Kangaroo Court: The 2015 Wide Receivers

When the computer looked at the wide receiver prospects in 2013, it had some serious doubts about the majority of the top selections.  Then, in 2014, the computer generally agreed with the mainstream view that the top wide receiver prospects were a rather interesting group of players.  This year, Reilly and I were actually somewhat tempted to not to make this list at all.  There were just so many gray areas to so many of this year's top prospects, that we really started to feel a bit uncomfortable.

It's not that this year's prospects are bad.  They aren't.  In fact, there were more wide receivers who passed through our filters this year, than in any year in recent memory.  Despite that, it was hard to say that there were many wide receivers who we would confidently argue were clearly destined for greatness.  Instead, we found a lot of players whom the computer just projected to be 'okay'...maybe.  With the expectations for where a lot of these players are supposedly going to be selected, this led us to feel a bit more worried about the potential value of this year's crop.  In the end, someone is almost certainly going to emerge as a future star, but this just feels like a draft class where a lot of the top prospects might be more likely to become good number 2 receivers, rather than the terrifying monsters that their draft status might lead you to hope they would be.  More than we would normally like to see, this group feels much more vulnerable to the unknown factor of what team they end up playing for.

So, as we have done before, we will contemplate every wide receiver prospect who managed to produce both a Stat Score and an Athletic Score, that was no worse than -0.100 standard deviations below average.  The receivers will be divided into two groups, one for players that are over 200# (the 'Big' receivers), and those who are under 210# (the 'Small' receivers).  For players who fit in both groups (players who are between 200 and 210 pounds), we'll test them in both groups to see where they might fit best.  For 'Small' receivers, the computer puts more of an emphasis on speed and agility when forming their Athletic Score, and their Stat Scores is more demanding of multiple seasons of solid statistical production.  For the 'Big' receivers, the computer places more of an emphasis on power (the dreaded Kangaroo Score), and their Stat Score is somewhat less demanding.  We'll also filter out any 'Big' receivers with 40-times below 4.60 seconds, as well as filtering out 'Small' receivers with 40-times below 4.50 seconds.

Big Receiver	Stat Score	Athletics Score
Devante Davis	-0.013	0.397
Jaelen Strong	0.426	1.192
Kevin White	0.201	0.584
Breshad Perriman	0.481	0.773
Deontay Greenberry	0.166	0.198
DeVante Parker	0.191	0.267
Jordan Taylor	-0.083	-0.084
Da'Ron Brown	-0.070	0.156
R.J. Harris	0.966	0.098
Geremy Davis	0.113	0.616

Small Receiver	Stat Score	Athletics Score
Tre McBride	0.415	0.628
Tyrell Williams	0.484	0.504
DeAndre Carter	0.726	0.518
Amari Cooper	0.462	0.517
Nelson Agholor	0.428	-0.023

Just to be clear, these filters are only intended to identify the players that the computer thinks have the best chance of becoming 'average' NFL receivers.  Our definition of average is a player that can produce 35 receiving yards per game played over the course of their career (or a modest 560 receiving yards over 16 games), so our standards are fairly low.  If we raised our standards to players who averaged at least 45 receiving yards per games played, it really becomes quite rare for a player not to pass both of these statistical hurdles.  We wouldn't take the scores listed above too seriously, as they are really scores that are built upon many smaller scores, which frequently matter even more.  This is just how we start the weeding out process, to determine which players we want to focus our attention on.  In reality, we always end up having to veto some of the computer's recommendations for various reasons, which we will try to describe as we go along.  Unfortunately, our own worthless and subjective opinion does come into play a bit more on these vetoes.

In last year's post, we also mentioned that we were intending to make some changes to our filters, that we hoped would improve the accuracy of our hunches.  Mainly, we wanted to make agility measurements a more significant factor for Big receivers.  We've also been thinking about tweaking some of the numbers for small receivers, because we tend to be a bit harsh with with those guys.  Unfortunately, umm, we kind of forgot to get around to doing this.  So, at least for this year, our filters have largely remained the same, though I suppose that gives us something to do in the upcoming season.

There is one other thing that we should probably mention.  While it doesn't get discussed very much, there is a wide receiver in this draft class who is named Jazz King, who played at Marshall.  The computer doesn't find him very appealing, but I think a good argument can be made that this is the type of name that merits a 1st round pick.  I mean, if I can pick horses for the Preakness based on their names, I don't see why that wouldn't work for wide receivers.  It's worth giving this some thought.

Because of the way that data slowly becomes available, I will continue to modify and adjust some of these results as new information becomes available.


Kevin White, WR, West Virginia  Ht: 6' 2.5"  Wt: 215
40 Time: 4.35  Kangaroo Score: 0.456  Agility Score: 0.267
It seems pretty obvious that White will be gone long before Team Kangaroo would ever need to seriously contemplate selecting him.  I'm not sure that this really bothers me.  I think it's going to be a common theme this year, for me to say that a "player is nice, but we're not necessarily willing to pay the price".  Of all the different athletic traits that a wide receiver can possess, raw speed probably interests me the least.  I generally prefer explosiveness/power or exceptional agility, since I figure that will get a player open more frequently than simply trying to outrun his opponent.  Now, Kevin White doesn't do badly in those areas, but he isn't exactly an unusual prospect either.  He struck us as a fairly tough and dependable wide receiver, though he often seems to play more like a running back.  It was his effort after the catch which seemed like his strongest attribute.  I am obligated (by our Dark Lord Hard Drive) to say that he will probably become a respectable receiver, but I don't know if I really believe that his ceiling is high enough to merit the top 10 pick he is supposedly going to be.

Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama  Ht: 6' 0.75"  Wt: 209
40 Time: 4.42  Kangaroo Score: -0.200  Agility Score: 1.349
I seem to run across a lot of people who compare Amari Cooper to A.J. Green.  To some extent, I get this, since neither player really has amazing lower body power, but I'm still not sure if this is a great comparison.  Really, I find it hard to come up with someone who is in quite the same athletic mold as Cooper.  In some ways, he actually compares better to players like Odell Beckham or Cecil Shorts, who although they are somewhat smaller, both possess a similar sort of rare agility, and just average lower body power..  While Cooper probably isn't as explosive as Beckham, his 10" mitts appear to be more dependable than those of Shorts.  Among the somewhat larger receivers, I really can't find a player who possesses similar athletic traits, as well as the sort of statistical production that Cooper brings to the table.  This both worries me, and fascinates me.  This is why running Cooper through the computer at his pro day weight of 209 pounds matters, as it allows him to be judged against the Small receivers.  Last year, we discussed how Jordan Matthews was sort of like a small receiver in a big receivers body, and Cooper seems like a much more extreme example of the same idea.  While I have no doubt that Cooper's agility can help him get separation from some of the league's average corners, I do have to wonder what will happen when people try to jam him.  For some reason, his college opponents almost always gave him a fairly clean release which seems insanely stupid, at least in retrospect.  Regardless of all that nitpicking, yes, I like Amari Cooper, but I do have some doubts about whether he is the receiver that some people present him as.

DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville  Ht: 6' 2.5"  Wt: 209
40 Time: 4.45  Kangaroo Score:  0.422  Agility Score: ?
Just to be clear, Parker's Stat Score would be significantly higher if we adjusted it for the games he missed due to injury.  It just wasn't necessary to do this, as he met our marks despite that handicap.  As far as his athletic ability is concerned, he seems like a nice all around athlete, though he didn't really excel in any particular area.  He has slightly above average power, but not so much that I would view him as a real threat to abuse anyone.  His speed and quickness are good.  We can only speculate about what his Agility Score would be, though I tend to place much less weight on this for larger receivers.  He has solid hands, and is quite good at going up for the ball, but I wouldn't say that he creates a ton of separation, or has unusual explosiveness.  While we are obviously missing some data, and he only played 6 games in his final season, there do seem to be some interesting reasons to suspect that Parker might have just been starting to emerge as one of the more interesting wide receivers in this draft class.  In those 6 games, there was only one game in which he was responsible for less than 31% of his team's total offense, which is astounding.  Or, if you want to think about in terms of his share of the team's receiving yards, he never dipped below 36% in any single game.  In total, he wound up with 33.7% of his team's total offense, and 51.1% of the team's receiving yards during this period, which are truly ridiculous results.  While his results in prior seasons were significantly less exceptional, it's entirely possible that Parker was just starting to hit his stride.  Without his agility results, we might project that his upside could be similar to what we see with DeAndre Hopkins, while his downside might be similar to Michael Jenkins.  We probably lean more towards the former, rather than the latter of these two outcomes.  Where Parker winds up playing will undoubtedly have a huge influence over his eventual production, but in the end we find it hard to imagine that he won't become a good number 2 receiver, at the very least.  He strikes me as one of the more interesting and enigmatic wide receiver prospects, at least among the ones projected to be taken in the 1st round.

Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona St.  Ht: 6' 2.3"  Wt: 217
40 Time: 4.44  Kangaroo Score:  1.606  Agility Score: -0.915
Jaelen Strong might end up being an interesting test case for how much agility matters for a big powerful receiver.  Normally, we don't worry about this too much, and just look to see if a player's strengths outweigh their potential weaknesses.  With Strong, we really have to wonder if having a cutoff for certain results might make more sense.  The interesting thing about his agility results is the somewhat lopsided nature of his scores.  In the short shuttle, he produced a result that was respectably average, and 0.176 standard deviations above average.  In the 3-cone drill, which we normally associate with upper body flexibility, Strong's result was an abysmal -2.008 standard deviations below average.  It's very peculiar.  Was it an anomaly, or is it something to be concerned with?  While his overall results bear some similarity to a player like Dez Bryant, Dez's career is a bit of an outlier when it comes to the upside potential of large receivers with horrific agility results.  Another possible comparison, and perhaps a more likely outcome, is that of Jonathan Badlwin.  Baldwin actually wasn't quite as stiff as Strong, but is still rather similar, in a general sort of way.  Also, while we often hear people describing Strong's hands as being exceptionally reliable, his somewhat small 9" mitts only struck me as being a bit average.  The most disturbing thing we saw with Strong, was probably the game against Oregon State, where he faced off against the 5'10" cornerback Steven Nelson.  Strong seemed to have a surprisingly difficult time dealing with somebody he really should have been able to step on like a bug.  The whole reason we lust after big powerful receivers, is that we expect them to fling players like this out of their way, yet Strong didn't appear terribly inclined to do so, which somewhat negates his best selling point.  While we think Strong has some jump ball potential, and can sometimes be dangerous after the catch, we have a hard time imagining him becoming the terror we might be hoping for.  Instead, we suspect he might just become a fairly average receiver, with some red zone potential.  The main reasons we don't want to entirely write him off, is that he is still one of the younger receivers in this class, and if he could learn to direct his power towards violence, he might still turn out to be something interesting.

Nelson Agholar, WR, USC.  Ht:  6'   Wt: 198
40 Time: 4.42  Kangaroo Score:  -0.102  Agility Score: -0.223
In many ways, the computer views Agholar as a slightly faster, but potentially less nimble, version of his former teammate Marqise Lee, for whom we also had somewhat modest expectations.  The main thing Agholar has going for him is his speed, where his 2nd Gear Score of 0.17 suggests that his deep speed is significantly more impressive than his already very good 40 time might suggest.  The way he accelerates from the 10 yard split, to the 20 yard split, and finally to the 40 yard mark, almost qualifies him for our Midget class of speedy receivers, where you find people like DeSean Jackson and T.Y. Hilton, but he doesn't quite fit there.  Most Midget type receivers tend to be incredibly small and lightly built players (hence the politically incorrect name for them), so it's fairly odd that Agholar was even able to come close to this group when it came to how he accelerates.  Personally, we thought Agholar was a fairly respectable receiver, even if he isn't quite as nimble as we would like him to be, and he probably has some real value as a deep threat and kick returner.  We also might even commit ourselves to saying that we somewhat prefer him to Marqise Lee.  Despite that, we don't tend to place a lot of value on small speedy receivers, so even at his generally projected cost of a 2nd round pick, I'm not sure if we would pursue him.

Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF.  Ht: 6' 2"  Wt: 212
40 Time: 4.27  Kangaroo Score:  0.636  Agility Score: ?
Do you like Kevin White, but think you need someone much faster and possibly less dependable?  Honestly, I don't think his hands are nearly as bad as some people say, but he can be a bit erratic and unpredictable about dropping the ball.  While his Kangaroo Score isn't much more impressive than many of the other top rated receivers, his score from the broad jump produced a Kangaroo Score that was 0.962 standard deviations above average, and suggests slightly more promising potential than some of these other players.  In the end, I have to admit that I think he has legitimate number 1 wide receiver potential, but he also might have an equally good chance of being an enormous disappointment.  When you consider how much of his production came against rather mediocre competition, how many games he seemed to disappear in, and the possibility that he might be a bit of a dim bulb, you really would need balls of steel to select him with as high of a pick as some team is probably going to use.  It seems safer just to stand back, and let some other team take the gamble on this one.


Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary  Ht: 6' 0.25"  Wt: 210
40 Time: 4.41  Kangaroo Score:  0.595  Agility Score: 0.398
This is where we come to what the computer thinks might be the sweet spot in the draft.  Do we have some concerns with the idea of drafting an FCS wide receiver who has never surpassed the 900 receiving yards mark even once in the past three years?  Sure we do.  At the same time, if McBride continues to be viewed as just a 3rd round prospect, his potential value aligns with the cost of acquiring him much better than it does with some of the more highly touted prospects.  While his Agility Score isn't remarkable, it is somewhat weighed down by his very average 3-cone drill, but his short shuttle result was 0.956 standard deviations above average.  As far as statistical production, things become a bit murkier.  On the surface, his stat sheet isn't as flashy as many of these other players.  Still, within the context of his team's offense, he carried a respectable share of his team's load, and did so consistently for three years.  When his team faced more challenging competition, like Virginia Tech, West Virginia, or Maryland, it didn't appear to slow McBride down in the least, as he continued to successfully produce positive results.  Based on what we have seen of him, McBride appears to be a very competent player, with above average hands, and from a purely subjective standpoint we rather enjoyed watching him play.  If you watch McBride play, and then compare him to some of the more highly rated prospect, it's hard to say that he isn't as impressive as at least half of them.  Maybe he will become a star, maybe he won't.  Maybe he'll just become a good player.  Either way, I would say that McBride could very easily end up being at least 80% of the player that some of the 1st rounders are, for about half the price.  We would start to consider McBride in the area of the 3rd round.

DeAndre Carter, WR, Sacremento St.  Ht: 5' 8.5"  Wt: 192
40 Time: 4.44  Kangaroo Score:  -0.075  Agility Score:  2.194
Small speedy receivers with some degree of shiftiness aren't exactly in short supply.  There are tons of them in this draft, just like every year, and each one has his fair share of supporters.  You have Tyler Lockett, Kenny Bell, Devin Smith, Rashad Greene, Nelson Agholar, Stefon Diggs, Phillip Dorsett, etc.. Each of these players has his own list of pros and cons.  Some were highly productive players in college.  Some are highly gifted athletes.  Still, there are very few who checked off both of these boxes.  While we have our own subjective opinions and preferences regarding these players, and wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them end up performing quite well in the NFL, we suspect that the majority of them will end up becoming disappointments.  Even among the ones who do succeed, you also have to consider the potentially limited payoff that these sorts of receivers tend to offer.  So, yes, while somebody will end up being correct in their fanatical support for one of these players, the odds still aren't terribly favorable.  With DeAndre Carter, on the other hand, the computer feels a bit more optimistic.  Athletically, he passes through our filters quite comfortably.  Despite his smaller size, he surprisingly appears to have at least average lower body power.  He also possesses good, but not necessarily terrifying speed.  His 10 yard split of 1.45 seconds, and 2nd Gear Score of 0.01, suggest he is probably quicker than he is fast, though in now way are we saying that he is slow.  Max Mulitz and I have sort of discussed the possibility that Carter might be more of an Edelman/Welker type of receiver, rather than a T.Y. Hilton.  Perhaps more importantly, Carter also possesses excellent agility, which should not only assist him in getting open, but also help him to avoid get beaten to a pulp.  When it comes to his statistical production, the computer also gives him high marks, even if he competed at a lower level of competition, because he did appear to dominate his opponents quite convincingly.  Considering that the cost of acquiring him will probably be no more than a 6th round pick, and he may not get drafted at all, there is really very little risk involved here.

Jordan Taylor, WR, Rice  Ht: 6' 4.5"  Wt: 209
40 Time: 4.52  Kangaroo Score:  0.317  Agility Score: -0.302
Like a couple of other players on this list, Taylor just sneaks past our filters, without really excelling in any one area.  While there's nothing shocking about Taylor when examining his athletic traits, there is something we find a bit worrisome.  His BMI results are -1.342 standard deviations below average, which puts him in a class of players where we really start to worry about their risk of injury.  Somebody might want to start feeding this guy some cheeseburgers.  Still, we're not his parents, and his physical welfare isn't going to keep us up at night.  While we wouldn't say that Taylor is an exceptional prospect, or somebody that we would seriously pursue, we do think he could be an interesting red zone threat because of his height, and he does appear to have some rather exceptional and reliable hands that could serve him well in this role.

Geremy Davis, WR, Connecticut  Ht: 6' 2.3"  Wt: 216
40 Time: 4.48*  Kangaroo Score:  0.720  Agility Score:  0.272
What should you do if you like Tre McBride, but feel like being a cheapskate?  Well, you could set your sights on Geremy Davis.  The two receivers really have a lot in common.  They're both somewhat underrated and comparable athletes.  They both played in rather terrible offenses, with horrible quarterbacks, which probably reduced their statistical production.  They also both seem to have rather reliable and consistent hands.  Unfortunately, Davis doesn't seem to be as fast or explosive as McBride, and he is also a full year older.  We probably wouldn't expect Davis to become a terrifying number one receiver, but we wouldn't be surprised in the least if he becomes a solid and respectable secondary target.  We currently seem to see people projecting that Davis will only be a 7th round to UDFA type of prospect, but we think Davis could be an interesting target, maybe starting somewhere around the 5th or 6th round.

Now, this is the point where the computer starts spitting out names of players for whom we have significantly less confidence.  So, bear that in mind, as you continue reading.

Devante Davis, WR, UNLV  Ht: 6' 2.75"  Wt: 220
40 Time: 4.57  Kangaroo Score:  0.577*  Agility Score: -0.471
While his Stat Score appears to be very unimpressive, it starts to look much better when we adjust things to account for the games he missed due to injury.  Still, he manages to get past our minimal requirements even without this adjustment, so we'll ignore this.  While his Kangaroo Score suggests that he has somewhat above average lower body power, his result is a bit less impressive than you would expect for a player of his size.  His agility results are a bit below average, but not unusual for a bigger bodied receiver.  When it comes to speed, his 2nd Gear Score of 0.02 suggests that his fairly pedestrian 40 time is an accurate gauge of his deep speed, and that he probably isn't a significant deep threat.  Overall, he seems like a fairly commonplace possession receiver.  His hands generally appear to be reliable, and we certainly don't think he is a bad player, but in the end we probably wouldn't feel terribly interested in spending a draft pick on him.

Deontay Greenberry, WR, Houston  Ht: 6' 1"  Wt: 211
40 Time: 4.52  Kangaroo Score:  0.044  Agility Score: -1.046
We felt very tempted to cut this player from our list.  Once again, you can see how the computer largely disregards agility for Big receivers.  Unfortunately, Greenberry also lacks the sort of lower body power and explosiveness that we are normally looking for in these types of prospects.  It's really a bit of a mystery to us how he was so productive in college, though playing in a spread offense against fairly mediocre opponents probably helped quite a bit.  He struck us as wildly inconsistent, making a spectacular catch one moment, and then disappearing for long stretches, or simply dropping a pass he should have caught.  If it wasn't for his productive 2013 season, we probably wouldn't be paying attention to him at all, and even in that year his production was just good, and not really amazing.

Da'Ron Brown, WR, Northern Illinois  Ht: 6'  Wt: 205
40 Time: 4.54  Kangaroo Score:  0.134  Agility Score:  0.078
Because of where he falls when it comes to weight, Brown could have been treated as either a Big or a Small receiver.  Unfortunately, his statistical production didn't pass the more difficult filters of the Small receiver group.  As a Big receiver, he faces a different sort of problem, which is that he appears to lack anything more than just average athletic traits, especially when it comes to his lower body power.  He kind of squeaks by, despite falling somewhere in between our mold for either a Big receiver or a Small one.  Still, in the little we have seen of him, he actually appears to be a surprisingly respectable and reliable target.  Considering his lower level of competition, and shortage of exceptional traits that we crave, we probably wouldn't pursue Brown in the draft, but that's probably not a huge problem, since most people seem to expect him to go undrafted.  That he will be 24 years old in September, also sort of weighs his stock down a fair bit.  Despite that, as an UDFA we could definitely have some interest in DaRon Brown.

R.J. Harris, WR, New Hampshire  Ht: 6'  Wt: 200
40 Time: 4.51  Kangaroo Score:  0.206  Agility Score:  -0.706
Harris kind of sneaks through the cracks, on some odd technicalities.  Because of his average size, you would think he would be compared to smaller receivers, but he doesn't pass the computer's filter here because of his low agility (though there were some wild inconsistencies with his results here) and mediocre speed.  Oddly, the computer finds him to be a more interesting, but not thrilling prospect, as a Big receiver.  His speed is adequate for that group, and he does have some explosiveness and average power.  If he weighed just one pound less, we wouldn't even be discussing him.  Harris has squeezed through a weird loophole.  While his level of competition is an obvious concern, he did perform at a fairly dominant level, and appeared to have rather good hands.  Still, I don't really see the sort of exceptional athletic traits that are likely to let him get much separation in the NFL, so I would probably ignore him.

Tyrell Williams, WR, Western Oregon  Ht: 6'3.5"  Wt: 204
40 Time: 4.43  Kangaroo Score:  0.701  Agility Score:  0.602
First of all, don't confuse him with Tyler Williams, the wide receiver from Akron.  Williams is just somebody we view as a bit of a lottery ticket type of player.  Athletically, he is a pretty interesting specimen, with fairly impressive speed, power and agility.  His main physical drawback is his low BMI result (-1.366 standard deviations below average), which puts him into a group of players where injury becomes a much greater concern.  This is another candidate for the all cheeseburger diet plan.  As for his production, well, he technically hits our marks, but it's a bit more complicated in his case.  First of all, he was playing against a much lower level of competition, so we really would have preferred to see him dominate his opponents a bit more than he did.  He was also operating out of a spread offense, that typically allowed him some ridiculous opportunities to just blow past people.  These are factors for which the computer doesn't make adjustments.  We would also say that his hands would probably be described as 'adequate' at best, which might explain why he wasn't a more dominant college player.  We just find him to be mildly interesting as a potential UDFA.


One of the frustrating issues that we run into, is that there are occasionally players who we really like, that the computer simply won't allow us to pick.  This is highly annoying, but in the end we think sticking to a rigid system should work out over the long run.

One example of this sort of restriction is with the Tyler Lockett, from Kansas State.  Here we have a highly entertaining and productive player, that we actually want to draft, but the computer says that we aren't allowed to.  Lockett has respectable speed, good agility, and was highly productive, all of which is very promising.  The problem comes with his lack of mass, since he is only 182 pounds.  When a player is that light, the computer starts to become very demanding of a prospect to demonstrate truly remarkable speed and agility, to compensate for their potential lack of power.  While Lockett's overall results were good, they were just a tad short of where they needed to be in order for us to be allowed to select him.  The computer was also a bit disturbed by Lockett's rather small 8.375" hands.  I really wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being one of the players who exceeds the computer's expectations.

Max Mulitz would probably kill me if I also didn't make some mention of his adopted son Bud Sasser, from Missouri.  Athletically, Sasser passes all of our filters to qualify as a rather interesting Big receiver.  The problem is that Sasser just didn't produce enough prior to 2014 to qualify when it came to his Stat Score, though he didn't miss the mark by much.  It's entirely possible that is the result of a failing on the part of his coaches, and they just didn't recognize his talent.  It's also possible that an older and more physically mature Sasser was just beating up on younger less fully developed opponents in his final year in college.  It's hard to say.  The interesting thing about Sasser is that the computer does think there is a potentially good argument that he might be a better prospect than his former teammate the troubled Dorial Green-Beckham, who is likely to be selected in the 2nd round.  Considering the possibility that Sasser will probably only be a late round pick, he could be an interesting player to pick up.

Last, but not least, we have Cameron Meredith, from Illinois State.  Athletically, he might be one of the more interesting prospects on this list, and almost everything we would want to see in a 6'3" and 207 pound receiver.  He has perfectly good speed, with a 40 time of 4.49 seconds.  He has some fairly good power, with a 0.775 Kangaroo Score.  He also has pretty good agility, with a result of 0.853.  The problem is that his statistical production just doesn't meet our standards, though this might have something to do with the fact that he is a quarterback who was converted to the wide receiver position just 2 seasons ago.  Regardless, in the little we were able to see of him, we actually thought he looked surprisingly good, and made some rather impressive plays.  It seems unlikely that anyone is going to draft him, but he really might be one of our favorite UDFA prospects

Kangaroo Court: The 2014 Wide Receivers

This year's list of wide receiver prospects probably isn't going to be very interesting to most people.  Last year, the list of receivers that the computer thought were interesting differed rather greatly from the players that were actually taken highly.  This time, the computer is largely in agreement with the general consensus, at least for the most part.  Perhaps the only interesting thing about this years' list, is the fact that the computer seems to have largely identified most of the prospects who are projected to be taken in the first few rounds, without ever actually seeing them play.

Among the receivers who were taken in the first 2 rounds last year, only DeAndre Hopkins actually met the computer's standards for being a probable success.  Even here, I think the computer would have had some minor issues with taking Hopkins in the first round, but that is just quibbling over value at this point.  Still, except for Keenan Allen, for whom we didn't have the necessary data to make an evaluation, Hopkins has so far been the most productive receiver of the 2013 class.  The accomplishments of Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson are still lagging a bit behind, and largely hanging on their production as punt/kick returners, which is outside of the scope of what we are really looking for here.

As for some of the other players that the computer liked, we are still waiting to see what will happen.  Since they tended to be later draft picks, it could take some time, and maybe their opportunity will never come.  Getting an opportunity obviously matters a lot.  Ryan Spadola, who was the definition of an oddball prospect (and one of the computer's highest ranked small receivers), is a perfect example.  In the 2013 preseason, he appears to have had the 2nd most receiving yards among all receivers (213 yards on 13 receptions), even including veterans.  The next closest rookie was 43 yards behind him.  Not bad for an undrafted kid from Lehigh University, though evidently not good enough for the Jets.  They cut him, after throwing one regular season pass to him in a rain storm (which he dropped), because they felt they were all set at the receiver position with Stephen Hill.  Don't ask me to explain what they were thinking, because I have no idea.  All I'm trying to say is that opportunities don't always come to the players that might deserve them.

Since I only got around to mentioning receivers after the draft had already happened last year, I didn't really discuss the prospects very much.  The time for that sort of thing had already passed.  This year will be different in some ways.

I should also mention that, since this is an ongoing process that I am trying to gradually improve, I have contemplated making some changes to how the computer looks at wide receiver prospects.  Most of the changes I want to eventually make will relate to the "Big' receivers, where I am contemplating making the Agility Score a stronger factor.  I've also been thinking about altering the way that the computer looks at the issue of speed, with more attention paid to the the 10-yard splits.  Still, these issues are still in the pipeline, and there's a bit of fiddling left to do.  For this year, the game will superficially remain the same as before, as will the scores for the players.

As we did last year, I will list every wide receiver prospect who managed to produce both a Stat Score and an Athletic Score, that was no worse than -0.100 standard deviations below average.  The receivers will be divided into two groups, one for players that are over 200# (the 'Big' receivers), and those who are under 210# (the 'Small' receivers).  For players who fit in both groups (players who are between 200 and 210 pounds), I'll test them in both groups to see where they might fit best.  For 'Small' receivers, the computer puts more of an emphasis on speed and agility when forming their Athletic Score, and their Stat Scores is more demanding of multiple seasons of solid statistical production.  For the 'Big' receivers, the computer places more of an emphasis on power (the dreaded Kangaroo Score), and their Stat Score is somewhat less demanding.  I'll also filter out any 'Big' receivers with 40-times below 4.60 seconds, as well as filtering out 'Small' receivers with 40-times below 4.50 seconds.

Big Receivers

NAME	Stat Score	Athletic Score
Mike Evans	0.470	1.143
Donte Moncrief	0.019	1.532
Jeff Janis	1.897	1.014
Davante Adams	1.086	0.860
Jordan Matthews	1.444	0.239
Sammy Watkins	0.313	0.527
Allen Robinson	0.941	0.689
Cody Latimer	0.097	0.895

Small Receivers

NAME	Stat Score	Athletic Score
Michael Campanaro	0.548	0.225
Brandin Cooks	1.165	0.323
Erik Lora	1.310	0.220
Albert Wilson	1.270	0.502
Odell Beckham	0.120	0.432
Marqise Lee	0.838	-0.005

Of course, these are just the players that the computer thinks have the best chance of becoming 'average' NFL receivers.  My definition of average is a player that can produce 35 receiving yards per game played over the course of their career (a modest 560 receiving yards over 16 games), so my standards are fairly low.  I wouldn't take the scores listed above too seriously, as they are really scores that are built upon many smaller scores, which frequently matter even more.  This is just how I start the 'weeding out' process, to determine which players I want to focus my attention on.  In reality, I always end up having to veto some of the computer's recommendations for various reasons, which I will try to describe as we go along.  Unfortunately, my own worthless and subjective opinion does come into play a bit more on these vetoes.


Because of the way that data slowly becomes available, I will continue to modify and adjust some of these results as new information becomes available.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson  Ht: 6' 0.75"  Wt: 211
40 Time: 4.34  Kangaroo Score: 0.166  Agility Score: -0.515
I have to admit that I have paid almost zero attention to Sammy Watkins.  It's fairly obvious that he will be taken before Team Kangaroo is on the clock at pick #17, so it really isn't worth my time to dig into him as a prospect.  From what I can tell he seems to have reliable hands, and while his physical traits outside of his 40 time aren't mind blowing, they still manage to get him a passing grade.  While his results may not look stunning, I will say that there are some weird inconsistencies in his combine data that would allow for a slightly more positive view of him, as well as the possibility that he might fit better among the 'Small' receiver group, where his stats would be weighed a bit differently.  For instance, his time in the 3-cone drill was a fairly average -0.143 standard deviations below average.  His short shuttle, on the other hand, was a rather poor -0.886 standard deviations below average.  It's somewhat less common to see this kind of difference between the two results, and I suspect Watkins could have cleared up this discrepancy, one way or the other, at his pro day.  Unfortunately, he chose to stand on his combine numbers, leaving me to wonder if there is an actual reason for concern, or not.  There was also a similar issue with the results from his vertical jump and broad jump, where his vertical came out significantly lower than I normally would have expected based on his broad jump results.  Basically, his results are just all over the map.  Like I said though, I've paid very little attention to Watkins.  While I'm willing to accept that Watkins can be a good receiver, I can't confidently bet on him being the best receiver in this draft class.

Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M  Ht: 6' 4.75"  Wt: 231
40 Time: 4.47  Kangaroo Score: 1.408*  Agility Score: -0.550
I can understand why people are interested in Evans, and the power he brings to the table.  I'm just not convinced that this is enough on its own to guarantee success.  While people seem to keep trying to compare Evans to Vincent Jackson, the computer thinks he bears more of a similarity to Marques Colston and Reggie Williams.  While Colston, Williams, and Evans all had good Kangaroo Scores (in Evans case we only have his vertical jump to base this on), their overall athletic profiles are more like a moderately stiff and somewhat smaller tight end.  Even though I place less of an emphasis on agility for 'Big' receivers, when a player's results fall below -0.500, I do start to get a bit nervous.  While I like Colston, and the computer projected him as an interesting 2007 prospect, he is still a bit of an oddball.  I think Colston deserved to be selected higher than he was taken (7th round), but without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I think there were good reasons why he really didn't belong in the first 2 rounds of the draft.  I think the chances that Evans can perform at Colston's level are rather slim, though I would still say that Evans should become at least an average receiver (faint praise).  Personally, Evans didn't make much of an impression on me, when I watched him play.  With Texas A&M's offense spreading people out, and having a scrambling QB to distract people, I think this probably did Evans some significant favors.  That their offensive line also appeared to be giving Manziel extra time to scan the field, and for Evans to eventually get open, also adds to my concerns.  His resume seems to consist of the occasional dominating performance, like at Alabama or Arkansas, and then long stretches of almost complete irrelevance.  Personally, I probably wouldn't take Evans before the 3rd round, as I'm just not convinced he will end up being the sort of terror that some people expect him to become.

Marqise Lee, WR, USC  Ht: 5' 11.75"  Wt: 192
40 Time: 4.44  Kangaroo Score: -0.113  Agility Score: 0.651
Athletically, there isn't necessarily anything wrong with Lee.  The problem is that he sort of skates along the line of mediocrity in several areas, more than I would like to see in a supposed 1st round prospect.  His 10-yard split of 1.56 seconds, in particular, is right where I would begin to fret (at least for a small receiver), if it was any lower.  I have to admit that my opinion of Lee has continued to tumble the more and more I have seen him play.  I'm just not sure that his hands are really worthy of 1st round pick.  While his statistical production is pretty good overall, his reputation still seems to revolve around his 2012 season, and whether you believe that this represented his actual normal level of play, or whether that season was the aberration.  Injuries might explain his drop in production in 2013, but they don't really explain the rate at which he was dropping passes.  I wouldn't want to have that question lingering in my head, if I were selecting him in the 1st round, so I would probably pass on him, unless he fell quite a bit in the draft.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon  Ht: 5' 9.75"  Wt: 189
40 Time: 4.30  Kangaroo Score: -0.759  Agility Score: 1.864
Imagine throwing a feather as hard as you could at Dan Snyder's head.  How much damage would it do?  That's sort of the situation we have with Brandin Cooks.  There just isn't enough power to really be intimidating.  Fortunately, he has the speed and agility to still provide a viable threat, though whether that is threatening enough to merit a 1st round pick is debatable.  Despite his somewhat more impressive bulk, the computer would still lump Cooks in with midget-class receivers such as T.Y. Hilton and DeSean Jackson, who also lack any real power.  I think there is a place for receivers like this, but drafting them in the 1st round would make me nervous, even though I think the odds of Cooks becoming a failure are somewhat slim.  It's just a question of whether his ceiling is high enough to justify such an investment.   His 2nd Gear Score of 0.20 also suggests that his deep speed is probably even more stunning than his already impressive 40-time might appear.  The computer does like Cooks a fair bit more than last year's Tavon Austin, though I would still probably view Cooks as just a luxury acquisition, for a team that already has other pieces in place.

Odell Beckham, WR, LSU  Ht: 5' 11.75"  Wt: 198
40 Time: 4.31  Kangaroo Score: 0.088  Agility Score: 1.565
I'm still not a fan of drafting smallish receivers in the 1st round, but I really can't find much about Beckham that is objectionable.  There was a bit of an issue with his 40-time at the combine, where his official result was a 4.43.  On his first run, he appears to have had a rather bad start with a 10-yard split of 1.59 seconds, and finished with a time of 4.40.  This result produces a 2nd Gear Score of 0.19, which does suggest that his deep speed is still quite impressive.  On his second run, he had an excellent 10-yard split of 1.50 seconds, and finished with a time of 4.31.  Again, his 2nd Gear score was 0.19.  However you look at these numbers, I think it is fair to say that Beckham isn't lacking deep speed.  While I would prefer to have seen stronger statistical production, he did manage to meet the computer's goofy standards, and I didn't see anything in his stats that would suggest a problem.  Personally, I thought he looked pretty good, and had above average hands.  I would say that the odds are pretty good that he will become an above average wide receiver, and he might be my favorite 'Small' receiver in this draft class..

Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State  Ht: 6' 2.5"  Wt: 207
40 Time: 4.48  Kangaroo Score: 1.370  Agility Score: 0.566
Getting an accurate account of Robinson's 40 time has been a bit ridiculous.  At the combine, where he weighed 220#, he had one run of 4.60 seconds, and another of 4.56 seconds.  That was moderately troubling, though his 10-yard splits were quite good.  Then, at his pro day, by which point he had dropped 13 pounds, he seems to have run a 4.48.  The problem is in how the computer looks at speed in relation to weight.  Regardless of any improvement in his 40 time, it is somewhat offset by his loss of mass.  Still, I like Robinson quite a lot.  He has power, agility and was highly productive.  His Agility Score would be even higher (1.695), if I used his pro day results, but for the time being, I am leaving that out.  His statistical production is even more impressive due to the degree to which his team heavily leaned on him as the primary force in their offense.  From what I can tell, he also seems to have rather excellent and reliable hands.  The fact that he is one of the younger WR prospects that will go near the top of the draft also carries some significant weight.  I do, however, think there is a fairly high likelihood that his ceiling might be capped a bit, and that he will become more of a possession receiver because of his lack of speed.  Despite this potential limitation, I'd be very interested in acquiring him.  The upside for Robinson might be similar to that of Mike "Not The Fat One" Williams, or Hakeem Nicks.  The downside might be something along the lines of Brandon Lafell.  While I'd probably be quite willing to pay a 2nd round pick for him, I'm not sure if the potential risks merit a 1st rounder, though it could be very tempting.  Either way, players who fit Robinson's athletic/statistical mold rarely fail, so he should be a relatively safe pick.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt  Ht: 6' 3"  Wt: 212
40 Time: 4.40  Kangaroo Score: 0.232  Agility Score: 0.051
Every single time I watch Matthews play, my opinion gets flipped around.  There's clearly no problem with his statistical production, where his results are stunning.  It's more of an issue with his physical traits.  The computer has generally had a hard time with these sorts of physically large receivers with just moderate lower body power (based on their Kangaroo Score).  Physically, the best comparisons I can give for someone like Matthews might be A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, or Sidney Rice, who were also 'Big' receivers with mediocre Kangaroo Scores.  Of course, there are numerous others who haven't been quite as successful as those three, though most of them were unlikely to have Matthews production as a counterbalance.  Like Sidney Rice, I suspect there might be a somewhat higher risk of injury for Matthews, because of his somewhat lower score on the body mass index.  The computer actually sees Matthews as a 'Small' receiver in a 'Big' receivers body, if that makes any sense.  He seems to get by on speed and agility (his Agility Score may not look exceptional, but by 'Big' receiver standards it is pretty good), more so than by physically dominating his opponents the way most big receivers do.  Based on what I have seen of him, the computer's view of Matthews likely style of play seems to be a pretty good fit.  Some people have expressed minor doubts about his hands, though from what I could tell this wasn't a huge issue, and generally only became a concern on more tightly contested passes.  He wasn't pulling any Heyward-Bey types of drops.  It's when the computer looks at his speed relative to his weight, that Matthews seems to rise above the more common possession receivers and have some real down-the-field potential.  While I would generally prefer a more physically overpowering type of receiver, I have to admit that Matthews will probably become an above average receiver, and even has a good shot at ending up one of the best receivers in this draft class.

Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana  Ht: 6' 2.5"  Wt: 215
40 Time: 4.43  Kangaroo Score: 1.175  Agility Score:  ?
Latimer might be one of the biggest wildcards in 2014 draft.  When it comes to size, speed and power, everything checks out just fine.  Unfortunately, because of a foot injury, he never ran the short shuttle or 3-cone drill, so we'll never know his Agility Score.  Generally, I am suspicious of players who duck out on certain drills, while participating in others, since the player probably knows what their strengths and weaknesses are, and might be hiding something from us.  Though I put less emphasis on the Agility Score for 'Big' receivers, I do think results above, or below -0.500, would have a significant impact on projecting what Latimer may end up becoming, and have used that imaginary result to 'fill in the blanks' for Latimer, as I have a hard time imagining that he is any stiffer than Mike Evans.  This speculation brings me back to the Colston comparison that I brought up when discussing Mike Evans.  Personally, I found Latimer to be much more impressive than Evans, and probably a better heir to the Colston throne.  Latimer appeared to have better hands than Evans, be more physical, and have better speed.  Latimer also might be the best run blocking receiver that I have seen in this entire class.  His mediocre statistical production does cause me some concern, though his team appeared to lean on him just as much as Texas A&M leaned on Evans, in terms of the percentage of the teams total offense that they were each responsible for.  Indiana also didn't appear to be doing Latimer any favors, with the constant changing of the starting QBs.  He particularly seemed to struggle with Chase Coffman in 2012, who appeared to be a more conservative/incompetent QB.  When Sudfeld and Roberson came in, and were making more aggressive down-the-field passes, Latimer clearly did much better.  I suspect his struggles with Coffman might also point towards Latimer perhaps not having the sort of exceptional quickness and agility to dominate as a short range receiver, where these potentially missing traits might come into play more often.  It's just a hunch, and there isn't much I can do to confirm this.  On the other hand, as an intermediate-to-deep receiver, he might be one of the best prospects in this class.  If he is used as a go-up-and-get-it type of frisbee dog receiver, I think he would probably be excellent.  Unfortunately, the hype on Latimer is reaching the point where the risks might be starting to outweigh the rewards, and some people are even projecting that he could slip into the 1st round.  If he was available in the 3rd round, I would definitely take him.  In the 2nd round, I would have to seriously consider it.  In the 1st, I would find it a bit hard to justify...though I have been known to take a stupid gamble from time to time.  I probably like Latimer much more than some of the data would suggest was wise.

Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State  Ht: 6' 1"  Wt: 212
40 Time: 4.50  Kangaroo Score: 0.960  Agility Score: -0.054
I like Davante Adams, but I have to admit that I view him as just a backup plan if I were to miss out on Allen Robinson.  Basically, all of the concerns I have about Robinson extend to Adams, but are somewhat magnified.  Everywhere that Adams did well athletically, Robinson was just a bit better.  While Adams had stunning statistical production, Robinson produced to a greater degree with less surrounding talent (for the most part).  Since I think Robinson might be limited to more of a possession receiver role it's not surprising that my thoughts on Adams are running in a similar direction.  If there is one area where I think Adams comes out ahead of Robinson, it might be related to his hands.  They both seem to be reliable, but Adams hands appear to be just a bit more impressive.  I like Adams, though I doubt I would give him serious consideration before the 3rd round.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Mississippi   Ht: 6' 2"  Wt: 221
40 Time: 4.35  Kangaroo Score: 1.740  Agility Score: -0.545
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley St.   Ht: 6' 2.75"  Wt: 219
40 Time: 4.30  Kangaroo Score: 0.986  Agility Score: 1.520
I would probably cut Donte Moncrief from this list altogether.  His combination of mediocre production and poor hands (most likely related issues), makes him too risky for where many people seem to be projecting that he will be taken, in the 2nd to 3rd round.  Considering the possibility that you can probably get a similarly athletic freak with similarly sketchy hands a couple of rounds later by selecting Jeff Janis, the value in looking at Moncrief seems unjustified.  There's just a little too much Robert Meachem to these guys for me to feel comfortable with using a high draft pick.  Still, I doubt they can be any worse than Stephen Hill.

Mike Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest  Ht: 5' 9.5"  Wt: 192
40 Time: 4.44  Kangaroo Score: 0.113  Agility Score: 1.116
As a mid-to-late round prospect, I think Campanaro is fairly interesting.  His Stat Score actually somewhat underrates his performance, as he missed numerous games with injuries.  At the same time...he missed numerous game with injuries, which is obviously a concern.  Athletically, he's perfectly reasonable, with the sort of quickness, speed, and agility I look for in a small receiver, though I wouldn't describe his speed as blazing.  He seems to have reliable hands, and I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be decent, if he can avoid injuries.

Albert Wilson, WR, Georgia St.  Ht: 5' 9"  Wt: 202
40 Time: 4.35  Kangaroo Score: 0.168  Agility Score: -0.169
I should probably cut Wilson from the list too.  His statistical production, while quite good, obviously came against a lower level of competition.  I also really didn't find him to be terribly interesting when I watched him play, but he appeared to be adequate.  The thing that really makes me want to scratch Wilson from consideration is his 10-yard split of 1.59 seconds.  Do you know what the history is of 'Small' receivers who can't crack 1.56 seconds in their 10-yard split?  It's not very good.  Not very good at all. 

Erik Lora, WR, Eastern Illinois   Ht: 5' 10.3"  Wt: 203
40 Time: 4.48  Kangaroo Score: -0.142  Agility Score: 0.526
I won't say much here.  He's obviously a long shot, from a lower level of competition, and has no shockingly exceptional physical traits.  When it comes to athletic ability, he's basically a thicker framed Marqise Lee, at a significantly lower price.  While Lee will obviously be given a prime opportunity to compete, Lora will be lucky to get drafted at all.  Still, I think he could find a niche on some teams.  He seems to be dependable, and that's not a bad thing.

Now, I'd like to take a moment to rant about some people who really scare me.

Whatever team ends up selecting Kelvin Benjamin, should probably check their GM for symptoms of dementia.  While Benjamin's 1,101 receiving yards in his final season at Florida State might seem impressive, it only represented 15.15% of the team's total offense, which is lower than what I am looking for.  Prior to the 2013 season, he was even less of a presence, and from what I could tell seemed quite unreliable at catching the ball.  The idea of drafting him simply because he is huge, doesn't really make a lot of sense either, as there was little evidence that he possessed any sort of superior athletic ability, since he did poorly in pretty much all of the combine drills.  While I don't make a big deal about Agility Score for 'Big' receivers, his result of -1.624 is still astoundingly bad.  I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, and also weighed his numbers as if he was a tight end, but he still came out as a bit of a mediocrity.  I expect things to go rather badly for whichever team ends up making this pick.

Martavis Bryant is clearly am impressive athlete (4.34 40-time, 0.869 Kangaroo Score and a -0.406 Agility Score) , but I would have serious concerns about drafting him as highly as some people seem to be projecting he will be taken.  Among NFL players who have averaged 45 yards/game played (a higher tier than I have generally been discussing), almost none have had a stat score as low as Bryant's -0.409.  Among those who did, there was almost always an obvious explanation for their poor statistical production, such as Percy Harvin splitting time at RB, Josh Gordon getting suspended, or Stevie Johnson not getting significant playing time until his final college season.  Most of these factors are things I can adjust for, but in Bryant's case, there doesn't seem to be a great reason to overlook how little he actually accomplished.  He may become a useful player of some sort, but I have to doubt that he will produce to a level that would merit a pick in the first 3 rounds.

I feel somewhat bad for criticizing Paul Richardson.  Athletically, he has some worrisome issues (4.35 40-time, -1.037 Kangaroo Score and a -0.461 Agility Score).  His statistical production was pretty good...when he was able to play.  That right there is the issue.  His low score on the body mass index crushes his Athletic Score (his BMI result is -2.690 standard deviations below average), as the computer feels he is way too much of an injury risk because of his thin frame.  It's a similar situation to why the computer has never been a big fan of Sidney Rice, and I think we have all seen how that turned out.  That he has already missed significant time in his college football career due to injury, somewhat verifies that there is a reason for concern, and also knocks down his stat score due to lack of participation.  If he's healthy, he might still surprise me, but as a long term investment, he is very sketchy, especially for someone that people project might be selected in the 2nd round.

Stephen Williams: Seaturkey Extraordinaire

It seems that I stupidly deleted this post at some point.  The positive outcome of this is that I'll try to be more brief this time, in my attempt to describe the interesting situation with Stephen Williams.

In the past three preseason games Stephen Williams, WR for the Seahawks, has emerged as a player that really caught my attention.  He has scored a touchdown 3 weeks in a row, while amassing 186 receiving yards on just 6 receptions (31 yard avg. YPC).  While it's unlikely that anyone could maintain that pace, it gave me a good reason to dig into his numbers.  This 6'4", 210 pound receiver, was undrafted, but picked up as a free agent by the Arizona Cardinals in 2010, but has only had 9 receptions for a total of 101 yards, all back in the 2010 season.  Since then he has only been seen in preseason games, where he seems to have performed quite well. 

One of the most interesting aspects of his arrival in Seattle, is that he comes from a division rival.  If ever there was a team to pick up wide receiver scraps from, it is the Cardinals.  Despite their historic struggles, they have been one of the two most proficient teams in the league at drafting above average wide receivers (above average, in this case, being a receiver who averages over 35 yards per game played over the course of their career), and they have a 57.14% success rate since 2004.  On the other hand, the Seahawks have drafted 7 receivers during this same time frame, and have a 0% success rate.  I would argue that this edge is largely a product of the Cardinals consistently taking players with above average college production, and exceptional athletic ability.  You would think such things matter to teams, but they really don't.  Or at least they don't seem to matter as much as they probably should.  Even in an undrafted player such as Williams, these characteristics are fairly apparent.  Even so, being on a team with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd, it can be easy to fly under the radar.

So, first of all, let's look at his college production from his time at Toledo.

Year	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	% Off.	TD	TD%
2009	79	1065	13.5	20.25	5	23.80
2008	70	781	11	19.48	8	61.53
2007	73	1169	16	21.75	7	36.84

The most interesting thing about these stats is the large percentage of his team's offense that he was responsible for generating.  The average result in a draft worthy receiver's final college year is 17.75%, which Williams easily exceeds.  In a player's next to last year, the average result is 15.34%, which again, Williams surpasses.  The fact that he also produced at such a high level as a sophomore is even more remarkable, and a fairly unusual accomplishment.  This all works out to a Stat Score that is 0.253 standard deviations above his average peers' results, though this only takes into account his final 2 seasons(I only mention his third year here because I find it interesting).  One of the problems here is that his score is being downgraded due to his low yards-per-catch in his junior year.  If you substituted his sophomore year, for his junior one, his Stat Score would jump to 0.446, but that would be bending the rules.  Either way, he produced above average results in college, and that's all that matters here.  Really, I have no idea how somebody like this can go undrafted.

As for his athletic ability, he gets a score of 0.085, which would be an extremely average result.  The problem here is that his results are being heavily influenced by his low body mass.  His BMI (body mass index) score is -1.312 standard deviations below the average, though this is really only a factor if you are concerned about an increased risk of injury.  Considering the Seahawks minimal investment in him, I suspect they don't really care about this (my apologies to Stepehen Williams' mother for my callousness).   The two most comparable thinly framed players I can come up with, who have achieved some degree of success, are A.J. Green and Sidney Rice (who is oddly enough his teammate, and also frequently injured).  If we throw these injury concerns out the window, the picture dramatically improves when we look at his other physical traits. 

Player	40-yard	2nd Gear	Wt/40	Kangaroo	Agility
Stephen Williams	4.48	0.00	0.273	0.505	0.643
Sidney Rice	4.51	-0.04	-0.227	0.231	-0.859

The Wt/40, Kangaroo, and Agility scores are given in the form of how many standard deviations away from the average result that the player is, relative to his peers in the same position group.  Williams' 2nd Gear Score would suggest that his 40 yard dash time gives an accurate view of his deep speed.  His Wt/40 Score reveals that for someone of his weight, he has above average speed.  His Kangaroo Score says he has above average lower body power and explosiveness.  Finally, his Agility Score says that he also has above average agility compared to his peers.  His agility is particularly impressive for someone who is as tall as he is.  Taller receivers tend to do quite poorly in this area.  So, he is fast, agile, and explosive.  Sounds good to me.  It's also interesting to see that he beat the fairly accomplished Sidney Rice in all of these areas.

Overall, I would say that Stephen Williams has a rather good chance of becoming an above average receiver, if he is given an opportunity.  Players who manage to produce these sorts of above average results in terms of athletic ability and statistical production are somewhat rare, and things tend to work out well for them rather frequently.  Will he end up among the highest performing receivers in the league?  Probably not, though it is possible.  There are so many other factors beyond just ability that play a role in reaching that level of success.  In many ways I think Williams could be the other side of the Aaron Mellette coin.  While the computer loves Mellette, the hidden numbers in Mellette's profile caused me some concern.  In Williams' case, his Stat and Athhletic Scores, wouldn't normally excite me too much, but the numbers that make up these scores tell an even more promising story.   I can't really say what will happen with Stephen Williams, but he appears to be intriguing enough that I would like to see him get a real shot at playing.  Williams could turn out to be quite a steal for the Seahawks.

Interesting Prospects From The 2013 Draft

I feel like a lot of my posts may come across as overly negative, making me the Grinch of the NFL Draft.  Then again, history has shown that about 75% of the players do turn out be worth very little (damn it, there I go again).  So, I thought I would list some more players from this most recent draft that the computer suggests might have a better than decent chance of turning out to be successes.

While I may have doubts about some of these players, I think they all have interesting stories or characteristics that will make it worthwhile to keep an eye on their progress.  I tried to focus more on the oddballs, since high draft picks get plenty of attention already, unless I thought a highly regarded player was particularly interesting.  I also probably leaned a bit more towards players who I thought presented good value relative to where they were selected.  Obviously, I have to leave a lot of names off of this list, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the computer and I disliked such unmentioned players.  I had to make some weird judgment calls about who I would include here.

When I make a reference to a player's Agility Score, Kangaroo Score, or some other athletic measurement, it should be noted that these scores can't be compared to the results for players at different positions.  These scores only show how many standard deviations that a player is above or below average compared to others in his same position group.  References to the Stat Score may also come up, but this relates only to wide receivers.

Pick #4, Lane Johnson, OT, Philadelphia Eagles -  To some extent, it felt as if the press kind of dismissed Johnson as a guy who just "works out well", and felt he didn't belong in the same company as Eric Fisher, and Luke Joeckel.  With a Kangaroo Score of 1.482, and an Agility Score of 1.381, it is true that his numbers do appear to be too good to be true.  While I like Fisher, who also did well (but not as well), and to some extent Joeckel, the truth is that Johnson does more closely match the physical ideal standards for an offensive left tackle.  Tackles with Johnson's rare athletic ability rarely fail, and even if he should fail to become a star, having a near guarantee of at least becoming a decent journeyman type, is worth a lot in my eyes.  People often say that such players are boom or bust types, but this attitude that he appears "too good to be true, therefore it must not be true" is just peculiar.  I think the floor for Johnson is actually quite high, and well worth the risk for where he was selected.  Plus, he enjoys tormenting the press with made up stories about wrestling bears, which is another point in his favor.

Pick #13, Sheldon Richardson, DT, New York Jets - Again, some people seemed to think it was a reach to take Richardson earlier than Star Lotulelei, or Sharrif Floyd.  The computer feels that the Jets actually made the correct choice here (at least if you are determined to take a defensive tackle).  Athletically, Richardson was the superior prospect, with a 0.612 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.652 Agility Score.  Lotulelei fell more into the average range (0.199 Kangaroo, and -0.038 Agility), and Floyd performed rather poorly (-0.930 Kangaroo, and 0.133 Agility).  Richardson also averaged 9.25 tackles for a loss in his last two years, compared to Lotulelei's 9.5, and Floyd's 9.75, making them all fairly comparable in this area.  Overall, Richardson's numbers put him in good, but not necessarily great company.  Historically, defensive tackles who can jump over 30 inches, do over 30 repetitions on the bench press, and averaged 10 or more tackles for a loss, almost never fail (though they may turn out to be just average), and Richardson mostly meets these criteria (32", 30 repetitions, and 9.25 avg. TFL).  I might need to post a list of people who fall into this weird group at some point.

Pick #22, Desmond Trufant, CB, Miami Dolphins - In the eyes of the computer, Trufant more closely fit the ideal physical mold of a successful CB than the other top prospects, Xavier Rhodes and Dee Milliner.  His Ht/Spd Score (measuring his 40 time relative to his height) was a very good 0.732 standard deviations above average.  His Agility Score was a truly excellent 1.463.  While he slightly lagged behind the other prospects in creating turnovers in college, his numbers were still in the average range (6 total INTs, 3 FF).  Will he end up being the top corner from this class?  I don't know.  At the very least, I would expect him to be a solid reliable player, which is more than I can say about some of the other options.

Pick #26, Datone Jones, DE/DT, Green Bay Packers - With a -0.261 Kangaroo, and a 1.351 Agility Score, Jones isn't quite as explosively powerful as I would like, but still a very gifted athlete overall.  His average of 12.75 TFL during his last two years in college also reassures you that he made the most out of this physical ability.  Still, as a 3-4 DE prospect, I don't like him quite as much as Kendall Reyes (0.999 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.640 Agility Score, with a 11.75 TFL avg), or Derek Wolfe (0.279 Kangaroo Score, and a 1.145 Agility Score, with a 14 TFL avg.)from the 2012 draft.  If he had slid to the late 2nd round, or into the 3rd, I would have felt more comfortable with him.  Nonetheless, I think he has a reasonable chance of upgrading the Packers defensive line.

Pick #27 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans- He was one of the computer's higher rated WR prospects, plus he gets to play opposite from Andre Johnson. Though there may have been other receivers that the computer liked even more, Hopkins probably wound up in one of the best situations to succeed.

Pick #52 Jamie Collins, OLB, New England Patriots- Hmm, I've pretty much covered this already, so I'll just move on.

Pick #53, Margus Hunt, DE/DT, Cincinnati Bengals -  Hunt is someone I have to mention, even if he makes me nervous that he might be a disappointment.  His 0.538 Kangaroo Score, and 1.279 Agility Score, are too significant to ignore.  On the other hand, he is an older than ideal rookie (26 years old), who only produced okay stats in college, until his senior year where he was quite good.  At 6' 8.5" tall, I also wonder if his height might actually become a disadvantage, particularly for someone who is merely 277# (it sounds weird to say "merely 277#").  Still, the announcers will have fun talking about how he is from Estonia, so that is worth something.  I would have been too nervous to take him this highly (though it was tempting), but he is very physically gifted.  In the end, I probably would have chosen him ahead of Datone Jones.

Pick #54 Jamar Taylor, CB, Miami Dolphins - He's not a big CB, but I thought he was quite scrappy.  His measurables weren't bad either.  His Ht/Spd Score was a solid 0.448, and his Agility Score was a similarly respectable 0.592.  He also possessed a 2nd Gear Score of 0.16, suggesting that his acceleration could be even more impressive than his excellent 4.37 forty time might suggest.  There might be guys with better stats, or combine numbers, but of the players who were acceptable in the eyes of the computer, he was one of the most fun to watch play.

Pick #62, Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks - I have no idea how he is ever going to get any playing time when stuck behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  Still, he is the most physically perfect running back in the 2013 class. You can see how he compares athletically to the other 2013 RBs here.

Pick #71, T.J. McDonald, S, St. Louis Rams - I've already gotten grief from people for being a fan of his, but I still think there was good value in this pick.  The computer has a harder time sorting out safeties, but still likes his measurables and college production.  At 6'2", 219#, he definitely has excellent size for a safety.  His 0.839 Ht/Spd Score was well above average, though his Agility Score of -0.063 is a bit more mundane.  Still, this score is only showing his agility in comparison to all defensive backs, so for a safety it's actually a good result.  He also had a 40" vertical jump, which shows some truly remarkable explosiveness.  Some people were critical about his coverage abilities, but I didn't really notice this too much when I watched him play.  To me, he was a guy who showed up all over the place, running up to make a tackle, and seeming equally adept dropping back.  His stats were also quite exceptional, with 8 career INTs, and 112 tackles in his senior year.  I think he will do better than a lot of people think, and that the 3rd round was just about the right place to pick him.

Pick #72, Brian Winters, G, New York Jets - It is somewhat embarrassing to have another Jets' selection on this list.  What can I say?  They appear to have had a good draft.  At 6'4", 320#, with a Kangaroo Score of 1.019, and an Agility Score of 0.344, Winters is quite an interesting guy.  His numbers would suggest that he will turn into quite the run blocker.  He also shouldn't be a liability as a pass protector, though this might not be his area of strength.  Compared to the guards who were taken in the 1st round, the computer thinks Winters could turn out just as well, if not better, so they probably got very good value with this pick.

Pick #75 Terron Armstead, OT, New Orleans Saints - Again, some people seemed to treat Terron's excellent athletic ability as something not to be taken too seriously.  His 1.259 Kangaroo Score, and 0.342 Agility Score, project well to the NFL.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he ends up being the starting tackle for the Saints this year, and performs quite well.  The Saints seem like an excellent landing spot for a guy from Arkansas Pine-Bluff, since Drew Brees probably helps his linemen look good, more than a guy like Blaine Gabbert would.

Pick #79 Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - I've already included him in the list of interesting wideouts from 2013, so I'll just add that landing with Ben Roethlisberger only enhances the likelihood that his skills can be capitalized upon.  The Steelers have done quite well, recently, at making the most of somewhat small but speedy receivers.  His real value may not come until next year, when Emmanuel Sanders is likely to depart the team.

Pick #93 Will Davis, CB, Miami Doplhins - Again, the Dolphins take a CB that the computer likes, having already chosen Jamar Taylor.  His 1.161 Ht/Spd Score, and 0.899 Agility Score, actually measure even better than Taylor's results.  Still, his 2nd Gear Score of just 0.07, is a bit average.  The main reason I slightly prefer Taylor is because of how they looked when watching them play.  Davis seemed more nimble, but played with less violence and aggression.  Between the two of them, it's hard to say who will emerge as the better player, but by picking both I think the odds are strongly in favor of at least one becoming quite excellent.

Pick #94 Brandon Williams, NT, Baltimore Ravens - If you can accept the idea that simply being an immovable blob is a valuable trait, then you will like this pick.  Compared to Terrence Cody, who has been a dismal failure, this should prove to be an immediate upgrade.  Williams' Kangaroo Score of 0.874, and Agility Score of -1.397 (relatively unimportant for nose tackles), should quickly push Cody out of the way who only had a -1.242 Kangaroo Score, and a -1.864 Agility Score.  The Kangaroo Score is the name of the game for nose tackles, where raw explosive power is their most important trait.  Why people thought that Cody would succeed is a mystery to me.

Pick #97 Zaviar Gooden, LB, Tennessee Titans - Gooden is a rather odd physical specimen.  With a 0.402 Kangaroo Score, and a 1.494 Agility, while running a shocking 4.46 forty yard dash, he is clearly gifted.  Still, his production in college was just good, not great.  He only averaged 5 TFL in his last two years, which is a bit poor, and doesn't suggest much of a violent attacking disposition.  He did have a fair number of interceptions though.  So, as a coverage type linebacker, who can run people down, he is still fairly appealing for a late 3rd round pick.

Pick #102 Josh Boyce, WR, New England Patriots - He's also in the list of interesting 2013 receivers.  Personally, I think he has an excellent chance to eventually become the top receiver on the team.  The fact that the Patriots' other receivers aren't very good aids in this.  I think there is also a reasonable probability that he will outperform Aaron Dobson (selected by the Patriots with the 59th pick).  One of my favorite 'Small' receivers in the draft.

Pick #124 Trevardo Williams, DE/OLB, Houston Texans - This pick could have a huge payoff, or amount to nothing. His measurables are nothing shocking, with a 0.309 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.002 Agility Score.  Combined with his smaller size, at just 241#, I would normally have to bet against him.  Still, he was a very productive pass rusher, averaging 14.25 TFL in his last two years.  This is one of those odd times where my gut battles with my computer.  I just like watching him play, so I'm kind of hoping the computer is wrong about him.

Pick #128 Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers - I've mentioned him before in the list of interesting 2013 wide receivers, so I'll keep this short.  He may not be as flashy as some guys, but he seems very solid.  A lot of people with gaudier 40 times were taken ahead of him, and are going to probably fare much worse.  Maybe he won't become a #1 type receiver, but I think he should become a dependable #2.  It made no sense for him to fall this far in the draft, while having bozos like Ace Sanders drafted ahead of him.

Pick #132 Devin Taylor, DE, Detroit Lions - From a physical perspective, Taylor is ideal.  Unfortunately, his production never lived up to this ability.  At 6'7", 266#, with a 1.346 Kangaroo Score and a 0.815 Agility Score, I would have expected him to average more than 8.5 TFL in his last two years in college, especially playing across from Jadeveon Clowney.  Still, for a late 4th round pick, his ability is quite enticing, as he at least has the physical potential to be great.  With the Lions loss of Cliff Avril and Lawrence Jackson, he also has a shot to get some playing time.

Pick #147 Steven Means, DE/OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm not really sold on Steven Means, but at this point in the draft it's not unreasonable to take some gambles.  Means had a 1.408 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.075 Agility Score, while averaging a rather mediocre 7.25 TFL in his last two years.  His measurables suggest he could do okay as a 4-3 DE, but his college production fails to excite me very much.

Pick #150 Terry Hawthorne, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers -  He has decent size at 5'11.25", 193#, and generally seems willing to play a fairly physical game.  His Ht/Spd Score of 1.026 is excellent, as is his 2nd Gear Score of 0.21, so keeping up with receivers shouldn't be a problem.  On the other hand, his Agility Score of -0.175, is slightly below average, and suggests he could have a harder time against nimbler receivers who run sharp routes.  In the end, I still think there is decent potential value in this pick.

Pick #170 Eric Kush, C, Kansas City Chiefs - This pretty much sums up my views on this subject.  He was the computer's favorite center prospect in the draft.

Pick #176 Dave Quessenberry, OT/OG, Houston Texans - At the very least, Quessenberry should provide good depth and flexibility to the Texans o-line.  Athletically he shows just decent explosiveness with a 0.351 Kangaroo Score, but has an excellent Agility Score of 1.234.  The numbers would suggest that he might be better suited to playing guard, though I can't rule out the possibility of him doing well at the tackle position.  This seems like a rather safe pick, that should help to keep a very good offensive line well stocked.

Pick #181 Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders - I should be more of a fan of this pick, based on his measurables, but when I watch him play it just doesn't click for me.  Still, I have to keep him on the radar, to see if the computer's hunch turns out to be correct.  You can see how he compares athletically to the other 2013 RBs here.

Pick #189 Mike James, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- I'm not going to say much here, since we'll probably never hear his name again.  His measurables were pretty good, though his college production was a bit anemic, since he always split carries with other backs.  I did enjoy watching him play though, and have to wonder if he could exceed people's expectations if given more of a chance.  Being stuck behind Doug Martin won't help the cause though.

Pick #198 Chris Jones, Houston Texans- His Kangaroo Score of -0.027 is merely average, but his Agility Score of 1.015 is simply excellent.  Combining that with his average number of tackles for a loss in his final two college years, of 16.5 per year, and you have a verrrrry intriguing player.  Seems well worth investing a late 6th round pick in a player like this, and could end up rewarding the Texans quite handsomely.

Pick #207 Mike Catapano, DE/OLB, Kansas City Chiefs - Every year their seems to be an odd duck like Catapano.  He's one of those guys who measures up as a potentially very interesting 3-4 OLB pass rusher, until you see the school that he came from, in this case Princeton.  Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about the Princeton issue, but I do have my doubts as to whether a team will give him much of a chance.  He had a 1.176 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.402 Agility Score, while averaging 12.75 TFL in his last two years.  Seems well suited to playing OLB in a 3-4.

Pick #216 Charles Johnson, WR, Green Bay Packers-  Johnson is probably on of the most physically gifted receivers in the whole draft class, and fits the mold of a conventional high end #1 receiver quite well.  His production at Grand Valley State was also quite good, so to some extent he lived up to his physical gifts.  Still, that is Grand Valley State, so it's not surprising that teams were nervous about selecting him.  Personally, I think this was a steal for the Packers, and though there is some risk, the potential reward is enormous.  I've mentioned him previously among the interesting wideouts of 2013, so you can see some comparisons to him in that post.  Why people let him fall this far, while taking the likely overrated Brian Quick (from the similarly goofy Appalachian State)in the second round of the 2012 draft, makes no sense.

Pick #223 Nicholas Williams, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers- At this point in the draft, I'm just happy if a player has some sort of potential.  Williams production in college was merely average (averaging 5.75 TFL in his final two years) , but his Kangaroo Score of 1.069 suggests he has some explosive power, and his Agility Score of 0.141 is at least in the average range.  It's a low risk, potentially decent reward type of pick.

Pick #235 Steve Beauharnais, LB, New England Patriots- I'm actually a bit of a fan of this player.  With a 0.899 Agility Score, and a -0.737 Kangaroo Score, he actually struck me as a reasonable prospect to play middle linebacker.  He was also quite productive in his time at Rutgers.  His 4.84 forty yard dash was somewhat concerning, though he improved this at his pro day to a 4.67 (if you can trust pro day results).  I think this pick could provide excellent value to the Patriots.

Pick #238 Aaron Mellette, WR, Baltimore Ravens-  I've already covered this subject, and my expectations aren't excessively high, but I can see the appeal of this pick.  It makes more sense than how the Ravens usually pick their receivers.

Undrafted Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Buffalo Bills - Like Charles Johnson, he arguably had the best combination of physical traits, and proven college production, among the 'Big' receivers in this draft.  Unlike Johnson, he had some proven success at a highly competitive college program (Tennessee).  Unfortunately, people also felt he had some character issues.  I had a high enough opinion of him to give him his own post.

Undrafted Eric Martin, DE/LB, New Orleans Saints - While he didn't get many opportunities at Nebraska, until his senior year, he made the most of his chances.  In his last year, he had 16.5 TFL, with 8.5 sacks, and was generally quite a menace to opposing QBs.  While his Kangaroo Score is only -1.094, this could be due to an odd imbalance when comparing his vertical jump to his broad jump.  Based on his broad jump, his Kangaroo Score would be closer to -0.553.  Though that is still well below what I am normally looking for, his Agility Score is an astounding 2.230 (the 3rd highest result I've ever seen), which suggest he could fit in amongst the high agility pass rushers.  Initially, I thought someone might try to move him to MLB, where his measurables are more favorable, but it looks like the Saints might give him a real shot as a pass rusher.  Considering their team's injuries, he has a legitimate shot at getting playing time.

Undrafted Paul Worrilow, LB Atlanta Falcons - I've already sung the praises of this oddball from Delaware.

Undrafted Ryan Spadola, WR, New York Jets - He's something of an oddball, coming from Lehigh University, but the computer like him a lot.  Though he's a bit of a longshot, I thought he deserved his own post.

Undrafted Cody Davis, S/CB, Rams - Athletically, Davis compares favorably to some of the elite cornerbacks in the league.  At 6'1", 204#, he has a Ht/Spd Score of 1.161, and an Agility Score of 0.899.  So, yes, he is big, fast, and agile.  He also averaged 90.5 tackles per year, in his four seasons at Texas Tech.  Unfortunately, a lot of this seemed to be in clean up duty for his teammates.  He also only produced 4 INTs in this time.  For a guy who will cost a team nothing to sign, he is a very intriguing and highly experienced player.

Undrafted Jayson DiManche, LB, Cincinnati Bengals - This is one of those prospects where the computer isn't as intrigued as I am.  At 6' 0.4", 231#, DiManche isn't exactly huge, and the computer penalizes him heavily because of this.  His Kangaroo Score of -0.027, and Agility Score of 0.127, are merely average.  The problem, in the eyes of the computer, is he lacks the mass to be a defensive end, and his agility would only be mediocre for a linebacker.  Still, if he could maintain his explosiveness (38" vertical jump, 10'7" broad jump) while gaining some weight, the computer's opinion would improve.  His 4.53 forty yard dash, was also fairly impressive.  Either way, I like the guy.  At Southern Illinois, he averaged 12.75 TFL in his last two years, and had 8 sacks as a senior.  Beyond all of that, he was just a fun and exciting player to watch.  Figuring out where to play him would seem to be the main obstacle.

Undrafted Glenn Foster, DT/DE, New Orleans Saints - In the computer's opinion, Foster is basically a somewhat shorter version of Mario Williams or J.J. Watt (6'3.5" vs. 6'7" and 6'5"), at least athletically.  With a 2.305 Kangaroo score, Foster shows absolutely shocking explosiveness and power, and his Agility Score of 1.300 is almost as remarkable.  Unfortunately his statistical production in college pales in comparison.  While Williams and Watt averaged 19.5 and 18.25 tackles for a loss in their final two college seasons, Foster only averaged 4.75.  Quite a big difference.  Still, an argument could be made that coming into college as a mere 255# DT, on an incredibly bad Illinois team, hindered his progress.  Playing now at 286#, he has not only filled out his frame, but is also moving to the 3-4 DE position, which might suit him better.  There is vast potential here, and no real risk for the Saints.

Undrafted Nick Driskill, S, Colts - I have no idea what will become of this guy, but his stats are cartoonishly ridiculous.  He deserved a post of his own, even if the odds are a bit stacked against him.