Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Last Minute Thoughts

I've been sorting through the spreadsheets for the different position groups, and trying to make some last minute updates.  This year seems to have been worse than any I can remember as far as data becoming available to the public.  Regardless, I'm slowly making minor mental adjustments to where I suspect certain player will be taken, and where Team Kangaroo will have to pounce in order to get the players we want.

Unfortunately, some of the players that I thought were very interesting, at least early on in this process, seem to be moving up peoples' draft boards, past the point where I would probably take them.  Phillip Gaines?  Probably not a huge bargain anymore.  Cody Latimer?  Getting a bit too expensive.  Deone Buchanon?  I'm still interested, but questioning the value.  Of course, I'm mostly basing my speculation on how high certain players will be taken, by how many teams have invited them in for visits, so who knows what will really happen?

On the other hand, some prospects seem to be getting ignored a fair bit.  There's been hardly any talk about Joel BitonioKareem Martin rarely seems to get mentioned, and seems to have had few visits with teams.  Maybe he will slip a bit, and fall into my clutches?  Kevin Pierre-Louis, similarly seems to have attracted minimal attention, and might be available even later than I anticipated, allowing me to wait a bit.  Then there is the weird situation with Garrett Scott, who is easily the most physically gifted offensive lineman in the entire draft.  I was completely unaware of him until a few days ago, and information is rather spotty, but he certainly seems intriguing.  Still I can find very little information on him, which makes me wonder what the real story is here.

The more I look at the potential outcomes of this draft, the more I suspect that I will probably pass on all of the wide receivers this year.  It's not that I don't like them.  For the most part, I rather like the top receiving prospects, even if I think most of them have certain flaws which might limit their upside.  In the end, I just don't think any of them are going to be available late enough to present a great situation to swoop in and get a great deal on any of them.  Instead, I get the feeling that Team Kangaroo will be going a bit heavy on somewhat peculiar defensive players this year.

As for my nemesis, the Ravens, I'm really hoping they do something obscenely stupid with their top picks.  It would just make my job easier.  The best way to make it look like I know what I'm talking about, is for Ozzie Newsome to take a dive (Please take Kelvin Benjamin!).  Based upon the lists of players that they have supposedly met with, the likelihood of this happening is probably very high.  The possibility of their trading back a few slots, strikes me as pretty strong, and probably a great move for them, as well as for Team Kangaroo. 

Among the players that the Ravens have met with, there are a handful that really seem to fit the mold of a Ravens' pick, for better or for worse.  Mike Davis (WR from Texas), seems like a classic Ozzie pick, in the sense that he measures up as a mediocrity in almost every statistical/athletic category, while possessing a stat sheet that superficially appears more impressive than it really is.  The Ravens love picking this type of receiver in the mid rounds (Hello, Tandon Doss!), and typically have gotten terrible results from such decisions.  Chris Borland (LB from Wisconsin) seems to have gotten a lot of attention from the organization.  Personally, I don't think the upside is that high with Borland, but I wouldn't make fun of such a pick.  Borland seems like a lot of the linebackers that the Ravens have taken in the past, and squeezed good mileage out of.  Gabe Jackson (guard from Mississippi State) fits the mauling behemoth type of linemen that Ozzie seems to crave, though I think he will probably be taken too high for the Ravens to get him.  Finally, we have Logan Thomas (QB from Virginia Tech).  Personally I don't see the appeal in taking Thomas, but would be somewhat shocked if the Ravens didn't strongly pursue him anyway.  The team has a rather stubborn streak when it comes to drafting athletic QBs, with questionable passing skills (Troy Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Harris, Kyle Boller), and they seem to have paid greater attention to Thomas than virtually any other team.  I foresee a wasted draft pick here.  I might also put a five dollar bet on them going after Terrance West (RB from Towson) who I am also feeling a bit pessimistic about.

Weird things will happen.  Chaos will reign.  How it will all play out, nobody really knows.  I just plan on being in a semi-vegetative state for the next few days.

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