since the athletic traits of players in this category are measured against all defensive prospects who are under 275#, this skews their results when it comes to the Kangaroo Score, because they don't have the same mass as some of the larger outside pass rushers in this weight class. Since the goal is to see how many standard deviations away from an average result that a player is, we have to make some mental adjustments here. For these (generally) lighter prospects, a Kangaroo Score of -0.800, would be the approximate point at which we would find the 'average' player in this group. Among these lighter prospects, you typically start to see Pro Bowl and All Pro players reaching a score of -0.400, or better. Just like the Kangaroo Score, the Agility Score (which comes from the short shuttle and 3-cone drill), will also be given in the form of how many standard deviations away from the average result that a player is. While the Kangaroo Scores for these players tend to suffer by comparison to heavier players, these lighter prospects generally make up for this by having an advantage when it comes to how nimble they are. So, we prefer to see Agility Scores that are at least 1.000 standard deviation above average. Normally, I would expect a player with a higher Kangaroo Score to be a stronger hitter, and more productive on blitzes, while a player with a high Agility Score will probably be better in coverage. Still, nothing is set in stone, and individuals do vary in how they perform.
This list will continue to be modified and updated, as new data and prospects come to my attention. The list won't include every player. but instead, just the ones that I find interesting for one reason or another. Last Updated: 4/26/2015
Eric Kendricks ILB, UCLA
40 Time: 4.61 Kangaroo Score: -0.136 Agility Score: 0.777
As far as Kendricks's athletic ability is concerned, things seem to check out rather nicely. He has perfectly acceptable speed. His Kangaroo Score is significantly above average for a player in this weight class. His Agility Score might be a bit lower than we would like, but that seems like the product of an irregularity with the results from his 3-cone drill. Fortunately, this irregularity favors his short shuttle score, which is 1.236 standard deviations above average, and something we highly value in linebackers. When it comes to his statistical production, he appears to have been a fairly dominant and consistent force over the course of several years, which we love to see. In the handful of games we watched, he performed just as well as we would have hoped, based on his data. He seemed rather versatile, and appeared to do well against the run and in coverage. We really see no reason to object to him. Among the players generally projected to be taken near the end of the 1st round, we think he is probably one of the better/safer options, and someone we could have some real interest in. An added bonus is that he was born on February 29th, so his skills should erode at a quarter of the normal rate for an NFL player.
Shaq Thompson OLB/S, Washington
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -1.270 Agility Score: 1.232
He seems to be everyone's favorite 'jack of all trades, master of none' candidate. As a linebacker prospect, I have my doubts about whether he has the size or power to avoid getting physically abused. Honestly, we'd probably rule him out as a linebacker, though our opinion of him as a safety is quite a bit more positive. That requires comparing his traits to a very different set of athletes, which results in very different scores..
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -0.130 Agility Score: 1.182
&
Eli Harold OLB, Virginia
40 Time: 4.53 Kangaroo Score: 0.137 Agility Score: 0.856
It's hard to say how Gregory or Harold would do as a LB in a 4-3 or as an ILB in a 3-4, but we just wanted to throw that option out there. We weren't terribly impressed by either one of them as 3-4 OLB or DE prospects, but their measurable traits suggest that this sort of position switch might be beneficial. In fact, they would be comparable to some fairly impressive NFL players at this position. Unfortunately, this requires quite a bit of wild speculation, since what they did in college doesn't really give us a great glimpse of how they would do in this very different sort of role. It's probably not something I would want to gamble on with a high pick, but if they end up struggling early on in their careers (assuming that they become 3-4 OLBs), a position switch could be interesting. This possibility sort of makes us think about the similar situation that the Dolphins are in, as they are now contemplating a similar switch with Dion Jordan, whom we also disliked as a pass rushing prospect.
Bernardrick McKinney OLB, Mississippi St.
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: 0.730 Agility Score: 0.282
I have very mixed feelings about McKinney. On the one hand, his Kangaroo Score suggests significantly above average lower body power and explosiveness. For a player at his position, I would expect that to translate to being fairly stout against the run, and possibly making him a decent blitzer. On the other hand, his Agility Score might suggest that he is a bit stiff, and could struggle in coverage. It's like reading the future in chicken bones. In the handful of games that I was able to watch, these expectations seemed to be rather accurate, though I also got the impression that he was just a fairly average tackler. Now, if somebody wanted to use him as a thumping inside linebacker in a 3-4, who you might pull off the field in obvious passing situations, I guess I could see him doing a decent job in that role. If he is going to be selected in the 2nd round, as many seem to suggest, I just think the value of a player like this might be a bit debatable for that sort of investment.
Stephone Anthony ILB, Clemson
40 Time: 4.56 Kangaroo Score: 0.162 Agility Score: 1.216
It's hard to criticize Anthony's athletic ability. He's pretty much an ideal physical specimen. As far as his actual production goes, he's a bit more peculiar. Compared to most MLBs, he had a rather high number of eye catching plays (TFLs, FFs, sacks, etc), but a surprisingly low tackle count. The role that his Clemson teammates had in helping to inflate some of his stats is hard to judge, though it's also impossible to discount. The defense did appear to be rather talented as a whole. When we watched him play, we actually thought he looked rather good, though we sometimes questioned the decisions he made. Compared to Eric Kendricks, Anthony seems like a potentially higher reward type of player, but also a potentially higher risk. If he continues to be ranked as a 2nd round pick, we'd probably view that as an acceptable price for someone like him.
Hau'oli Kikaha OLB, Washington
40 Time: 4.93 Kangaroo Score: -0.462 Agility Score: 0.101
This was a player who we were very curious to learn about, but after his pro day we've lost a lot of interest. He doesn't seem to quite fit the ideal mold for an outside pass rusher, but he also doesn't seem to be fast enough, or agile enough, to be exciting as a more conventional linebacker. Since people seem to be projecting that he will be a selection in the 2nd or 3rd round, that would be significantly more costly than what we would consider to be reasonable.
Paul Dawson ILB, TCU
40 Time: 4.75 Kangaroo Score: -1.890* Agility Score: 0.540*
We're not fans of the "He's a football player, not a track star" argument. Why not say,"I'm not an athlete, but I play one in football games." In an attempt to be generous, we're listing Dawson's results based on his pro day. While people may point to a player like Vontaze Burfict, as an example of someone who tested poorly but seems to have done well in the NFL, we view that as a rather large exception to the rules. Also, similar to Burfict, some people seem to be expressing concerns with Dawson's character. At least when the Bengal's picked up Burfict as an UDFA, the balance of risk versus reward was strongly tilted in their favor. They had nothing to lose. We have to admit that we won't be watching any of Dawson's games, even though we do respect his statistical production, because it would just be a waste of our time. Even if we thought he looked like a good player, this just isn't the sort of gamble we are looking to pursue.
Kwon Alexander OLB, LSU
40 Time: 4.55 Kangaroo Score: -0.792 Agility Score: 0.610
Well, if we can trust Rod Tidwell, then "it's all about the kwon". So he has that going for him. Honestly, we have minimal interest in Alexander as a linebacker prospect. His athletic ability is just on the fringe of what we would consider. His statistical production is passable, but not very interesting. Seeing as he frequently seems to be listed as a 3rd round prospect, there is very little that would make us want to pay that price. On the other hand, his physical traits and smaller size (about 6'0.5" and 227 pounds), do make him a fairly respectable fit for the strong safety position. Overall, he didn't make much of a positive impression on us as a linebacker.
Denzel Perryman ILB, Miami
40 Time: 4.78 Kangaroo Score: -1.319 Agility Score: ?
We're still waiting for data from Perryman's pro day, so we haven't completely made up our minds about him Nonetheless, we already have some concerns about his somewhat mediocre speed, and below average lower body power. It's causing us to lean strongly towards the idea that Perryman should only go to a 4-3 team, with a rather stout defensive line to protect him. While we liked his statistical production, and thought he generally looked fairly respectable in the games we watched, we currently would have a hard time accepting the 2nd round grade that many people seem to have given to him.
Ben Heeney ILB, Kansas
40 Time: 4.59 Kangaroo Score: -0.975 Agility Score: 2.050
If you put him in a colander, he would probably come running out the other end. At least that is the sort of fluidity that the computer feels Heeney has based on his Agility Score. While we like his athletic ability, we still would have some concerns about his fairly mediocre Kangaroo Score. This potential lack of power might require that he play behind a fairly solid defensive line. Despite that concern, we thought he was one of the more enjoyable linebacker prospects that we have watched so far. In many ways, both in terms of athletic ability on the field play, he reminded us of Paul Worrilow, and no, it's not just because they suffer from the same terrible birth defect. While both players have exceptional agility, that we would normally associate with coverage linebackers, this doesn't seem to be the real area of strength for either player. Instead, they both seem to be roving tackling machines, who do better against the run. We would be rather interested in acquiring Heeney for Team Kangaroo if he is still be available in the 3rd or 4th round.
Jordan Hicks OLB, Texas
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: 0.061 Agility Score: 1.442
At least on paper, this is a prospect I would normally get excited about. Hicks has fairly ideal athletic traits for a linebacker. His statistical production in college, at least in his senior year, also looks rather impressive. Unfortunately, when we watched him play, the only description that popped into my head was 'bozo'. That seems to happen a lot with players from Texas. We also have to consider the fact that Hicks has missed a rather significant amount of playing time due to injuries. In 2012, he missed time with a hip injury. In 2013, it was his achilles tendon. Somebody clearly doesn't know how to "rub some dirt on it". When I look around, I seem to see him projected as a mid round pick. I guess that there are worse prospects, but the 5th or 6th round is about as high as I could see taking him, and even then I wouldn't be thrilled with doing so.
Mike Hull OLB, Penn State
40 Time: 4.68 Kangaroo Score: -1.636 Agility Score: 1.038
Well, the numbers would suggest that Hull is a reasonably nimble linebacker, with a possibly serious shortage of power. As far as I can tell, based on watching him play, he seems to fit that description. I wouldn't say that he looked bad, because he definitely had his positive moments, but I do think this guy is probably better suited to playing in a 4-3, or at least going to a team with a serious defensive line to protect him. Even then I suspect I wouldn't want to see him become a starter, though he could be okay for depth. One other drawback is that he will already be turning 24 in May, and has really only had one college season with significant production. I probably wouldn't pursue him, but I could understand why someone might take him somewhere late in the draft.
Bryce Hager ILB, Baylor
40 Time: 4.6 Kangaroo Score: -0.802 Agility Score: 0.148
I'm starting to wonder if the defensive players at Baylor have their statistical production inflated, in a similar manner to what we normally see with their offensive players. Despite a fairly impressive stat sheet, I don't really see much here that would make me interested in pursuing Hager. There are probably worse prospects than Hager, but I just don't get the sense that he possesses much upside.
Jake Ryan OLB, Michigan
40 Time: 4.65 Kangaroo Score: -0.493 Agility Score: 0.668
Oh, I don't know. Ryan seems like a fairly respectable and serviceable athlete. I could even make an argument for boosting his Agility Score a tad, based on some irregularities in his results. I sometimes questioned his decision making and range, but as a straight ahead hitter, and occasional blitzer, he seemed fairly good. In what I suspect is a relatively mediocre draft class, I could see him as one of the more interesting late round linebackers, though I probably wouldn't bet on stardom. People seem to be projecting that he will get selected somewhere around the 5th round, and that sounds about right to me.
Damien Wilson ILB, Minnesota
40 Time: 4.77 Kangaroo Score: 0.091 Agility Score: 0.476
In Damien Wilson's case, I have to admit that we are missing a fair amount of data that we would like to have. We also weren't able to watch him play very much, so we sort of have to base our hunches off of his numbers. Athletically, he should be a fairly reasonable prospect. His speed is a bit pedestrian, but acceptable. He should have good lower body power and explosiveness. As far as his agility is concerned, he wasn't amazing, though his short shuttle results were very promising. He also appears to have been fairly productive in his final college season. The main reason to be interested in Wilson is that he generally isn't projected to be drafted at all. So, a team could probably bring him in as an UDFA. If so, he has enough potential to be interesting, but a team wouldn't be taking any real risks. That's not a bad situation to be in.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Kangaroo Court: The 2014 Linebackers
What do you fear the most? What makes you wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat? Is it the Peruvian ridge-backed chupacabra that haunts your dreams? Maybe, the Nicaraguan sabre-toothed chupacabra? Perhaps it is the ring-tailed chupacabra of the Oaxaca region of Mexico? Many an intrepid cryptozoologist has fallen prey to all of these creatures (exact statistics on chupacabra related deaths are unavailable due to the Lizard People covering up their existence), and I'm sure each and every one of these fallen heroes was convinced that there was nothing more terrifying than the particular beast which took them down.
Maybe your answer is simply,"My primary fear in life is the chupacabra, regardless of their regional variety". This would be a very wise answer, as no chupacabra should be underestimated (particularly if they are protecting their nest). Debating minor differences in how quickly you would be killed, by one chupacabra versus another, are pointless. In much the same way, I feel that the desire to classify linebackers as inside linebackers, outside linebackers, linebackers for a 4-3 defense, or those for a 3-4 defense, can become a bit ridiculous. I prefer to keep an open mind about most prospects, though I will acknowledge that some players do have traits that might limit their versatility. I just wouldn't recommend making rash judgements based on minor differences in weight, which often seems to be the way these things are done. It's the size of the fight in thechupacabra linebacker that matters most.
"80% of life is showing up"-Woody Allen
This quote sums up my views on tackle statistics (as well as TFLs, PBUs, INTs, and forced fumbles). People often want to downplay a player's number of tackles, but particularly for linebackers, I don't think they should. Even if this sometimes means accepting the fact that not all tackles are equal, I prefer to see a linebacker who at least shows up to where the ball is, even if it is just for an assisted tackle. I still have a preference for solo tackles, but arriving on the scene to help a teammate probably shouldn't be so casually dismissed. For middle linebackers, in particular, I expect to see very high tackle counts, if I am going to take them seriously. People have occasionally questioned the value of tackle stats for defensive players, arguing that pile jumpers accumulate cheap stats just by showing up late in the play. There might be some minor truth to this, but do you know what is worse than a cheaply acquired stat? Not acquiring any stats at all, that's what.
"I only have one rule. Everyone fights. No one quits. You don't do your job, I'll shoot you myself."-Jean Rasczak (from the Academy Award winning movie Starship Troopers)
While I most likely wouldn't support threatening to shoot a teammate just to motivate them (there may be exceptions), I think this line pretty well captures the relentless lunacy I expect to see in a linebacker. I sadly have to admit that there is some subjective analysis that goes into all of this. While I generally only support players who have high statistical production, along with great athleticism, at some point I have to prioritize the few remaining players who managed to survive the weeding-out process. At that point, it pretty much comes down to who I think was the most entertaining to watch, which also tends to be the person who I would least like to have chasing me down a dark alley. I want my linebackers to play with a murderous rage and violence, even if this frequently seems to trickle into their off the field behavior. I'm not married to these lunatics, so I'm not really terribly concerned if they are borderline insane. I want them to be fueled by methamphetamine and 'roid rage...unless my annual income suddenly increases to the point where I might end up being neighbors with them...but until then, unleash the berserkers!
There is one additional factor that can cause me to rate a player higher than the conventional wisdom would dictate was sensible. If the player, either legally or just as a nickname, is referred to as either Gator, Tank, or Peanut, this has some special appeal to me. Yes, I am keeping a watchful eye on Gator Hoskins. I can't say that these names have a strong correlation to a player having a successful career, but it can't hurt.
Since the athletic traits of players in this category are measured against all defensive prospects who are under 275#, this skews their results when it comes to the Kangaroo Score, because they don't have the same mass as some of the larger outside pass rushers in this weight class. Since the goal is to see how many standard deviations away from an average result that a player is, we have to make some mental adjustments here. For these (generally) lighter prospects, a Kangaroo Score of -0.800, would be the approximate point at which we would find the 'average' player in this group. Among these lighter prospects, you typically start to see Pro Bowl and All Pro players reaching a score of -0.400, or better. Just like the Kangaroo Score, the Agility Score (which comes from the short shuttle and 3-cone drill), will also be given in the form of how many standard deviations away from the average result that a player is. Normally, I would expect a player with a higher Kangaroo Score to be a stronger hitter, and more productive on blitzes, while a player with a high Agility Score will probably be better in coverage. Still, nothing is set in stone, and individuals do vary in how they perform.
This list will continue to be modified and updated, as new data and prospects come to my attention. The list won't include every player. but instead, just the ones that I find interesting for one reason or another. Updated 5/4/2014
Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: 0.563 Agility Score: 1.255
As I said earlier in the post on DEs & 3-4 OLBs, I think Barr might be more interesting as an OLB in a 4-3, rather than in a 3-4. While he's a physically gifted guy, and has been quite productive, I think he does much better when operating in space, and struggles a bit more when directly tied up with OTs. That's just my opinion, and I'm not inclined to make much of a fuss about it if others disagree.
C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
40 Time: 4.62 Kangaroo Score: -0.748 Agility Score: -0.251
Well, he appears to have extremely average lower body power, slightly below average agility, and speed of the okay-to-"meh" variety. This sort of mediocre athleticism might actually be excusable, if the player had exceptional statistical production, but he doesn't. Don't get me wrong, he was reasonably productive, just not enough to make me perk up and pay attention. It also probably doesn't help that whenever I watched him play, I felt myself slipping into a coma out of sheer boredom. I really don't see anything to suggest that he deserves to be taken before the 4th or 5th round. Still, he will probably be taken fairly early, and many opportunities to start will be given to him. People will see what they want to see, and be eager to say that he is performing brilliantly. If he does end up as a disappointment, I think it will probably take time for people to come to that conclusion, as people will mainly want to see the positive aspects of a high draft pick. I really don't see what makes him any different from his predecessor, the mediocre Rolando McClain. Of course, there are still people who insist that McClain was a real talent, even to this day, and I've largely given up on trying to debate this issue.
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
40 Time: 4.38 Kangaroo Score: 0.964 Agility Score: 1.026
Shazier is going to put me into an awkward position. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. Yes, his statistical production in college was very impressive. Still, despite all of that, I'm just not terribly excited about him. Every time I watch him play, I just see a guy that makes weak or ineffectual tackles, which is not something I want to see in a linebacker. Then I look at his stat sheet, and I am confronted with somebody who doesn't appear to have any problem racking up tackles. Cognitive dissonance is rattling my mind. I had a similar issue with Bobby Wagner a couple of years ago. The computer loved him, but watching him play just didn't set my panties on fire. So, you're probably best served by ignoring my deranged concerns on Shazier, because the computer thinks he could be a star.
Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU
40 Time: 4.71 Kangaroo Score: -1.002 Agility Score: 0.456
This was already covered in the post about DEs and 3-4 OLBs, but since Van Noy could be suitable for a 4-3 defense, I am forced to repeat some things. While I do think Van Noy would do better in a 4-3, I still would feel a bit nervous about him.. There are aspects of his statistical production that are very encouraging, like his high number of TFLs. Then, there are aspects of his physical profile that I find very worrisome, such as his below average Kangaroo Score. Taking him in the first few rounds, where he is projected to go, strikes me as very risky, so I would avoid him.
Trevor Reilly, OLB, Utah
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: -0.907 Agility Score: ?
I really don't care what his measurables are, or how productive he was in college. He's 26 years old, and that freaks me out. By the time he adjusts to the higher level of competition in the NFL, he will probably be entering his inevitable physical decline. I just don't get how people are projecting him as a 2nd to 3rd round draft pick.
Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut
40 Time: 5.01 Kangaroo Score: -0.548 Agility Score: ?
It's starting to look like we will never get a full set of results for Smallwood. His Kangaroo Score is acceptable, if not particularly exciting. I suspect he is avoiding doing the short shuttle and 3-Cone drills, because he knows he will do poorly in them. From what I have seen nimbly-toed gracefulness is not his strong suit, so I'm not surprised that he might duck out of doing these drills. His statistical production was above average, but I can't say I was too impressed by him. He didn't seem to be an amazing tackler, despite his stats, or terribly aggressive. He also seemed to be just about as slow as his wretched 40 time would suggest. I think he's overrated, for a player that people are projecting will go in the 3rd round.
Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin
40 Time: 4.83 Kangaroo Score: -0.257 Agility Score: 0.340
He actually strikes me as an okay little prospect. Nothing about him really blows me away, but I could see him being a solid role player, that might even thrive in the right situation. His college production was a fair bit above average, and he showed some ability as a blitzer as well as a handful of tipped passes. He strikes me as a somewhat athletically limited guy, who might do better as an ILB in a 3-4, where he wouldn't have to cover as much ground. When I watched him play, he seemed to run in the wrong direction a little bit more than I would hope for. I don't expect him to become a star, but wouldn't be surprised if he is a useful/serviceable type of player, and probably wouldn't take him before the 4th round.
Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
40 Time: ? Kangaroo Score: ? Agility Score: ?
I can't say too much about Skov until we get some sort of Pro Day results. I thought he looked pretty good against the run, but rather poor in coverage. Injuries seem to be an issue for him. Without some sort of confirmed measurables, I would be forced to pass on him.
Telvin Smith, OLB, Florida State
40 Time: 4.52 Kangaroo Score: -1.867 Agility Score: -0.442
Let's see if we can save some time here, by being succinct. I think he is going to struggle to have much of an impact. Too succinct? Okay. I think he is going to get annihilated if someone insists on playing him at linebacker. Of course, some people would suggest that he might play strong safety, since he is only 6'3", and 218 pounds. That sounds reasonable until you look at his Agility Score, which would be even lower if he was being compared to the average results for defensive backs. I'm not sure that there really is an appropriate position for him.
Jordan Tripp, OLB, Montana
40 Time: 4.67 Kangaroo Score: -0.316 Agility Score: 1.757
As an overall athlete, Tripp is rather impressive, and his statistical production was quite good, even if it came against a relatively low level of competition. Still, from the little I have been able to see of him, he didn't really blow my mind. He struck me as relatively soft, and someone who mainly excelled in coverage, which probably isn't surprising when you consider his excellent Agility Score. I think he has some potential, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to pursue him as high as the 3rd round, where people seem to be projecting that he will be taken. Still, he is somebody who I would keep my eye on.
Christian Kirksey, OLB, Iowa
40 Time: 4.50 Kangaroo Score: -0.452 Agility Score: 0.059
I wouldn't make fun of anyone for selecting Kirksey. He has fairly good athletic ability. He was pretty productive, even if he didn't make as many plays behind the line of scrimmage as I would like to see. In the little I have seen of him, he looked pretty good on the field. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be an okay player, though I'm not sure if he is special enough to warrant a 3rd round pick, which is where I see people projecting him to go. It should also be mentioned that Iowa had a surprising number of reasonably talented players on their defense, such as James Morris and Anthony Hitchens, who will also be selected in this draft, which somewhat makes me wonder how much Kirksey benefited from all of this.
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College
40 Time: 4.51 Kangaroo Score: 0.205 Agility Score: 1.533
Hello? Is it Pierre-Louis you're looking for? I really like Pierre-Louis. He's quick (1.53 10-yard split), fast, powerful, and agile. When I watched him play, he more than met the expectations I had based on his measurable traits. He looked good in coverage. He was impressive on blitzes. He seemed more than capable of running people down, and made good tackles. People seem to be projecting that he will be taken in the 5th or 6th round, but I suspect he will go higher than that. I have to imagine that the relatively low projections people have for him are being influenced by his weight (232#), and the fact that he has missed 3 games in 2012 and 2011 with injuries, but this doesn't really bother me too much. While I can understand how people might not be thrilled with his weight, that seems like something that can be cured with a high-cheeseburger diet. I suspect he could become a rather special player, and be more positionally versatile than some might expect. He's a rather high priority target for Team Kangaroo, and I would go so far as to say that I greatly prefer him over the more highly touted Ryan Shazier. I would probably start to consider Pierre-Louis in the 3rd round.
Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -0.338 Agility Score: 0.002
On paper, he's a fairly mediocre athlete, with fairly good statistical production. He didn't make much of an impression on me. In fact, he kind of put me to sleep. I suspect playing at LSU is the main reason he is getting mentioned as a prospect. People are projecting that he will go in the 4th to 5th round, but I would ignore him.
Morgan Breslin, OLB, USC
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: -0.662 Agility Score: ?
It's really unfortunate that we may never get to know Breslin's Agility Score, as I think he is a really interesting prospect. As a pass rusher, he was about as productive as anyone who will be available in this year's draft, though he was derailed by injuries this last year. His Kangaroo Score isn't quite what I would have hoped to see, but is still within the tolerable/average range for a linebacker. His speed is perfectly acceptable, though his 10-yard split of 1.59 seconds is even more promising. So, we are left wondering if he might have some sort of extreme agility that would make him a worthwhile target, and explain whether he can continue to do well. I loved watching him play, but without sufficient data to make an assessment, I would have to pass on him, which annoys me a bit.
Preston Brown, ILB, Louisville
40 Time: 4.86 Kangaroo Score: -0.143 Agility Score: 0.753
I don't want it to sound as if I am terribly excited about Brown, because I'm not. Still, if he were used as a 3-4 ILB, he might be somewhat useful, and I think this might minimize his shortcomings in terms of speed. He's a fairly nimble, hefty player (251#), who just doesn't appear to have much range. His college production was reasonably good, though nothing amazing. I probably wouldn't pursue him, but if he was there in the 6th round, I could see him producing acceptable results for the right team.
Carlos Fields, OLB, Winston-Salem State
40 Time: 4.50 Kangaroo Score: 0.378 Agility Score: 0.748
This is probably only going to cause me heartache, but I have to do it. If you're looking for a Paul Worrilow or Vincent Rey type of linebacker prospect, someone extremely cheap who might emerge as something special, this might be your guy. Yes, he played at a goofy school, but he seems to have been reasonably dominant while he was there, which is all you can ask from him. He showed production in almost every aspect of the game, making tackles for a loss, interceptions, and forced fumbles. From the little I have been able to see of him, he looks like he could be a terror. Athletically, he has the speed, power, and agility to be quite special. For some reason, that I can't explain, people seem to think that C.J. Mosley is a 1st round talent, and that Fields is a nobody who might not even get drafted. If I had to choose, I would go with Fields over Mosley every single time, and the fact that one will be much cheaper than the other just makes it an even simpler decision. Am I saying that I would take Fields in the 1st round? Hell no! I'm just dumpster diving here, and looking for value. There are no guarantees that Fields will turn out to be a good player, but if he is given an opportunity I think the odds are better than some might suspect. Unfortunately, I do have to worry about whether a team will give him much of a chance, and that his talent will be squandered. I would probably start to target Fields in the 5th or 6th round, though many are projecting that he will go even later, if he is even selected at all. I have to admit that I have a serious weakness for strange prospects like Fields.
Brock Coyle, ILB, Montana
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: -0.601 Agility Score: 1.160
While his measruables aren't quite as impressive as his Montana teammate Jordan Tripp, they are still rather good. Just like I said with Tripp, I would be concerned about the level of competition that Coyle faced, though there isn't much we can do about that. It is what it is. I can't claim to have watched very much of him, since Montana games are difficult to come across, but from the little I have witnessed, I think I preferred him to Tripp. He just struck me as the more intimidating, and aggressive player, who might also be a better tackler. Since Coyle is only projected to be a 7th-round-to-undrafted type of prospect, the price of admission is also lower. As a 'lottery ticket' pick at the very end of the draft, I think he could be rather interesting.
James Morris, ILB, Iowa
40 Time: 4.78 Kangaroo Score: -0.179 Agility Score: 0.553
He appears to be a good athlete with good statistical production. Like his teammate Christian Kirksey, I have to wonder how much he benefited from the talent that surrounded him at Iowa, but for a player that is projected to go in the 7th round, or go undrafted, this is less of a concern. While I wouldn't bet on him becoming a star, I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms a number of the more overrated prospects who will be taken ahead of him, if he is given a chance.
Howard Jones, OLB, Shepherd
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: 0.339 Agility Score: -0.009
Jones is obviously an odd duck, coming from Shepherd College. Still, for someone who is only projected to be a late round pick, he has some upside. His 10-yard split (1.58 seconds) suggests that he has good quickness, and he has decent speed, but it is his above average Kangaroo Score (for someone his size, at least) that is probably his best attribute. It would suggest that he could be a decent pas rusher, as a 4-3 OLB, which was sort of his area of strength in college, where he accumulated a lot of TFLs. Outside of that, I think he would probably just be fairly average. He's not someone I would freak out about, but he might have some upside.
Maybe your answer is simply,"My primary fear in life is the chupacabra, regardless of their regional variety". This would be a very wise answer, as no chupacabra should be underestimated (particularly if they are protecting their nest). Debating minor differences in how quickly you would be killed, by one chupacabra versus another, are pointless. In much the same way, I feel that the desire to classify linebackers as inside linebackers, outside linebackers, linebackers for a 4-3 defense, or those for a 3-4 defense, can become a bit ridiculous. I prefer to keep an open mind about most prospects, though I will acknowledge that some players do have traits that might limit their versatility. I just wouldn't recommend making rash judgements based on minor differences in weight, which often seems to be the way these things are done. It's the size of the fight in the
"80% of life is showing up"-Woody Allen
This quote sums up my views on tackle statistics (as well as TFLs, PBUs, INTs, and forced fumbles). People often want to downplay a player's number of tackles, but particularly for linebackers, I don't think they should. Even if this sometimes means accepting the fact that not all tackles are equal, I prefer to see a linebacker who at least shows up to where the ball is, even if it is just for an assisted tackle. I still have a preference for solo tackles, but arriving on the scene to help a teammate probably shouldn't be so casually dismissed. For middle linebackers, in particular, I expect to see very high tackle counts, if I am going to take them seriously. People have occasionally questioned the value of tackle stats for defensive players, arguing that pile jumpers accumulate cheap stats just by showing up late in the play. There might be some minor truth to this, but do you know what is worse than a cheaply acquired stat? Not acquiring any stats at all, that's what.
"I only have one rule. Everyone fights. No one quits. You don't do your job, I'll shoot you myself."-Jean Rasczak (from the Academy Award winning movie Starship Troopers)
While I most likely wouldn't support threatening to shoot a teammate just to motivate them (there may be exceptions), I think this line pretty well captures the relentless lunacy I expect to see in a linebacker. I sadly have to admit that there is some subjective analysis that goes into all of this. While I generally only support players who have high statistical production, along with great athleticism, at some point I have to prioritize the few remaining players who managed to survive the weeding-out process. At that point, it pretty much comes down to who I think was the most entertaining to watch, which also tends to be the person who I would least like to have chasing me down a dark alley. I want my linebackers to play with a murderous rage and violence, even if this frequently seems to trickle into their off the field behavior. I'm not married to these lunatics, so I'm not really terribly concerned if they are borderline insane. I want them to be fueled by methamphetamine and 'roid rage...unless my annual income suddenly increases to the point where I might end up being neighbors with them...but until then, unleash the berserkers!
There is one additional factor that can cause me to rate a player higher than the conventional wisdom would dictate was sensible. If the player, either legally or just as a nickname, is referred to as either Gator, Tank, or Peanut, this has some special appeal to me. Yes, I am keeping a watchful eye on Gator Hoskins. I can't say that these names have a strong correlation to a player having a successful career, but it can't hurt.
Since the athletic traits of players in this category are measured against all defensive prospects who are under 275#, this skews their results when it comes to the Kangaroo Score, because they don't have the same mass as some of the larger outside pass rushers in this weight class. Since the goal is to see how many standard deviations away from an average result that a player is, we have to make some mental adjustments here. For these (generally) lighter prospects, a Kangaroo Score of -0.800, would be the approximate point at which we would find the 'average' player in this group. Among these lighter prospects, you typically start to see Pro Bowl and All Pro players reaching a score of -0.400, or better. Just like the Kangaroo Score, the Agility Score (which comes from the short shuttle and 3-cone drill), will also be given in the form of how many standard deviations away from the average result that a player is. Normally, I would expect a player with a higher Kangaroo Score to be a stronger hitter, and more productive on blitzes, while a player with a high Agility Score will probably be better in coverage. Still, nothing is set in stone, and individuals do vary in how they perform.
This list will continue to be modified and updated, as new data and prospects come to my attention. The list won't include every player. but instead, just the ones that I find interesting for one reason or another. Updated 5/4/2014
Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: 0.563 Agility Score: 1.255
As I said earlier in the post on DEs & 3-4 OLBs, I think Barr might be more interesting as an OLB in a 4-3, rather than in a 3-4. While he's a physically gifted guy, and has been quite productive, I think he does much better when operating in space, and struggles a bit more when directly tied up with OTs. That's just my opinion, and I'm not inclined to make much of a fuss about it if others disagree.
C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
40 Time: 4.62 Kangaroo Score: -0.748 Agility Score: -0.251
Well, he appears to have extremely average lower body power, slightly below average agility, and speed of the okay-to-"meh" variety. This sort of mediocre athleticism might actually be excusable, if the player had exceptional statistical production, but he doesn't. Don't get me wrong, he was reasonably productive, just not enough to make me perk up and pay attention. It also probably doesn't help that whenever I watched him play, I felt myself slipping into a coma out of sheer boredom. I really don't see anything to suggest that he deserves to be taken before the 4th or 5th round. Still, he will probably be taken fairly early, and many opportunities to start will be given to him. People will see what they want to see, and be eager to say that he is performing brilliantly. If he does end up as a disappointment, I think it will probably take time for people to come to that conclusion, as people will mainly want to see the positive aspects of a high draft pick. I really don't see what makes him any different from his predecessor, the mediocre Rolando McClain. Of course, there are still people who insist that McClain was a real talent, even to this day, and I've largely given up on trying to debate this issue.
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
40 Time: 4.38 Kangaroo Score: 0.964 Agility Score: 1.026
Shazier is going to put me into an awkward position. Yes, he is an amazing athlete. Yes, his statistical production in college was very impressive. Still, despite all of that, I'm just not terribly excited about him. Every time I watch him play, I just see a guy that makes weak or ineffectual tackles, which is not something I want to see in a linebacker. Then I look at his stat sheet, and I am confronted with somebody who doesn't appear to have any problem racking up tackles. Cognitive dissonance is rattling my mind. I had a similar issue with Bobby Wagner a couple of years ago. The computer loved him, but watching him play just didn't set my panties on fire. So, you're probably best served by ignoring my deranged concerns on Shazier, because the computer thinks he could be a star.
Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU
40 Time: 4.71 Kangaroo Score: -1.002 Agility Score: 0.456
This was already covered in the post about DEs and 3-4 OLBs, but since Van Noy could be suitable for a 4-3 defense, I am forced to repeat some things. While I do think Van Noy would do better in a 4-3, I still would feel a bit nervous about him.. There are aspects of his statistical production that are very encouraging, like his high number of TFLs. Then, there are aspects of his physical profile that I find very worrisome, such as his below average Kangaroo Score. Taking him in the first few rounds, where he is projected to go, strikes me as very risky, so I would avoid him.
Trevor Reilly, OLB, Utah
40 Time: 4.66 Kangaroo Score: -0.907 Agility Score: ?
I really don't care what his measurables are, or how productive he was in college. He's 26 years old, and that freaks me out. By the time he adjusts to the higher level of competition in the NFL, he will probably be entering his inevitable physical decline. I just don't get how people are projecting him as a 2nd to 3rd round draft pick.
Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut
40 Time: 5.01 Kangaroo Score: -0.548 Agility Score: ?
It's starting to look like we will never get a full set of results for Smallwood. His Kangaroo Score is acceptable, if not particularly exciting. I suspect he is avoiding doing the short shuttle and 3-Cone drills, because he knows he will do poorly in them. From what I have seen nimbly-toed gracefulness is not his strong suit, so I'm not surprised that he might duck out of doing these drills. His statistical production was above average, but I can't say I was too impressed by him. He didn't seem to be an amazing tackler, despite his stats, or terribly aggressive. He also seemed to be just about as slow as his wretched 40 time would suggest. I think he's overrated, for a player that people are projecting will go in the 3rd round.
Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin
40 Time: 4.83 Kangaroo Score: -0.257 Agility Score: 0.340
He actually strikes me as an okay little prospect. Nothing about him really blows me away, but I could see him being a solid role player, that might even thrive in the right situation. His college production was a fair bit above average, and he showed some ability as a blitzer as well as a handful of tipped passes. He strikes me as a somewhat athletically limited guy, who might do better as an ILB in a 3-4, where he wouldn't have to cover as much ground. When I watched him play, he seemed to run in the wrong direction a little bit more than I would hope for. I don't expect him to become a star, but wouldn't be surprised if he is a useful/serviceable type of player, and probably wouldn't take him before the 4th round.
Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
40 Time: ? Kangaroo Score: ? Agility Score: ?
I can't say too much about Skov until we get some sort of Pro Day results. I thought he looked pretty good against the run, but rather poor in coverage. Injuries seem to be an issue for him. Without some sort of confirmed measurables, I would be forced to pass on him.
Telvin Smith, OLB, Florida State
40 Time: 4.52 Kangaroo Score: -1.867 Agility Score: -0.442
Let's see if we can save some time here, by being succinct. I think he is going to struggle to have much of an impact. Too succinct? Okay. I think he is going to get annihilated if someone insists on playing him at linebacker. Of course, some people would suggest that he might play strong safety, since he is only 6'3", and 218 pounds. That sounds reasonable until you look at his Agility Score, which would be even lower if he was being compared to the average results for defensive backs. I'm not sure that there really is an appropriate position for him.
Jordan Tripp, OLB, Montana
40 Time: 4.67 Kangaroo Score: -0.316 Agility Score: 1.757
As an overall athlete, Tripp is rather impressive, and his statistical production was quite good, even if it came against a relatively low level of competition. Still, from the little I have been able to see of him, he didn't really blow my mind. He struck me as relatively soft, and someone who mainly excelled in coverage, which probably isn't surprising when you consider his excellent Agility Score. I think he has some potential, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to pursue him as high as the 3rd round, where people seem to be projecting that he will be taken. Still, he is somebody who I would keep my eye on.
Christian Kirksey, OLB, Iowa
40 Time: 4.50 Kangaroo Score: -0.452 Agility Score: 0.059
I wouldn't make fun of anyone for selecting Kirksey. He has fairly good athletic ability. He was pretty productive, even if he didn't make as many plays behind the line of scrimmage as I would like to see. In the little I have seen of him, he looked pretty good on the field. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be an okay player, though I'm not sure if he is special enough to warrant a 3rd round pick, which is where I see people projecting him to go. It should also be mentioned that Iowa had a surprising number of reasonably talented players on their defense, such as James Morris and Anthony Hitchens, who will also be selected in this draft, which somewhat makes me wonder how much Kirksey benefited from all of this.
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College
40 Time: 4.51 Kangaroo Score: 0.205 Agility Score: 1.533
Hello? Is it Pierre-Louis you're looking for? I really like Pierre-Louis. He's quick (1.53 10-yard split), fast, powerful, and agile. When I watched him play, he more than met the expectations I had based on his measurable traits. He looked good in coverage. He was impressive on blitzes. He seemed more than capable of running people down, and made good tackles. People seem to be projecting that he will be taken in the 5th or 6th round, but I suspect he will go higher than that. I have to imagine that the relatively low projections people have for him are being influenced by his weight (232#), and the fact that he has missed 3 games in 2012 and 2011 with injuries, but this doesn't really bother me too much. While I can understand how people might not be thrilled with his weight, that seems like something that can be cured with a high-cheeseburger diet. I suspect he could become a rather special player, and be more positionally versatile than some might expect. He's a rather high priority target for Team Kangaroo, and I would go so far as to say that I greatly prefer him over the more highly touted Ryan Shazier. I would probably start to consider Pierre-Louis in the 3rd round.
Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU
40 Time: 4.64 Kangaroo Score: -0.338 Agility Score: 0.002
On paper, he's a fairly mediocre athlete, with fairly good statistical production. He didn't make much of an impression on me. In fact, he kind of put me to sleep. I suspect playing at LSU is the main reason he is getting mentioned as a prospect. People are projecting that he will go in the 4th to 5th round, but I would ignore him.
Morgan Breslin, OLB, USC
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: -0.662 Agility Score: ?
It's really unfortunate that we may never get to know Breslin's Agility Score, as I think he is a really interesting prospect. As a pass rusher, he was about as productive as anyone who will be available in this year's draft, though he was derailed by injuries this last year. His Kangaroo Score isn't quite what I would have hoped to see, but is still within the tolerable/average range for a linebacker. His speed is perfectly acceptable, though his 10-yard split of 1.59 seconds is even more promising. So, we are left wondering if he might have some sort of extreme agility that would make him a worthwhile target, and explain whether he can continue to do well. I loved watching him play, but without sufficient data to make an assessment, I would have to pass on him, which annoys me a bit.
Preston Brown, ILB, Louisville
40 Time: 4.86 Kangaroo Score: -0.143 Agility Score: 0.753
I don't want it to sound as if I am terribly excited about Brown, because I'm not. Still, if he were used as a 3-4 ILB, he might be somewhat useful, and I think this might minimize his shortcomings in terms of speed. He's a fairly nimble, hefty player (251#), who just doesn't appear to have much range. His college production was reasonably good, though nothing amazing. I probably wouldn't pursue him, but if he was there in the 6th round, I could see him producing acceptable results for the right team.
Carlos Fields, OLB, Winston-Salem State
40 Time: 4.50 Kangaroo Score: 0.378 Agility Score: 0.748
This is probably only going to cause me heartache, but I have to do it. If you're looking for a Paul Worrilow or Vincent Rey type of linebacker prospect, someone extremely cheap who might emerge as something special, this might be your guy. Yes, he played at a goofy school, but he seems to have been reasonably dominant while he was there, which is all you can ask from him. He showed production in almost every aspect of the game, making tackles for a loss, interceptions, and forced fumbles. From the little I have been able to see of him, he looks like he could be a terror. Athletically, he has the speed, power, and agility to be quite special. For some reason, that I can't explain, people seem to think that C.J. Mosley is a 1st round talent, and that Fields is a nobody who might not even get drafted. If I had to choose, I would go with Fields over Mosley every single time, and the fact that one will be much cheaper than the other just makes it an even simpler decision. Am I saying that I would take Fields in the 1st round? Hell no! I'm just dumpster diving here, and looking for value. There are no guarantees that Fields will turn out to be a good player, but if he is given an opportunity I think the odds are better than some might suspect. Unfortunately, I do have to worry about whether a team will give him much of a chance, and that his talent will be squandered. I would probably start to target Fields in the 5th or 6th round, though many are projecting that he will go even later, if he is even selected at all. I have to admit that I have a serious weakness for strange prospects like Fields.
Brock Coyle, ILB, Montana
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: -0.601 Agility Score: 1.160
While his measruables aren't quite as impressive as his Montana teammate Jordan Tripp, they are still rather good. Just like I said with Tripp, I would be concerned about the level of competition that Coyle faced, though there isn't much we can do about that. It is what it is. I can't claim to have watched very much of him, since Montana games are difficult to come across, but from the little I have witnessed, I think I preferred him to Tripp. He just struck me as the more intimidating, and aggressive player, who might also be a better tackler. Since Coyle is only projected to be a 7th-round-to-undrafted type of prospect, the price of admission is also lower. As a 'lottery ticket' pick at the very end of the draft, I think he could be rather interesting.
James Morris, ILB, Iowa
40 Time: 4.78 Kangaroo Score: -0.179 Agility Score: 0.553
He appears to be a good athlete with good statistical production. Like his teammate Christian Kirksey, I have to wonder how much he benefited from the talent that surrounded him at Iowa, but for a player that is projected to go in the 7th round, or go undrafted, this is less of a concern. While I wouldn't bet on him becoming a star, I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms a number of the more overrated prospects who will be taken ahead of him, if he is given a chance.
Howard Jones, OLB, Shepherd
40 Time: 4.60 Kangaroo Score: 0.339 Agility Score: -0.009
Jones is obviously an odd duck, coming from Shepherd College. Still, for someone who is only projected to be a late round pick, he has some upside. His 10-yard split (1.58 seconds) suggests that he has good quickness, and he has decent speed, but it is his above average Kangaroo Score (for someone his size, at least) that is probably his best attribute. It would suggest that he could be a decent pas rusher, as a 4-3 OLB, which was sort of his area of strength in college, where he accumulated a lot of TFLs. Outside of that, I think he would probably just be fairly average. He's not someone I would freak out about, but he might have some upside.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Paul Worrilow: Neglected Hen
Using a statistical approach to finding middle linebackers can be a
bit sketchy. With other positions you can kind of look at a players
physical traits, and see how they will compare to his opponent. How
does a particular wide receiver compare physically to the average
cornerback? How does this pass rusher compare to the average offensive
tackle? Over time, and enough plays, a player with a physical advantage
should produce results.
Middle linebackers, as well as safeties, are exceedingly peculiar in this way. They don't necessarily have one guy they will be matched up against. On one play an MLB could be chasing a tight end, on the next a running back or wide receiver. It's also not necessarily predetermined who the match up will be, but likely something that won't be known until the ball is snapped. So, decision making comes into the equation. That is something subjective, which everyone has to judge for themselves.
Still, certain baselines physical traits do exist, as well as a few somewhat reliable trends. For one, the majority of MLBs who achieve high levels of success are running sub 4.7 second forties, and often into the 4.5 range. Secondly, a player's agility score (based on the short shuttle and 3-cone drill) does appear to have a significant relationship to their ability to drop into coverage. Thirdly, just like OLBs and defensive ends, a good Kangaroo Score has a positive correlation to their likelihood of being a good blitzer. Nothing is set in stone, these are just the way things tend to go on average.
Being too rigid about what you are looking for here can be a problem. Not many MLBs are going to be great at everything. Some are good run stoppers. Some are good in coverage. Some are good blitzers. Some run stoppers are only good against inside runs, while some are better at getting to the sidelines. It's a mad world! The only ones worth paying serious attention to, in my opinion, are the guys who can pretty much do it all, but they almost always get drafted before the end of the second round.
Despite being undrafted, and being a Blue Hen, Paul Worrilow actually compares rather favorably to some of the better MLBs in the league. He's been picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Falcons, and despite the odds, I'm wagering (my ego, not my money) that people will start hearing his name in the next couple years. Here's how he compares to some of his peers.
Player 40 time Bench Kangaroo Score Agility Score
If the Kangaroo scores seem a bit lower in general, this is because these players are graded with all the OLBs and defensive ends who throw off the curve for the other MLBs. The average result for middle linebackers is probably closer to -0.800 (for now, use that as the baseline for judging these Kangaroo Scores), so all of these players would be above average for their position. The average Kangaroo Score for Pro Bowl or All Pro MLBs would be -0.362. I realize that this makes things look a bit odd, compared to a baseline of 0, but I'm sure you will survive. Scores are shown as the number of standard deviations above or below average that a player is for his position group.
What you will hopefully notice about Paul Worrilow is his shocking agility score that is 2.480 standard deviations above average for his peer group. He might have the highest agility score of any linebacker currently in the NFL. The closest current NFL players I can find are A.J. Hawk (1.891) or Von Miller (1.846). Worrilow also had one of the better 40 times in the 2013 linebacker class, as well as an excellent bench press of 30 repetitions.
So, what did he actually accomplish in his time at Delaware?
Tackles TFL Sacks Pass Def. Int. FF Fumbles Rec.
2012 107 9 3 2 - 1 -
2011 97 11 1 2 1 - 1
2010 113 9.5 2 3 - 2 2
2009 60 4 0 1 - - 2
Now, I'm not claiming that he is going to be the next Brian Urlacher or Ray Lewis. I'm just saying that he is a very athletic guy, who showed steady and solid production in college. The most interesting stat to me is his number of tackles for a loss. This is always one of my favorite stats, since I think it really says something about a player's aggressiveness to go after the play, rather than just letting it come to him. In this regard, and many others, Worrilow does as well or better than players like Arthur Brown, Manti Teo, or Kevin Minter who were all taken well ahead of him (since everybody was taken ahead of him).
Still, you might wonder if he actually looks like he can play...
He might disappear, never to be heard from again. In a league where so few middle linebackers are actually worth very much, I would find it to be a shame if Paul Worrilow didn't get a real shot. Teams seem more interested in recycling a mediocre talent like Rolando McClain. So how does Paul compare to the overrated McClain, who is being given yet another chance despite accomplishing nothing beyond being a former first round pick?
Player 40 time Bench Kangaroo Score Agility Score
Rolando McClain 4.68 24 -0.564 0.074
Yup, Rolando was pretty much just average across the board, but somehow people are surprised that he failed. Paul pretty much crushes him. However it all plays out, it's always fun to bet on a somewhat odd prospect like Worrilow, even if he does come from an a place that is just a puffed up sandbar.
Oh, one other thing I wanted to make a note of is the annual "he's an undersized linebacker" nonsense that the commentators spout about anyone under 6' 4" and 250 pounds. The average height and weight, of the 17 Pro Bowl and All Pro middle linebackers that I have numbers for, is 6' 1.2" and 239 pounds (Worrilow is 6'2" and 238#). People used to always say that Ray Lewis was undersized, when it seems he was very much the typical build for an MLB. So, maybe, people should shut up about this stuff.
Middle linebackers, as well as safeties, are exceedingly peculiar in this way. They don't necessarily have one guy they will be matched up against. On one play an MLB could be chasing a tight end, on the next a running back or wide receiver. It's also not necessarily predetermined who the match up will be, but likely something that won't be known until the ball is snapped. So, decision making comes into the equation. That is something subjective, which everyone has to judge for themselves.
Still, certain baselines physical traits do exist, as well as a few somewhat reliable trends. For one, the majority of MLBs who achieve high levels of success are running sub 4.7 second forties, and often into the 4.5 range. Secondly, a player's agility score (based on the short shuttle and 3-cone drill) does appear to have a significant relationship to their ability to drop into coverage. Thirdly, just like OLBs and defensive ends, a good Kangaroo Score has a positive correlation to their likelihood of being a good blitzer. Nothing is set in stone, these are just the way things tend to go on average.
Being too rigid about what you are looking for here can be a problem. Not many MLBs are going to be great at everything. Some are good run stoppers. Some are good in coverage. Some are good blitzers. Some run stoppers are only good against inside runs, while some are better at getting to the sidelines. It's a mad world! The only ones worth paying serious attention to, in my opinion, are the guys who can pretty much do it all, but they almost always get drafted before the end of the second round.
Despite being undrafted, and being a Blue Hen, Paul Worrilow actually compares rather favorably to some of the better MLBs in the league. He's been picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Falcons, and despite the odds, I'm wagering (my ego, not my money) that people will start hearing his name in the next couple years. Here's how he compares to some of his peers.
Player 40 time Bench Kangaroo Score Agility Score
| Paul Worrilow | 4.59 | 30 | -0.302 | 2.480 |
| Derrick Johnson | 4.52 | N/A | 0.070 | 1.223 |
| Brian Urlacher | 4.59 | 27 | 0.458 | 1.051 |
| Brian Cushing | 4.64 | 30 | -0.219 | 1.133 |
| Patrick Willis | 4.51 | 22 | 0.217 | -0.282 |
| DeMeco Ryans | 4.65 | 23 | 0.463 | 0.569 |
| Lawrence Timmons | 4.66 | 25 | -0.481 | 0.702 |
| Lavonte David | 4.57 | 19 | -0.547 | 0.285 |
| Luke Kuechly | 4.58 | 27 | 0.303 | 1.256 |
| Sean Lee | 4.72 | 24 | -0.219 | 1.203 |
| Jonathan Vilma | 4.61 | 23 | -0.376 | 1.516 |
| Paul Posluszny | 4.70 | 22 | -0.406 | 0.996 |
If the Kangaroo scores seem a bit lower in general, this is because these players are graded with all the OLBs and defensive ends who throw off the curve for the other MLBs. The average result for middle linebackers is probably closer to -0.800 (for now, use that as the baseline for judging these Kangaroo Scores), so all of these players would be above average for their position. The average Kangaroo Score for Pro Bowl or All Pro MLBs would be -0.362. I realize that this makes things look a bit odd, compared to a baseline of 0, but I'm sure you will survive. Scores are shown as the number of standard deviations above or below average that a player is for his position group.
What you will hopefully notice about Paul Worrilow is his shocking agility score that is 2.480 standard deviations above average for his peer group. He might have the highest agility score of any linebacker currently in the NFL. The closest current NFL players I can find are A.J. Hawk (1.891) or Von Miller (1.846). Worrilow also had one of the better 40 times in the 2013 linebacker class, as well as an excellent bench press of 30 repetitions.
So, what did he actually accomplish in his time at Delaware?
Tackles TFL Sacks Pass Def. Int. FF Fumbles Rec.
2012 107 9 3 2 - 1 -
2011 97 11 1 2 1 - 1
2010 113 9.5 2 3 - 2 2
2009 60 4 0 1 - - 2
Now, I'm not claiming that he is going to be the next Brian Urlacher or Ray Lewis. I'm just saying that he is a very athletic guy, who showed steady and solid production in college. The most interesting stat to me is his number of tackles for a loss. This is always one of my favorite stats, since I think it really says something about a player's aggressiveness to go after the play, rather than just letting it come to him. In this regard, and many others, Worrilow does as well or better than players like Arthur Brown, Manti Teo, or Kevin Minter who were all taken well ahead of him (since everybody was taken ahead of him).
Still, you might wonder if he actually looks like he can play...
He might disappear, never to be heard from again. In a league where so few middle linebackers are actually worth very much, I would find it to be a shame if Paul Worrilow didn't get a real shot. Teams seem more interested in recycling a mediocre talent like Rolando McClain. So how does Paul compare to the overrated McClain, who is being given yet another chance despite accomplishing nothing beyond being a former first round pick?
Player 40 time Bench Kangaroo Score Agility Score
Rolando McClain 4.68 24 -0.564 0.074
Yup, Rolando was pretty much just average across the board, but somehow people are surprised that he failed. Paul pretty much crushes him. However it all plays out, it's always fun to bet on a somewhat odd prospect like Worrilow, even if he does come from an a place that is just a puffed up sandbar.
Oh, one other thing I wanted to make a note of is the annual "he's an undersized linebacker" nonsense that the commentators spout about anyone under 6' 4" and 250 pounds. The average height and weight, of the 17 Pro Bowl and All Pro middle linebackers that I have numbers for, is 6' 1.2" and 239 pounds (Worrilow is 6'2" and 238#). People used to always say that Ray Lewis was undersized, when it seems he was very much the typical build for an MLB. So, maybe, people should shut up about this stuff.
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