Arthur Brown vs. Lavonte David

I have to admit to being a bit excited to see what will become of Arthur Brown, the MLB that the Ravens traded up to select with the 56th pick in the 2013 draft.  As I've mentioned before, I'm kind of betting against Arthur Brown, but I have no real ax to grind on this issue, and wish him the best of luck.  Still, the numbers upon which I base most of my hunches suggest that it is reasonable to be wary of Brown.

When I wrote about Paul Worrilow, I discussed how predicting the success of middle linebackers is a bit more difficult than when we look at other positions on the defense.  This position, as well as safeties, can be used in so many different ways, which makes ruling out success completely a bit difficult.  They can drop into coverage, run sideline to sideline, or blitz the QB, and as long as they can do at least one of these things adequately, they'll continue to have a job.  The truly exceptional MLB can do all three of these things at a high level, but such players are so rare that you generally have to content yourself with someone a bit more limited.  In general, I would say that there is maybe one full service MLB in every draft class, and they tend to go in the first two rounds, because they are fairly obvious talents.  Unfortunately, the 2013 draft class had very little to offer (in the eyes of the computer) in terms of obvious high end MLB talent (at least among players projected to go in the first few rounds). The computer felt that many of the prospects being pushed into the first two rounds, were more a product of a weak draft class, rather than exceptional talents.

I don't think people are expecting Brown to meet the standards of a young Ray Lewis.  The fans probably aren't that crazy.  Fortunately, Lewis' steady decline in the last few years should make the transition significantly less glaring.  Hooray for lower standards!  Beyond that, there is also the high probability that Arthur Brown will end up starting, even if he isn't particularly great, simply due to a lack of options.  The reason this bothers me, is that I think people will end up viewing his starter status too optimistically, and overstate the grandness of any play he ends up making (sort of like people did with Courtney Upshaw this past year).  It's not that I can't appreciate the optimism of the fans, but people tend to treat all draft picks, particularly the high ones, as if they are going to be future stars...until the truth becomes unavoidable.  Then we just move on to our next infatuation.

Again, none of what I'm saying should be read as a statement saying "Arthur Brown can't possibly succeed".  I'm just trying to encourage a more cautious approach to appraising him.  While laying out a precise set of requirements for a high end MLB is a bit complicated, there are some physical and statistical thresholds that you don't tend to see the best of the best falling below.  Just taking a quick look at some of the recent draft classes, we can see some rough patterns amongst the more well known and currently productive MLBs.  As always, the Kangaroo and Agility scores are given in terms of how many standard deviations that a player is above or below the average result for his position group.

Player                                Year      40 time    Avg. TFL      Kangaroo    Agility Score

Arthur Brown	2013	4.67	8.25	-0.869	0.441
Luke Kuechly	2012	4.58	11.25	0.303	1.256
Mychal Kendricks	2012	4.44	14.75	0.574	1.524
Bobby Wagner	2012	4.46	9.75	0.951	0.466
Lavonte David	2012	4.57	14	-0.547	0.285
Akeem Ayers	2011	4.70	12.25	-0.006	0.293
Sean Weatherspoon	2010	4.62	16.5	0.422	0.401
Sean Lee	2010	4.72	10.75	-0.219	1.203
Brian Cushing	2009	4.64	6.5	-0.219	1.133
James Laurinaitis	2009	4.76	7.75	-0.723	0.904
Jerod Mayo	2008	4.54	10.25	0.142	0.034
Curtis Lofton	2008	4.79	8.25	-1.333	-1.445
Patrick Willis	2007	4.51	10.5	0.217	-0.282
Lawrence Timmons	2007	4.66	10.75	-0.481	0.702
Paul Posluszny	2007	4.70	10.5	-0.406	0.996
AJ Hawk	2006	4.59	12.5	0.421	1.891
DeMeco Ryans	2006	4.65	9.5	0.463	0.569
Derrick Johnson	2005	4.52	19.5	0.070	1.223
Jonathan Vilma	2004	4.61	N/A	-0.376	1.516
Karlos Dansby	2004	4.58	11.5	-0.059	-0.763
Nick Barnett	2003	4.67	13.5	-0.451	1.212
Avg. Results		4.61	11.42	-0.062	0.655

In some cases, such as with Lavonte David, Akeem Ayers, and Sean Weatherspoon, I included players who are currently 4-3 outside linebackers.  This was either due to a shortage of plausible, and successful, middle linebacker prospects from their draft class, or simply because I think that projecting them to the inside isn't that far fetched.  You can make whatever you wish to of this decision.  However you choose to look at it, this is, I feel, a reasonable representation of the most highly acclaimed and highly drafted MLBs from the past few years, minus a handful of players for whom there isn't sufficient data.

If the Kangaroo scores seem a bit lower in general, this is because these players are graded with all of the OLBs and defensive ends (generally the cutoff point is 275#), who throw off the curve for the MLBs.  The average results for middle linebackers is probably closer to -0.800 (for now, use that as the baseline for judging these Kangaroo Scores).  If anyone is curious, the average Kangaroo Score for the last 17 Pro Bowl or All Pro MLBs would be around -0.362.  These same 17 Pro Bowl/All Pro MLBs averaged 0.633 on the Agility Score.

So, what do we see when we look at Arthur Brown in comparison to his peers?  Well, first of all, his 40 time is merely okay, and slightly below the average result of his peers in this list, though this is hardly a huge concern.  Secondly, in terms of his Kangaroo Score, he performed worse than anyone on this list, except for Curtis Lofton, who is a bit of an anomaly.  Excluding Lofton, only James Laurinitis came close to Arthur Brown's score of -0.869.  Generally, this would suggest a low probability that a MLB would generate much pressure as a blitzer.  Still, this is not necessarily the end of the world.  Thirdly, we come to Arthur Brown's Agility Score of 0.441, where he did better, though still blow the overall average for the group.  So, this would predict he has some ability to drop into coverage, but still doesn't suggest anything exceptional.

Among the 8 players who had more mundane or average agility scores, let's say below 0.500, most compensated by having improved Kangaroo Scores.  Excluding Curtis Lofton, who I have no explanation for, only Lavonte David remains among these 8, as appearing to be significantly below average in terms of his explosiveness, while simultaneously just okay in terms of agility.  It is for this reason that I included Lavonte David on this list in the first place, despite the fact that he is currently playing as an outside linebacker.  I'll get to that comparison in a second.

For a player whose reputation seems to largely hang upon his alleged athletic ability and speed, Brown certainly doesn't seem to demonstrate this when tested.  Except for a moderately above average Agility Score, his results are in the average to poor range.  Still, I can accept the possibility that he might have just had a bad day at the combine.  It's his on the field results that matter, correct?

As far as the player's Avg. TFL (the average number of tackles for a loss that they generated in the last two years in college), Arthur Brown is again somewhat below average.  You might think that this doesn't matter, and only relates to their pass rushing ability, but I feel differently.  Even if a player isn't generating a significant number of sacks, I think their Avg. TFL number says something about the awareness/decisiveness/aggressiveness with which they are attacking the play, rather than just waiting for it to come to them.  While it is certainly true that the teams they played on can influence these stats, I wouldn't be thrilled with seeing a player measure up poorly in this area. 

As I said, I wanted to make a comparison between Arthur Brown and Lavonte David.  I find this comparison particularly interesting, because I've actually been a fan of Lavonte David for some time now, despite his rather pedestrian measurables.  During the 2012 draft, the computer suggested that there were 4 players who were plausible candidates to become significant inside linebackers Kuechly, Wagner, Kendricks, and David.  So far, they all seem to be doing quite well for themselves. For the most part, I ignored Kuechly, since it was obvious he would be taken before the Ravens would be making their pick.  This left me with just three prospects.  Despite the fact that Kendricks and Wagner scored better, I couldn't escape the fact that Lavonte David was the player I had the most fun watching.  While his combine numbers were just in the acceptable range, his exceptional college stats kept him on my radar.  I still believe that the physically superior player, with proven production, tends to be the safer bet, but Lavonte David drew my eye, and it wasn't as if he did terribly, as far as his measurables were concerned. 

To keep this a fair comparison, let's just compare Arthur Brown's statistical production to that of Lavonte David and the enigmatic Curtis Lofton.  We'll just look at the results from their final two year in college.

Player	TKL	TFL	Sack	PBU	INT	FF
Arthur Brown 1	100	7	1	4	2	0
Arthur Brown 2	101	9.5	2	2	1	0
Lavonte David 1	133	13	5.5	2	2	3
Lavonte David 2	152	15	6	10	0	0
Curtis Lofton 1	157	10.5	1	5	3	4
Curtis Lofton 2 (4 games)	37	4.5	0	0	0	1

Despite all three players being 2nd round picks (Arthur Brown 56th overall, Lavonte David 58th overall, and Curtis Lofton 37th overall), their stat sheets seem to tell an odd story.  For all of his acclaim, Brown doesn't seem to have produced terribly remarkable statistics in any category.  He forced no fumbles.  Brown's number of passes broken up, and interceptions, were decent, but hardly exceptional.  This seems peculiar considering that his coverage ability is allegedly one of his strengths.  His total number of tackles, and TFLs, paled in comparison to the other two (Lofton was on pace for 111 tackles and 13.5 TFL in his junior year, though whether he would have reached those marks is debatable), suggesting less of a presence against the run.  In the end, Brown's stats still appear to be good, but not so stunning that it would make me overlook his mediocre average athletic ability, the way I might for the much more accomplished Lavonte David.

Should I really judge a player off of his stat sheet?  Probably not.  The situations that a player finds himself in do have an impact on these numbers.  Still, I can't deny that I am a sucker for a player with lots of numbers after his name. 

While Curtis Lofton might seem like a reasonable example for why you could ignore athletic measurables, I don't think that is really the case.  According to Pro Football Focus, Lofton has a terrible career rating in terms of his pass coverage ability, which would correspond with his poor Agility Score.  Similarly, he has had a rather poor pass rusher rating from them, which I believe could relate to his bad Kangaroo Score (though agility plays a role in this too).  This hasn't prevented him from becoming a good run stopper, but it does make him a fairly one dimensional player.

I can't predict how things will turn out for Arthur Brown.  All I can say is that for where he was selected, I would be looking for more reassuring signs of athletic or statistical dominance.  If Brown turns out to be just an average to decent middle linebacker, as his numbers would suggest, that is still worth something, though I would argue, not a 2nd round pick (as well as the additional 5th round and 6th round picks it took to trade up).  If he turns out to be great, that's excellent.  I just feel that the argument for taking him isn't as clear cut as some people make it out to be.

Interesting Prospects From The 2013 Draft

I feel like a lot of my posts may come across as overly negative, making me the Grinch of the NFL Draft.  Then again, history has shown that about 75% of the players do turn out be worth very little (damn it, there I go again).  So, I thought I would list some more players from this most recent draft that the computer suggests might have a better than decent chance of turning out to be successes.

While I may have doubts about some of these players, I think they all have interesting stories or characteristics that will make it worthwhile to keep an eye on their progress.  I tried to focus more on the oddballs, since high draft picks get plenty of attention already, unless I thought a highly regarded player was particularly interesting.  I also probably leaned a bit more towards players who I thought presented good value relative to where they were selected.  Obviously, I have to leave a lot of names off of this list, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the computer and I disliked such unmentioned players.  I had to make some weird judgment calls about who I would include here.

When I make a reference to a player's Agility Score, Kangaroo Score, or some other athletic measurement, it should be noted that these scores can't be compared to the results for players at different positions.  These scores only show how many standard deviations that a player is above or below average compared to others in his same position group.  References to the Stat Score may also come up, but this relates only to wide receivers.

Pick #4, Lane Johnson, OT, Philadelphia Eagles -  To some extent, it felt as if the press kind of dismissed Johnson as a guy who just "works out well", and felt he didn't belong in the same company as Eric Fisher, and Luke Joeckel.  With a Kangaroo Score of 1.482, and an Agility Score of 1.381, it is true that his numbers do appear to be too good to be true.  While I like Fisher, who also did well (but not as well), and to some extent Joeckel, the truth is that Johnson does more closely match the physical ideal standards for an offensive left tackle.  Tackles with Johnson's rare athletic ability rarely fail, and even if he should fail to become a star, having a near guarantee of at least becoming a decent journeyman type, is worth a lot in my eyes.  People often say that such players are boom or bust types, but this attitude that he appears "too good to be true, therefore it must not be true" is just peculiar.  I think the floor for Johnson is actually quite high, and well worth the risk for where he was selected.  Plus, he enjoys tormenting the press with made up stories about wrestling bears, which is another point in his favor.

Pick #13, Sheldon Richardson, DT, New York Jets - Again, some people seemed to think it was a reach to take Richardson earlier than Star Lotulelei, or Sharrif Floyd.  The computer feels that the Jets actually made the correct choice here (at least if you are determined to take a defensive tackle).  Athletically, Richardson was the superior prospect, with a 0.612 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.652 Agility Score.  Lotulelei fell more into the average range (0.199 Kangaroo, and -0.038 Agility), and Floyd performed rather poorly (-0.930 Kangaroo, and 0.133 Agility).  Richardson also averaged 9.25 tackles for a loss in his last two years, compared to Lotulelei's 9.5, and Floyd's 9.75, making them all fairly comparable in this area.  Overall, Richardson's numbers put him in good, but not necessarily great company.  Historically, defensive tackles who can jump over 30 inches, do over 30 repetitions on the bench press, and averaged 10 or more tackles for a loss, almost never fail (though they may turn out to be just average), and Richardson mostly meets these criteria (32", 30 repetitions, and 9.25 avg. TFL).  I might need to post a list of people who fall into this weird group at some point.

Pick #22, Desmond Trufant, CB, Miami Dolphins - In the eyes of the computer, Trufant more closely fit the ideal physical mold of a successful CB than the other top prospects, Xavier Rhodes and Dee Milliner.  His Ht/Spd Score (measuring his 40 time relative to his height) was a very good 0.732 standard deviations above average.  His Agility Score was a truly excellent 1.463.  While he slightly lagged behind the other prospects in creating turnovers in college, his numbers were still in the average range (6 total INTs, 3 FF).  Will he end up being the top corner from this class?  I don't know.  At the very least, I would expect him to be a solid reliable player, which is more than I can say about some of the other options.

Pick #26, Datone Jones, DE/DT, Green Bay Packers - With a -0.261 Kangaroo, and a 1.351 Agility Score, Jones isn't quite as explosively powerful as I would like, but still a very gifted athlete overall.  His average of 12.75 TFL during his last two years in college also reassures you that he made the most out of this physical ability.  Still, as a 3-4 DE prospect, I don't like him quite as much as Kendall Reyes (0.999 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.640 Agility Score, with a 11.75 TFL avg), or Derek Wolfe (0.279 Kangaroo Score, and a 1.145 Agility Score, with a 14 TFL avg.)from the 2012 draft.  If he had slid to the late 2nd round, or into the 3rd, I would have felt more comfortable with him.  Nonetheless, I think he has a reasonable chance of upgrading the Packers defensive line.

Pick #27 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans- He was one of the computer's higher rated WR prospects, plus he gets to play opposite from Andre Johnson. Though there may have been other receivers that the computer liked even more, Hopkins probably wound up in one of the best situations to succeed.

Pick #52 Jamie Collins, OLB, New England Patriots- Hmm, I've pretty much covered this already, so I'll just move on.

Pick #53, Margus Hunt, DE/DT, Cincinnati Bengals -  Hunt is someone I have to mention, even if he makes me nervous that he might be a disappointment.  His 0.538 Kangaroo Score, and 1.279 Agility Score, are too significant to ignore.  On the other hand, he is an older than ideal rookie (26 years old), who only produced okay stats in college, until his senior year where he was quite good.  At 6' 8.5" tall, I also wonder if his height might actually become a disadvantage, particularly for someone who is merely 277# (it sounds weird to say "merely 277#").  Still, the announcers will have fun talking about how he is from Estonia, so that is worth something.  I would have been too nervous to take him this highly (though it was tempting), but he is very physically gifted.  In the end, I probably would have chosen him ahead of Datone Jones.

Pick #54 Jamar Taylor, CB, Miami Dolphins - He's not a big CB, but I thought he was quite scrappy.  His measurables weren't bad either.  His Ht/Spd Score was a solid 0.448, and his Agility Score was a similarly respectable 0.592.  He also possessed a 2nd Gear Score of 0.16, suggesting that his acceleration could be even more impressive than his excellent 4.37 forty time might suggest.  There might be guys with better stats, or combine numbers, but of the players who were acceptable in the eyes of the computer, he was one of the most fun to watch play.

Pick #62, Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks - I have no idea how he is ever going to get any playing time when stuck behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  Still, he is the most physically perfect running back in the 2013 class. You can see how he compares athletically to the other 2013 RBs here.

Pick #71, T.J. McDonald, S, St. Louis Rams - I've already gotten grief from people for being a fan of his, but I still think there was good value in this pick.  The computer has a harder time sorting out safeties, but still likes his measurables and college production.  At 6'2", 219#, he definitely has excellent size for a safety.  His 0.839 Ht/Spd Score was well above average, though his Agility Score of -0.063 is a bit more mundane.  Still, this score is only showing his agility in comparison to all defensive backs, so for a safety it's actually a good result.  He also had a 40" vertical jump, which shows some truly remarkable explosiveness.  Some people were critical about his coverage abilities, but I didn't really notice this too much when I watched him play.  To me, he was a guy who showed up all over the place, running up to make a tackle, and seeming equally adept dropping back.  His stats were also quite exceptional, with 8 career INTs, and 112 tackles in his senior year.  I think he will do better than a lot of people think, and that the 3rd round was just about the right place to pick him.

Pick #72, Brian Winters, G, New York Jets - It is somewhat embarrassing to have another Jets' selection on this list.  What can I say?  They appear to have had a good draft.  At 6'4", 320#, with a Kangaroo Score of 1.019, and an Agility Score of 0.344, Winters is quite an interesting guy.  His numbers would suggest that he will turn into quite the run blocker.  He also shouldn't be a liability as a pass protector, though this might not be his area of strength.  Compared to the guards who were taken in the 1st round, the computer thinks Winters could turn out just as well, if not better, so they probably got very good value with this pick.

Pick #75 Terron Armstead, OT, New Orleans Saints - Again, some people seemed to treat Terron's excellent athletic ability as something not to be taken too seriously.  His 1.259 Kangaroo Score, and 0.342 Agility Score, project well to the NFL.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he ends up being the starting tackle for the Saints this year, and performs quite well.  The Saints seem like an excellent landing spot for a guy from Arkansas Pine-Bluff, since Drew Brees probably helps his linemen look good, more than a guy like Blaine Gabbert would.

Pick #79 Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - I've already included him in the list of interesting wideouts from 2013, so I'll just add that landing with Ben Roethlisberger only enhances the likelihood that his skills can be capitalized upon.  The Steelers have done quite well, recently, at making the most of somewhat small but speedy receivers.  His real value may not come until next year, when Emmanuel Sanders is likely to depart the team.

Pick #93 Will Davis, CB, Miami Doplhins - Again, the Dolphins take a CB that the computer likes, having already chosen Jamar Taylor.  His 1.161 Ht/Spd Score, and 0.899 Agility Score, actually measure even better than Taylor's results.  Still, his 2nd Gear Score of just 0.07, is a bit average.  The main reason I slightly prefer Taylor is because of how they looked when watching them play.  Davis seemed more nimble, but played with less violence and aggression.  Between the two of them, it's hard to say who will emerge as the better player, but by picking both I think the odds are strongly in favor of at least one becoming quite excellent.

Pick #94 Brandon Williams, NT, Baltimore Ravens - If you can accept the idea that simply being an immovable blob is a valuable trait, then you will like this pick.  Compared to Terrence Cody, who has been a dismal failure, this should prove to be an immediate upgrade.  Williams' Kangaroo Score of 0.874, and Agility Score of -1.397 (relatively unimportant for nose tackles), should quickly push Cody out of the way who only had a -1.242 Kangaroo Score, and a -1.864 Agility Score.  The Kangaroo Score is the name of the game for nose tackles, where raw explosive power is their most important trait.  Why people thought that Cody would succeed is a mystery to me.

Pick #97 Zaviar Gooden, LB, Tennessee Titans - Gooden is a rather odd physical specimen.  With a 0.402 Kangaroo Score, and a 1.494 Agility, while running a shocking 4.46 forty yard dash, he is clearly gifted.  Still, his production in college was just good, not great.  He only averaged 5 TFL in his last two years, which is a bit poor, and doesn't suggest much of a violent attacking disposition.  He did have a fair number of interceptions though.  So, as a coverage type linebacker, who can run people down, he is still fairly appealing for a late 3rd round pick.

Pick #102 Josh Boyce, WR, New England Patriots - He's also in the list of interesting 2013 receivers.  Personally, I think he has an excellent chance to eventually become the top receiver on the team.  The fact that the Patriots' other receivers aren't very good aids in this.  I think there is also a reasonable probability that he will outperform Aaron Dobson (selected by the Patriots with the 59th pick).  One of my favorite 'Small' receivers in the draft.

Pick #124 Trevardo Williams, DE/OLB, Houston Texans - This pick could have a huge payoff, or amount to nothing. His measurables are nothing shocking, with a 0.309 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.002 Agility Score.  Combined with his smaller size, at just 241#, I would normally have to bet against him.  Still, he was a very productive pass rusher, averaging 14.25 TFL in his last two years.  This is one of those odd times where my gut battles with my computer.  I just like watching him play, so I'm kind of hoping the computer is wrong about him.

Pick #128 Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers - I've mentioned him before in the list of interesting 2013 wide receivers, so I'll keep this short.  He may not be as flashy as some guys, but he seems very solid.  A lot of people with gaudier 40 times were taken ahead of him, and are going to probably fare much worse.  Maybe he won't become a #1 type receiver, but I think he should become a dependable #2.  It made no sense for him to fall this far in the draft, while having bozos like Ace Sanders drafted ahead of him.

Pick #132 Devin Taylor, DE, Detroit Lions - From a physical perspective, Taylor is ideal.  Unfortunately, his production never lived up to this ability.  At 6'7", 266#, with a 1.346 Kangaroo Score and a 0.815 Agility Score, I would have expected him to average more than 8.5 TFL in his last two years in college, especially playing across from Jadeveon Clowney.  Still, for a late 4th round pick, his ability is quite enticing, as he at least has the physical potential to be great.  With the Lions loss of Cliff Avril and Lawrence Jackson, he also has a shot to get some playing time.

Pick #147 Steven Means, DE/OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm not really sold on Steven Means, but at this point in the draft it's not unreasonable to take some gambles.  Means had a 1.408 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.075 Agility Score, while averaging a rather mediocre 7.25 TFL in his last two years.  His measurables suggest he could do okay as a 4-3 DE, but his college production fails to excite me very much.

Pick #150 Terry Hawthorne, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers -  He has decent size at 5'11.25", 193#, and generally seems willing to play a fairly physical game.  His Ht/Spd Score of 1.026 is excellent, as is his 2nd Gear Score of 0.21, so keeping up with receivers shouldn't be a problem.  On the other hand, his Agility Score of -0.175, is slightly below average, and suggests he could have a harder time against nimbler receivers who run sharp routes.  In the end, I still think there is decent potential value in this pick.

Pick #170 Eric Kush, C, Kansas City Chiefs - This pretty much sums up my views on this subject.  He was the computer's favorite center prospect in the draft.

Pick #176 Dave Quessenberry, OT/OG, Houston Texans - At the very least, Quessenberry should provide good depth and flexibility to the Texans o-line.  Athletically he shows just decent explosiveness with a 0.351 Kangaroo Score, but has an excellent Agility Score of 1.234.  The numbers would suggest that he might be better suited to playing guard, though I can't rule out the possibility of him doing well at the tackle position.  This seems like a rather safe pick, that should help to keep a very good offensive line well stocked.

Pick #181 Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders - I should be more of a fan of this pick, based on his measurables, but when I watch him play it just doesn't click for me.  Still, I have to keep him on the radar, to see if the computer's hunch turns out to be correct.  You can see how he compares athletically to the other 2013 RBs here.

Pick #189 Mike James, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- I'm not going to say much here, since we'll probably never hear his name again.  His measurables were pretty good, though his college production was a bit anemic, since he always split carries with other backs.  I did enjoy watching him play though, and have to wonder if he could exceed people's expectations if given more of a chance.  Being stuck behind Doug Martin won't help the cause though.

Pick #198 Chris Jones, Houston Texans- His Kangaroo Score of -0.027 is merely average, but his Agility Score of 1.015 is simply excellent.  Combining that with his average number of tackles for a loss in his final two college years, of 16.5 per year, and you have a verrrrry intriguing player.  Seems well worth investing a late 6th round pick in a player like this, and could end up rewarding the Texans quite handsomely.

Pick #207 Mike Catapano, DE/OLB, Kansas City Chiefs - Every year their seems to be an odd duck like Catapano.  He's one of those guys who measures up as a potentially very interesting 3-4 OLB pass rusher, until you see the school that he came from, in this case Princeton.  Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about the Princeton issue, but I do have my doubts as to whether a team will give him much of a chance.  He had a 1.176 Kangaroo Score, and a 0.402 Agility Score, while averaging 12.75 TFL in his last two years.  Seems well suited to playing OLB in a 3-4.

Pick #216 Charles Johnson, WR, Green Bay Packers-  Johnson is probably on of the most physically gifted receivers in the whole draft class, and fits the mold of a conventional high end #1 receiver quite well.  His production at Grand Valley State was also quite good, so to some extent he lived up to his physical gifts.  Still, that is Grand Valley State, so it's not surprising that teams were nervous about selecting him.  Personally, I think this was a steal for the Packers, and though there is some risk, the potential reward is enormous.  I've mentioned him previously among the interesting wideouts of 2013, so you can see some comparisons to him in that post.  Why people let him fall this far, while taking the likely overrated Brian Quick (from the similarly goofy Appalachian State)in the second round of the 2012 draft, makes no sense.

Pick #223 Nicholas Williams, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers- At this point in the draft, I'm just happy if a player has some sort of potential.  Williams production in college was merely average (averaging 5.75 TFL in his final two years) , but his Kangaroo Score of 1.069 suggests he has some explosive power, and his Agility Score of 0.141 is at least in the average range.  It's a low risk, potentially decent reward type of pick.

Pick #235 Steve Beauharnais, LB, New England Patriots- I'm actually a bit of a fan of this player.  With a 0.899 Agility Score, and a -0.737 Kangaroo Score, he actually struck me as a reasonable prospect to play middle linebacker.  He was also quite productive in his time at Rutgers.  His 4.84 forty yard dash was somewhat concerning, though he improved this at his pro day to a 4.67 (if you can trust pro day results).  I think this pick could provide excellent value to the Patriots.

Pick #238 Aaron Mellette, WR, Baltimore Ravens-  I've already covered this subject, and my expectations aren't excessively high, but I can see the appeal of this pick.  It makes more sense than how the Ravens usually pick their receivers.

Undrafted Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Buffalo Bills - Like Charles Johnson, he arguably had the best combination of physical traits, and proven college production, among the 'Big' receivers in this draft.  Unlike Johnson, he had some proven success at a highly competitive college program (Tennessee).  Unfortunately, people also felt he had some character issues.  I had a high enough opinion of him to give him his own post.

Undrafted Eric Martin, DE/LB, New Orleans Saints - While he didn't get many opportunities at Nebraska, until his senior year, he made the most of his chances.  In his last year, he had 16.5 TFL, with 8.5 sacks, and was generally quite a menace to opposing QBs.  While his Kangaroo Score is only -1.094, this could be due to an odd imbalance when comparing his vertical jump to his broad jump.  Based on his broad jump, his Kangaroo Score would be closer to -0.553.  Though that is still well below what I am normally looking for, his Agility Score is an astounding 2.230 (the 3rd highest result I've ever seen), which suggest he could fit in amongst the high agility pass rushers.  Initially, I thought someone might try to move him to MLB, where his measurables are more favorable, but it looks like the Saints might give him a real shot as a pass rusher.  Considering their team's injuries, he has a legitimate shot at getting playing time.

Undrafted Paul Worrilow, LB Atlanta Falcons - I've already sung the praises of this oddball from Delaware.

Undrafted Ryan Spadola, WR, New York Jets - He's something of an oddball, coming from Lehigh University, but the computer like him a lot.  Though he's a bit of a longshot, I thought he deserved his own post.

Undrafted Cody Davis, S/CB, Rams - Athletically, Davis compares favorably to some of the elite cornerbacks in the league.  At 6'1", 204#, he has a Ht/Spd Score of 1.161, and an Agility Score of 0.899.  So, yes, he is big, fast, and agile.  He also averaged 90.5 tackles per year, in his four seasons at Texas Tech.  Unfortunately, a lot of this seemed to be in clean up duty for his teammates.  He also only produced 4 INTs in this time.  For a guy who will cost a team nothing to sign, he is a very intriguing and highly experienced player.

Undrafted Jayson DiManche, LB, Cincinnati Bengals - This is one of those prospects where the computer isn't as intrigued as I am.  At 6' 0.4", 231#, DiManche isn't exactly huge, and the computer penalizes him heavily because of this.  His Kangaroo Score of -0.027, and Agility Score of 0.127, are merely average.  The problem, in the eyes of the computer, is he lacks the mass to be a defensive end, and his agility would only be mediocre for a linebacker.  Still, if he could maintain his explosiveness (38" vertical jump, 10'7" broad jump) while gaining some weight, the computer's opinion would improve.  His 4.53 forty yard dash, was also fairly impressive.  Either way, I like the guy.  At Southern Illinois, he averaged 12.75 TFL in his last two years, and had 8 sacks as a senior.  Beyond all of that, he was just a fun and exciting player to watch.  Figuring out where to play him would seem to be the main obstacle.

Undrafted Glenn Foster, DT/DE, New Orleans Saints - In the computer's opinion, Foster is basically a somewhat shorter version of Mario Williams or J.J. Watt (6'3.5" vs. 6'7" and 6'5"), at least athletically.  With a 2.305 Kangaroo score, Foster shows absolutely shocking explosiveness and power, and his Agility Score of 1.300 is almost as remarkable.  Unfortunately his statistical production in college pales in comparison.  While Williams and Watt averaged 19.5 and 18.25 tackles for a loss in their final two college seasons, Foster only averaged 4.75.  Quite a big difference.  Still, an argument could be made that coming into college as a mere 255# DT, on an incredibly bad Illinois team, hindered his progress.  Playing now at 286#, he has not only filled out his frame, but is also moving to the 3-4 DE position, which might suit him better.  There is vast potential here, and no real risk for the Saints.

Undrafted Nick Driskill, S, Colts - I have no idea what will become of this guy, but his stats are cartoonishly ridiculous.  He deserved a post of his own, even if the odds are a bit stacked against him.

The 2013 Running Backs: For The Fantasy Football Dorks

For some reason I've never been able to get into fantasy football.  Betting on the short term results for a player just isn't my thing.  When I have played fantasy football, I tend to get too wrapped up in following the young prospects where I say "I swear this guy is going to be good one day", which isn't a great overall plan.  Somehow they don't award points for being right 'eventually'.  My tendency to get overly excited about mid-to-late round prospects, who I sometimes think are better than players taken in the 1st or 2nd round picks, is an equally suspect strategy.   The truth is that, for the most part, higher draft picks will be given the starting jobs, until they undeniably prove that they suck, and then the team will begrudgingly give the other guy a shot.

I also tend to be a bit apathetic about running backs.  It's not that I don't believe that some players are special.  I do.  I just don't particularly care if they are special, at least if it involves a high draft pick.  Building a solid offensive line, and handing the ball to the best mid-round sack of meat you can find is what I'm all about.  Teams actually seem to be coming around to this idea.  Umm, except for that Trent Richardson pick last year.  That was pretty stupid.  3rd overall pick?  Not a brilliant move for the Factory of Sadness.  Still, he'll probably turn out to be serviceable.

Despite all of this negativity, one of my friends is in a dynasty fantasy football league, so every year I go over the rookie numbers with him, and I figured I would put them up here as well.  Listed below is every running back taken in the 2013 draft, in the order they were selected.  It also shows their 40 time, 2nd Gear Score, Speed Score (speed relative to mass), Kangaroo Score (a measure of power), and Agility Score.  The Kangaroo Score and Agility Score are shown as the number of standard deviations that a player is above, or below, the average results for someone in their position group.  If you go to this post, you can compare these results to some of the more noteworthy players that are currently in the league.  It also gives a basic idea of what I think the scores translate to as far as predicting what the style of running back they are likely to become.  You generally can't expect a player to score well in all of these categories, but a good running back will probably do well in at least one or two areas.


Player                                Pick#       40-yd    2nd Gear      Spd. Score     Kangaroo    Agility

Giovani Bernard	37	4.50	0.06	98.5	-0.619	0.794
Le'Veon Bell	48	4.56	-0.04	106.3	0.324	0.770
Montee Ball	58	4.59	0.02	96.4	-0.412	-0.081
Eddie Lacy	61	4.64	0.01	99.6	0.323	-1.475
Christine Michael	62	4.43	0.06	114.2	1.839	1.657
Knile Davis	96	4.35	0.14	126.7	0.639	-0.205
Johnathan Franklin	125	4.46	0.08	103.6	-1.091	0.198
Marcus Lattimore	131	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Denard Robinson	135	4.34	0.21	112.1	-0.342	0.025
Stepfan Taylor	140	4.70	-0.06	87.7	-0.986	-1.017
Joseph Randle	151	4.59	0.01	91.9	-0.265	0.183
Christopher Thompson	154	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Zac Stacy	160	4.53	0.03	102.5	0.269	1.126
Mike Gillislee	164	4.48	0.09	103.2	-0.863	-0.654
Latavius Murray	181	4.38	0.10	121.1	0.958	0.220
Kenjon Barner	182	4.39	0.19	105.5	-0.683	0.618
Andre Ellington	187	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.713	N/A
Mike James	189	4.50	0.07	108.7	0.303	0.001
Rex Burkhead	190	4.65	-0.08	91.5	0.932	1.038
Spencer Ware	194	4.62	N/A	100.0	0.868	-0.597
Theo Riddick	199	4.66	-0.05	85.2	-1.070	-0.073
Jawan Jamison	228	4.62	0.01	89.1	-1.775	-2.235
Kerwynn Williams	230	4.44	0.13	100.3	-0.999	0.119
Michael Cox	253	4.58	-0.07	100.9	2.013	1.024

For the most part, I didn't think they 2013 class of running backs was very good.  Hell, the entire draft class, regardless of position, wasn't very good.  Still, there are a handful of players that might be interesting to people.  Since the highly drafted prospects have the advantage, I will mainly focus on them.  Being good, in this case, probably doesn't matter as much as being given an opportunity.

First of all, the computer's favorite prospect was probably Christine Michael.  His college stats weren't exceptional, since he didn't start that many games.  Mostly this was due to injury (torn ACL, broken leg), as well as some squabbling with his head coach as a senior.  Still, he is probably the most physically perfect running back in the class, and a highly entertaining player to watch.  Unfortunately, landing in Seattle, where he will be stuck behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, isn't going to help his value.  In time, I think things could turn out well for him.  For now, Seattle has some amazing running back depth.  At the very least, he should be fun to watch in the preseason.


The computer doesn't have high hopes for Giovani Bernard.  The numbers only suggest some moderate potential as a receiving option.  Still, he could turn out to be like LeSean McCoy, who he is very similar to athletically.  His Kangaroo Score suggests he'll probably get killed if he tries running between the tackles.  I'm just not seeing anything terribly special or unique here.  I think the 'law firm' will keep his job for one more year.

Le'Veon Bell had the best set of scores among the top picks, and seems fairly balanced athletically. Still, he didn't really excel in any area, except for being surprisingly nimble for a big guy.  His respectable Agility Score somewhat confirm his decent potential as a receiving option.  There is also the little issue of the Steelers' O-line being garbage.  He'll get carries, since he has no real competition, and accumulate stats, but I see only limited star potential.  Still, for fantasy purposes, he's probably worth paying attention to/picking up.  Probably the safest rookie RB to take.

Monte Ball is overrated, and fails in every athletic category.  Don't expect much from him.  Yes, his stats in college were gaudy, but the same could be said of every running back who comes out of Wisconsin.  The only thing in his favor is his draft position, and the Broncos' lack of RB talent.  Granted, those aren't insignificant factors.  He'll probably get the starting job, put up Mark Ingram type numbers, then they'll switch back to the mediocre Knowshon Moreno.


Eddie Lacy is a poor man's Shonn Greene.  Or maybe he is just Shonn Greene, which would be bad enough.  At best I would expect him to become a mediocre goal line/3rd down back.  Like Mark Ingram who went before him, I expect fans to be disappointed.  I should mention that Lacy's Kangaroo Score and Agility Score, are based on incomplete data.  I had his vertical jump, but not his broad jump, and I had his 3-cone time, but not his short shuttle time.  Honestly, this shouldn't matter too much though.

Knile Davis throws me for a loop.  The numbers suggest he could be quite excellent, though his constant fumbling appears to be an issue.  He had one highly productive college year, back in 2010, before injuring his knee, and hasn't been the same since then.  I probably wouldn't bet on him at this point, though he could get goal line carries.  Jamaal Charles is also a bit of an obstacle.

Johnathan Franklin measures up as a guy who could be a mediocre outside the tackle runner, who might also catch the ball.  His Kangaroo Score also suggests that he will crumple like a wet paper towel when he is tackled.  Behind a weak Packers' o-line, I wouldn't expect much of a small, fairly average RB, with no power.

I'll skip over Marcus Lattimore, since there isn't enough data.

As much as I would like to laugh at the prospect of Denard Robinson doing well, the numbers suggests it isn't completely ridiculous.  Still, he would only be an outside the tackles runner, and displays less agility than you would hope for a player of this type.  Considering MJD's presence, I wouldn't expect much here.

Zac Stacy is probably one of my favorite 2013 prospects, at least from a value perspective.  Athletically he is built to do it all, though his speed is only okay, as well as his between the tackles running power.  Still, he is athletically very versatile, sort of a poor man's Ray Rice.  He was also extremely productive in college, on a fairly bad Vanderbilt team (as if there were another type of Vanderbilt team).  Winding up with the Rams isn't that bad for him, since it gives him a real shot to emerge.  It seems like it will come down to either Stacy or Daryl Richardson, and I would lean towards Stacy winning the job.

Latavius Murray is a player where I have to disagree with the computer.  According to the numbers, he should be excellent.  He should be a good power running back with breakaway speed, according to the numbers, and that is basically what he was in college.  When I watch him play, he just seems stiff and runs too upright.  Still, as a late round guy to keep an eye on, he could be intriguing, depending on how he looks in the preseason.  Darren McFadden's presence limits his value, but if he gets hurt (as McFadden always does), Murray will become a hot commodity.

Rex Burkhead is very interesting, though he does suffer from an unfortunate birth defect that has hindered the careers of several other running backs.  The numbers say he is a true power back, which he is, but he also has some surprising agility.  He runs a bit upright sometimes, and doesn't have real breakaway speed, but can pound the ball quite effectively.  I doubt he'll get much of a chance, but he is someone to keep an eye on.  I like him more than Giovani Bernard, if that means anything, but Marvin Lewis isn't taking my calls.

I know I'm skipping over some guys here (bozos who will amount to nothing), but I have to say something about Michael Cox, before anyone freaks out.  Yes, according to the numbers he looks amazing.  Then you look up his college production and see that he only rushed for 807 yards, with a 3.6 avg as a senior (at UMass), with no previous stats at all.  It seems unlikely that he would amount to much, with that sort of history.

So, that is that.  I see a couple fairly mediocre prospects, and one or two talented guys who have the odds stacked against them due to their draft position, or their team's depth chart.  Still, there are some guys from the 2012 draft who haven't quite exploded onto the fantasy football scene.  While people are ready to scoop up Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris (still a bit surprised by this one), here are the results for the other guys who might still be surprises to some degree.


Player                               Pick#         40-yd     2nd Gear    Spd. Score   Kangaroo      Agility

David Wilson	32	4.38	0.15	111.9	1.176	0.364
Bernard Pierce	84	4.45	0.13	111.1	0.699	-0.129
Lamar Miller	97	4.34	0.19	119.5	0.071	0.857
Robert Turbin	106	4.42	0.15	116.3	0.790	-0.445
Terrance Ganaway	202	4.61	0.01	105.8	1.760	-0.218
Bryce Brown	229	4.48	0.08	110.7	0.273	0.212

No, these aren't shockingly obscure names, but they can still probably provide some value in fantasy football.  Overall, I think the 2012 class was much better when it came to running backs, but only time will tell.

David Wilson, while a bit of a straight line runner for my tastes, he has excellent overall athletic ability, and proven college production at a decent college program (Virginia Tech).  I would expect at least reasonable results from him.  Plus, he now has little in the way of competition, since Ahmad Bradshaw is gone.

Bernard Pierce is still probably just a handcuff to Ray Rice at this point, but a very physically gifted one. Might end up stealing goal line carries, since he is more suited to this size-wise than Rice is.

Lamar Miller was one of my favorite running backs from the 2012 draft.  Beyond just his productivity at Miami, he was the type of runner that was fun to watch.  I also think he has better receiving skills than people realize.  In his limited opportunities last year, he failed to disappoint, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, on 51 attempts.  He's starting to get some hype, but I think he could surpass every RB taken in the first 3 rounds in 2013 (except maybe Christine Michael).  Those might be lofty goals for a 4th round pick, but I think the sky is the limit for him.  He's a very talented and versatile guy.



Robert Turbin, like Christine Michael, is stuck in a very talented running back depth chart.  This is very frustrating for me.  Still, I figure he'll get a shot one day.  For a big guy, he's also a remarkably smooth receiver, though the numbers fail to suggest this ability. I anxiously await Marshawn Lynch tearing an ACL, so I can watch Turbin and Christine Michael pummel the NFC West.  Maybe that is a bit harsh...

Please don't laugh at my inclusion of Terrance Ganaway on this list.  I just see him as a useful power back, who in the right situation could be a goal line weapon.  As a goal-line counterpart to Zac Stacy, I wouldn't be surprised if he did fairly well.

As for Bryce Brown, well, he's fairly solid across the board, though none of the numbers really scream at you.  Honestly, I am just waiting for him to do something which will announce to the world that he is insane, which I think is a strong possibility.  His behavior in college suggests a rather monstrous ego.  I would expect Chip Kelly to run the ball quite a bit more than Andy Reid did, and Brown is built to take a beating, at least more so than McCoy.

Like I said, fantasy football isn't something I get into, but maybe some of this would be interesting to people who do follow it.  Trusting my judgment will probably just lead to having a team full of oddballs who might not pan out for a few years, so use your best judgment.  While you dorks are playing Dungeons & Dragons football, I'll be busy playing with spreadsheets like the cool kids do.  Chicks dig spreadsheets, right?

Jamie Collins: Future Star?

I figured I would continue to mention a few players that I am excited about, who haven't become household names yet, while things are still quiet in the NFL world.  Some may fail to become anything, but all of them have the sort of rare athleticism (surprise!) or production, that should give them an excellent chance at success.

Jamie Collins was a defensive end/outside linebacker, who played at Southern Miss.  He was drafted with the 52nd pick, in 2013, by the Patriots.  He averaged 19.75 tackles for a loss in his last two years in college, and is an absolute physical freak.  Here is how he compares to some of the other alleged pass rushers who were selected ahead of him.

Player                         Weight      Kang. Score    Agility Score      Total      Avg. TFL   Pick #

Jamie Collins	250	2.099	0.355	1.266	19.75	52
Dion Jordan	248	-0.216	0.426	0.021	11.75	3
Ziggy Ansah	271	0.894	0.502	0.628	13*	5
Barkevious Mingo	241	0.395	0.566	0.430	11.75	6
Jarvis Jones	245	-1.243	-1.304	-1.216	22	17
Bjoern Werner	266	-0.280	-0.251	-0.220	14.5	24

I can't say that Jamie Collins will become the best NFL player on this list.  All I can say is that he was the most athletically gifted and productive player on this list.  Barkevious Mingo and Ziggy Ansah have respectable numbers too (though Ansah's TFL numbers came from just one year), so I wouldn't write either of them off.  Ansah could actually be quite a strong candidate for success, with only a lack of experience/production  holding him back in the eyes of the computer.  Jamie's Kangaroo Score is what really steals the show.  You're not going to find many players who are that explosive.  Depending on how things play out, there could be some GMs that will have to explain why their physically inferior and less productive pass rushers seemed like better bets.


Overall, 2013 didn't strike me as a terribly good year for pass rushers, despite some of the hype that surrounded certain players.  Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, and Bjoern Werner all strike me as likely candidates to become disappointments.  That might seem harsh, but it would fit the typical failure rate for these positions.  Today's shining hope, is tomorrow's bum.  One other player, who was a very exciting and productive pass rusher, is Cornelius Carradine, but he couldn't perform at the combine or his pro day, so I won't say much about his career outlook.

You can also look here for a general overview of how these scores compare to some of the explosive linebackers and defensive ends that are already established in the NFL.  According to my normal methods for these things, I would have had to give Jamie Collins a first round grade.  He has the athleticism, and he had the required production.  The computer suggests he was the safest pass rushing prospect in the draft.  Not necessarily the best, just the safest.  He may not become the next James Harrison or Demarcus Ware, but I think the likelihood of him busting is very low.  In many ways, when I've watched him play, he strikes me as more of a 4-3 OLB, as he doesn't look quite as powerful or violent as a player like Carradine when he is rushing the QB.  Still, I'll go along with the computer, since nobody else in the first two rounds really interested me nearly as much as Collins (at least among the pass rushers). Anyone who wants to laugh at that ludicrous theory is free to.  We'll see what happens.  Maybe the computer is having a bad year.

While the computer would suggest a first round grade for him, I think getting him in the second works out much better, and makes more sense.  One of the issues for Collins is his playing weight.  In college he played at about 240# before bulking up to 250# for the combine.  If he were to drop back to 240, he might not have the weight to bull rush, which is what his Kangaroo Score suggests he is suited to do.  He also might not really have the sort of exceptional agility that you normally see amongst successful lightweight pass rushers (it's good, just not exceptional).  Lighter pass rushers really need to be fairly nimble to avoid getting mauled by offensive tackles.  Staying up around 250# or so, could be important for his success, as well as embracing the bull rush a bit more than he seems to have done in college.  He seemed to run around blockers a bit more than I would like to see, when playing at Southern Miss.  It's not that he can't continue to do this.  It's just that I think he would do better if he embraced the lower body power that he seems to possess.

His tendency, from the little bit I've seen of him, to try to avoid blockers, or to just beat them at the snap, isn't necessarily a bad thing at all.  If it works, go with it.  Still, not taking better advantage of the one truly exceptional physical trait he has, explosive power, is something of a concern for me.  It may seem stupid to want him to attack opponents head on, rather than going around them, but the numbers suggest he could do very well at this.  If you are big, play big.  If you are fast, play fast.  If you are agile, then use those nimble toes of yours.  Unfortunately, sometimes there are players who seem to try to play as if they are imitating the style of someone else, rather than embracing what they do best.  These peculiar situations could also be due to coaches, who just want things done a particular way, rather than seeing that a player's style is better suited for something else (this happens a lot, I believe).  Square peg, round hole.  Regardless, I do like Collins as a prospect, and getting him in the 2nd round, rather than the 1st, quells pretty much all of my concerns, from an investment/risk perspective.

Sometimes, when all the draft hoopla is at its craziest, people get a bit carried away with tagging certain prospects as future Pro Bowlers, and forget how often these things don't work out.  You can never really know for sure what a player will do with their talents.  I prefer to look at players in terms of the risks they present, rather than the potential rewards.  If you can draft seven guys who all have a good floor, things should work out pretty well for you.  One or two may even become exceptional.  Jamie Collins would seem to fit that criteria.  Worst case?  He becomes an adequate role player.  Best case?  His exceptional athleticism lets him become one of the better pass rushers in the league.  I'll take that deal every single time.

Da'Rick Rogers: Dead hookers in his trunk?

One of the more interesting stories, from the 2013 NFL Draft, was that of wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers.  Rogers started out at Tennessee before getting kicked out for failed drug tests (supposedly for marijuana use), and perhaps being a bit of a diva/a**hole, then transferred to Tennessee Tech for his junior year.  Many people seemed to feel that he had first round talent, but his personal issues appear to have been responsible for why he went undrafted.  Still, he did eventually get picked up as a undrafted free agent by the Buffalo Bills.

The baggage that he brought with him was fairly well known, so many people thought he would drop to somewhere around the third round.  My computer knew nothing of his issues, and felt he was one of the safer bets in the draft.  When nobody selected him at all, speculation mounted that his personal issues might be more significant than had been previously stated.  After all, NFL GMs wouldn't let a possibly exceptional talent slip through their fingers for no good reason.  Surely, their investigators found the bodies of dead prostitutes in the trunk of his car.  Or, perhaps, they uncovered his involvement in a deer antler smuggling ring.  Unfortunately, details of such misdeeds have not come to light, and as far as we know, he is really just a run of the mill diva and pothead.

The most peculiar thing about this is that Tyrann Mathieu, cornerback from LSU, managed to be selected in the third round, despite a much more thoroughly documented history of idiocy, and a less impressive overall skill-set.  Somehow, a 5'8.5" corner, with just average to good measurables, doesn't scare teams as much, despite failing so many drug tests that he lost track of the exact count.  I still think that Mathieu's main contribution in the NFL is going to be as a kick/punt returner, not as a cornerback.  The idea that this is more valuable than a potential #1 wide receiver seems quite odd to me.

The somewhat unpredictable way in which a player's character is judged isn't really my concern though.  If I was going to judge people based on whether they smoked weed or acted like idiots when they were in college, I wouldn't have many people to talk to nowadays.  I kind of expect college kids to be a bit arrogant and intoxicated.  So, until I hear of something a bit more damning, I will remain optimistic that Da'Rick is no worse of a moron than any other average 20 year old.

The real question for me is, what is his upside, and who does he best compare to that has succeeded in the NFL?  To this question, I think there are 2 players in particular that might provide some interesting insight into Rogers' potential.

Player                 Height              Weight        Wt/40       Kangaroo     Agility    Tot. Athletic

Da'Rick Rogers	6' 2.5"	217	0.403	1.536	1.065	1.052
Mike Williams	6' 1.5"	221	0.379	1.147	0.138	1.030
Hakeem Nicks	6' 1"	212	0.180	0.487	-0.858	0.518

The reasons I selected Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) and Hakeem Nicks for this comparison might not, at first, be immediately obvious.  Yes, in terms of height and weight, they are in a similar class, but the similarities go much further than that.  For one, their 40 times were 4.50, 4.53, and 4.51 (in order of Rogers, Williams an Nicks), which are the sorts of numbers that often fail to excite the masses.  For their size, however, these times are perfectly adequate, and the Wt/40 score shows how many standard deviations above or below average their results are for their size.  Nicks and Williams had better 10 yard splits of 1.52 seconds, with a 2nd gear Score (not shown above) of  0.01 and -0.01 respectively.  Rogers had a somewhat below average 10 yard split of 1.61 seconds, but a 2nd Gear Score of 0.11.  So, Nicks and Williams might be a little quicker off the line, but Rogers should continue to build more speed than the other two. 

They also all show some mixture of explosiveness/power, according to their Kangaroo Score (in my opinion an important trait for large receivers), and perhaps a decent measure of agility.  The Kangaroo Score isn't just about overpowering the opponent, but also probably suggests something about a player's explosion out of his cuts in his routes.  Rogers also possesses a degree of agility that is quite uncommon among large receivers.  Though this sort of agility is more of a requirement for small receivers, it certainly can't hurt for a big guy to have it.  Of course, none of this means that a players can actually catch the ball.  So for that, I'll look to their college stats.

Player                                                   Yards             Recs.      % of offense     TDs   Stat Scr

Da'Rick Rogers	Next to last year	1040	67	26.05	9	0.454
	Final Year	893	61	19.92	10
Mike Williams	Next to last year	837	60	23.89	10	0.180
	Final Year*	746	49	18.80	6
Hakeem Nicks	Next to last year	958	74	24.53	5	1.023
	Final Year	1222	68	29.24	12

The average draftable receiver is responsible for 15.34% of his team's passing offense in his next to last year in college, and 17.75% in his final year.  All three of these players significantly exceeded this average.  In Mike Williams' case, his numbers for his final year would have been even better, but he was kicked off his team (Syracuse) after 7 games.  Da'Rick, similarly would have probably done better in his final year, but his QB was injured for the final 4 games, dropping his yard per game average from 102 yards/game to 59 yards/game. What is most impressive to me, is the 26.05% of his team's offense that he was responsible for, while still only a sophomore (especially in the SEC).  Large receivers tend to develop as players a bit more slowly, but Rogers seemed to really hit the ground running.  While Rogers and Williams scored better athletically, Nicks gains ground in terms of overall college production, according to his Stat Score.   Either way, they are all very appealing receivers.

All three of these players exhibit a combination of physical ability and proven production that is somewhat rare.  Players with these traits tend to be fairly safe bets, but sometimes teams seem to out-think themselves and let extraneous issues cloud there judgment as to what actually matters.  Similar to Rogers, Mike Williams had some character concerns, and fell to the 4th round in the 2010 draft, but has been performing quite admirably since then.  In his rookie year, Williams led all rookie receivers with 964 yards and 11 TDs.  What does that say about his immaturity issues?  While I can understand having some hesitation at the prospect of drafting players with added baggage, what I don't understand is how you can pass on them once the investment/risk of an early round selection is no longer a concern.  Is that backup middle linebacker or potential special teams player that was selected in the fifth round really that much more appealing than Da'Rick Rogers, a player with more upside?



Maybe Rogers' issues from his college days will continue to plague him, whatever those issues may be.  I just don't see why teams were so scared of selecting him.  If he behaves like an idiot, fine.  Squeeze whatever production you can get out of him, and let him move on when his insignificant rookie contract is up.  There's no real loss or risk to the team.  On the other hand, if he pans out, what do you say then?  How would a GM admit that they weren't willing to invest even a 5th round pick, that had almost no real value or likelihood of amounting to anything, because they wanted to make a "safer" pick on some guy who will most likely be cut in 2-3 years, and probably will never have any role beyond a special teams contributor?

In the end, I think it is somewhat unlikely that Da'Rick Rogers won't become at least an average receiver, though average by my standards is still somewhat rare and valuable.  While people may want to obsess over his personality and character, it seems only fair to me that they should also look at what he has accomplished.  If catching the football 139 times, while some 'roided-up lunatic tries to impale you with their helmet, doesn't say something about your character and dedication, then I don't know what does.   I certainly wouldn't want to do it, but then again I hang out with a bunch of people who smoked weed in college and acted like a**holes, so maybe I'm a questionable character.