It's because of trying times like this, that I generally post my thoughts a day after an event has occurred. I find it is best to get a good night's sleep to clear my head before going off on some rant about how a team is being run by REDACTED REDACTED individuals. The last thing I want is for my temper to cause me to say something that I will regret about some REDACTED questionable decisions that the Ravens, or any other team, may have made.
Still, I really have to wonder what the Ravens have been thinking during the past couple of days. The idea that they employ an 'Analytics Department' strikes me as laughably REDACTED. Out of the nine players they selected in the 2014 draft, there were only two that I think have a significant chance of performing at a reasonably high level. No, I'm definitely not talking about C.J. Mosley or Timmy Jernigan. The players that they chose which interest me most are John Urschel and Michael Campanaro, who the team selected with two of their last three selections. So, maybe Ravens fans have that to look forward to in three years when they are finally given a chance to play. You didn't really think that competing for a starting job in training camp was a real thing did you? No, the starting jobs will almost always go to the highest drafted players, regardless of whether they deserve them or not.
The saddest, and possibly most cover up story, from this draft may end up being the Ravens decision to exploit cheap third-world labor, to fill out their roster. Drafting Canadian born John Urschel and Brent Urban, suggests a potentially disturbing collapse of ethics on the part of the Ravens organization. I can understand how being able to dangle the threat of deportation over these young players, and the dread they must feel about returning home to slave away in cold poutine mines, might give a player added motivation to perform, but it just doesn't seem right to me. Hopefully whatever wealth these players can scrape together will go towards buying their families' way out of the harsh Canadian gulags that they undoubtedly dwell in. Oh, we want our ham (that's bacon, for our north of the border readers), but we don't want to know where it comes from. Personally, I find this exploitation of a simple backwoods people to be deplorable.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Day 2: Umm...WTF?
Well, so far things seem to be going according to plan for Team Kangaroo. The players we wanted seem to be falling to us. I'm not sure if that is a good thing, or whether it says something horrible about the prospects we chose to target. Now I just have to hope that our plan wasn't an incredibly stupid one.
Predictably, our first pick was Joel Bitonio, and I'm sure I'll get scolded by people for "reaching" here, but it's a pick I'm happy with. I would have preferred to trade back, but I have no say in this. When our second pick rolled around, the top 3 remaining prospects on our Little Big Board were Kareem Martin, Cody Latimer, and Allen Robinson, and I really wasn't planning to take a wideout, but plans change. When Ozzie selected Timmy Jernigan (seriously, WTF?), who I have little faith in, my willingness to take a gamble went up a bit. Actually, it went up a whole lot, as we selected Cody Latimer, who I've had a strange fascination with despite missing some data on him. This pick is making me fairly nervous, and I suspect Allen Robinson would have been the safer option, at least among the available receivers. Despite those concerns, when the 3rd round came up, and Kareem Martin was still available (who I would have probably been willing to take in the 1st round, if I had to), I was ecstatic.
One strange little factor in this series of events was the trade that the Cowboys made in the 2nd round, where they sent their 2nd and 3rd round picks to the Redskins. As far as I could tell, from looking at pre-draft team visits, I felt that the Cowboys were probably one of the main suitors for Kareem Martin. When they were no longer a threat, as they picked just ahead of the Ravens in both rounds before trading those picks away, the chances of Kareem Martin taking a tumble and falling into my lap went up quite a bit. Or maybe I'm hallucinating, and just got lucky. I really have no idea, but it surprised me that it worked out this way. Now, I just need for Martin to not suck. That would be nice.
Maybe things are going horribly for us, and I just don't know it yet. Either way, I'm just happy we haven't pulled a Da'Rick Rogers yet, and selected someone with a high pick, only to see them go undrafted. We seemed to have a lot of those sorts of picks last year. It was a bit embarrassing, so it's a pleasant surprise to see that this hasn't occurred yet. Still, as we move into the later rounds, I'm sure our picks will become a bit more ridiculous. I'm bound to do something harebrained at any moment.
While I'm mystified by the picks that Ozzie Newsome is making, he's far from the only GM who is doing their best to confuse me. I'm particularly stunned by the way certain teams with really poor offensive lines appear to be doing very little to protect their quarterbacks. The Giants, Steelers and Ravens, in particular, seem intent on getting their QBs killed, though there are still some good linemen available. I'm really curious to see which of these teams makes some moves to address this issue with their remaining picks.
To some degree, I also like to follow what the Seahawks organization is doing, as they tend to be an interesting group that goes off the beaten path a bit. Still, I was a bit shocked when they selected Paul Richardson. While I respect the Seahawks decision makers, at least more than I do many of the other teams, Richardson still strikes me as a huge risk. More than anything else, I would be afraid that his skinny 175# frame will end up resulting in frequent injuries. I'm not trying to jinx him, but it would scare the hell out of me. Considering the team's history with players like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, I would have thought durability would be a bigger concern.
Oh well, onward to Day 3...
Predictably, our first pick was Joel Bitonio, and I'm sure I'll get scolded by people for "reaching" here, but it's a pick I'm happy with. I would have preferred to trade back, but I have no say in this. When our second pick rolled around, the top 3 remaining prospects on our Little Big Board were Kareem Martin, Cody Latimer, and Allen Robinson, and I really wasn't planning to take a wideout, but plans change. When Ozzie selected Timmy Jernigan (seriously, WTF?), who I have little faith in, my willingness to take a gamble went up a bit. Actually, it went up a whole lot, as we selected Cody Latimer, who I've had a strange fascination with despite missing some data on him. This pick is making me fairly nervous, and I suspect Allen Robinson would have been the safer option, at least among the available receivers. Despite those concerns, when the 3rd round came up, and Kareem Martin was still available (who I would have probably been willing to take in the 1st round, if I had to), I was ecstatic.
One strange little factor in this series of events was the trade that the Cowboys made in the 2nd round, where they sent their 2nd and 3rd round picks to the Redskins. As far as I could tell, from looking at pre-draft team visits, I felt that the Cowboys were probably one of the main suitors for Kareem Martin. When they were no longer a threat, as they picked just ahead of the Ravens in both rounds before trading those picks away, the chances of Kareem Martin taking a tumble and falling into my lap went up quite a bit. Or maybe I'm hallucinating, and just got lucky. I really have no idea, but it surprised me that it worked out this way. Now, I just need for Martin to not suck. That would be nice.
Maybe things are going horribly for us, and I just don't know it yet. Either way, I'm just happy we haven't pulled a Da'Rick Rogers yet, and selected someone with a high pick, only to see them go undrafted. We seemed to have a lot of those sorts of picks last year. It was a bit embarrassing, so it's a pleasant surprise to see that this hasn't occurred yet. Still, as we move into the later rounds, I'm sure our picks will become a bit more ridiculous. I'm bound to do something harebrained at any moment.
While I'm mystified by the picks that Ozzie Newsome is making, he's far from the only GM who is doing their best to confuse me. I'm particularly stunned by the way certain teams with really poor offensive lines appear to be doing very little to protect their quarterbacks. The Giants, Steelers and Ravens, in particular, seem intent on getting their QBs killed, though there are still some good linemen available. I'm really curious to see which of these teams makes some moves to address this issue with their remaining picks.
To some degree, I also like to follow what the Seahawks organization is doing, as they tend to be an interesting group that goes off the beaten path a bit. Still, I was a bit shocked when they selected Paul Richardson. While I respect the Seahawks decision makers, at least more than I do many of the other teams, Richardson still strikes me as a huge risk. More than anything else, I would be afraid that his skinny 175# frame will end up resulting in frequent injuries. I'm not trying to jinx him, but it would scare the hell out of me. Considering the team's history with players like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, I would have thought durability would be a bigger concern.
Oh well, onward to Day 3...
Friday, May 9, 2014
Day 1: Well...that happened
I figured I would just throw out some quick thoughts on the first day of the 2014 NFL Draft, though the bulk of my deranged ranting and raving will come later.
So, let me see if I've got this straight. The Ravens drafted Arthur Brown last year in the 2nd round. Actually, they traded away a 5th and 6th round pick to move up and select Arthur Brown. Now, they have selected C.J. Mosley in the 1st round, to play the same position. That means 4 total draft picks have been spent, to fill one position that is of increasingly less value in the modern NFL. Unless they have some brilliant plan to get both of them playing time, this pretty much guarantees that at least one of them won't get on the field enough, before his rookie contract expires, to justify these investments. Personally, I'm not a fan of either linebacker. I can't say that either of them is doomed to be a failure, but in the eyes of the computer both appear to be mediocrities with little upside. Supposedly, the Ravens viewed Mosley as one of the top 10 prospects in the entire draft, which suggests to me that they may have lost their minds.
Everybody knew the Panthers were going to have to select some wide receivers. What I don't understand is why they chose Kelvin Benjamin, who's profile suggests extreme bust potential. There were at least a half dozen other wideouts who would have been safer bets, so I have to assume that the Panthers were just swept away by Benjamin's ridiculous physical dimensions. In my eyes, Benjamin is an older WR prospect, who only had one decent (not great, just decent) year of statistical production, poor athletic measurables, and potentially unreliable hands. I stand by my previous statement, that whichever team selected Benjamin should check the GM for signs of dementia.
I can't complain too much about Anthony Barr, as the computer did give him a first round grade, but going to the Vikings strikes me as a less than ideal landing spot. Supposedly, they intend to use him as a 4-3 defensive end, which worries me a bit. I still think he does better in space, and feel he is better suited as a 3-4 OLB, or even better, as a 4-3 OLB (which is also a possibility in Minnesota). As a 4-3 DE, I think he could end up getting buried by opposing offensive tackles. This isn't necessarily a terrible pick. I just have some concerns as to how the team plans to use him.
I can understand why people might think that pairing Mike Evans with Vincent Jackson seems like an awesome idea, but I'm not sure that I buy into this theory. If Tampa really wanted a wideout, I would have preferred to see them pick up a guy with a different set of skills. Preferably someone who is a bit more quick and nimble, and who can get open quickly. Honestly, I thought Tampa would go after DT Aaron Donald, but evidently they weren't interested. We'll see what happens.
Now that I really look at how things unfolded, there really appears to have been way too many weird/questionable decisions being made in the 1st round this year. I'll try to get into the rest of this mess in the upcoming days.
So, let me see if I've got this straight. The Ravens drafted Arthur Brown last year in the 2nd round. Actually, they traded away a 5th and 6th round pick to move up and select Arthur Brown. Now, they have selected C.J. Mosley in the 1st round, to play the same position. That means 4 total draft picks have been spent, to fill one position that is of increasingly less value in the modern NFL. Unless they have some brilliant plan to get both of them playing time, this pretty much guarantees that at least one of them won't get on the field enough, before his rookie contract expires, to justify these investments. Personally, I'm not a fan of either linebacker. I can't say that either of them is doomed to be a failure, but in the eyes of the computer both appear to be mediocrities with little upside. Supposedly, the Ravens viewed Mosley as one of the top 10 prospects in the entire draft, which suggests to me that they may have lost their minds.
Everybody knew the Panthers were going to have to select some wide receivers. What I don't understand is why they chose Kelvin Benjamin, who's profile suggests extreme bust potential. There were at least a half dozen other wideouts who would have been safer bets, so I have to assume that the Panthers were just swept away by Benjamin's ridiculous physical dimensions. In my eyes, Benjamin is an older WR prospect, who only had one decent (not great, just decent) year of statistical production, poor athletic measurables, and potentially unreliable hands. I stand by my previous statement, that whichever team selected Benjamin should check the GM for signs of dementia.
I can't complain too much about Anthony Barr, as the computer did give him a first round grade, but going to the Vikings strikes me as a less than ideal landing spot. Supposedly, they intend to use him as a 4-3 defensive end, which worries me a bit. I still think he does better in space, and feel he is better suited as a 3-4 OLB, or even better, as a 4-3 OLB (which is also a possibility in Minnesota). As a 4-3 DE, I think he could end up getting buried by opposing offensive tackles. This isn't necessarily a terrible pick. I just have some concerns as to how the team plans to use him.
I can understand why people might think that pairing Mike Evans with Vincent Jackson seems like an awesome idea, but I'm not sure that I buy into this theory. If Tampa really wanted a wideout, I would have preferred to see them pick up a guy with a different set of skills. Preferably someone who is a bit more quick and nimble, and who can get open quickly. Honestly, I thought Tampa would go after DT Aaron Donald, but evidently they weren't interested. We'll see what happens.
Now that I really look at how things unfolded, there really appears to have been way too many weird/questionable decisions being made in the 1st round this year. I'll try to get into the rest of this mess in the upcoming days.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Last Minute Thoughts
I've been sorting through the spreadsheets for the different position groups, and trying to make some last minute updates. This year seems to have been worse than any I can remember as far as data becoming available to the public. Regardless, I'm slowly making minor mental adjustments to where I suspect certain player will be taken, and where Team Kangaroo will have to pounce in order to get the players we want.
Unfortunately, some of the players that I thought were very interesting, at least early on in this process, seem to be moving up peoples' draft boards, past the point where I would probably take them. Phillip Gaines? Probably not a huge bargain anymore. Cody Latimer? Getting a bit too expensive. Deone Buchanon? I'm still interested, but questioning the value. Of course, I'm mostly basing my speculation on how high certain players will be taken, by how many teams have invited them in for visits, so who knows what will really happen?
On the other hand, some prospects seem to be getting ignored a fair bit. There's been hardly any talk about Joel Bitonio. Kareem Martin rarely seems to get mentioned, and seems to have had few visits with teams. Maybe he will slip a bit, and fall into my clutches? Kevin Pierre-Louis, similarly seems to have attracted minimal attention, and might be available even later than I anticipated, allowing me to wait a bit. Then there is the weird situation with Garrett Scott, who is easily the most physically gifted offensive lineman in the entire draft. I was completely unaware of him until a few days ago, and information is rather spotty, but he certainly seems intriguing. Still I can find very little information on him, which makes me wonder what the real story is here.
The more I look at the potential outcomes of this draft, the more I suspect that I will probably pass on all of the wide receivers this year. It's not that I don't like them. For the most part, I rather like the top receiving prospects, even if I think most of them have certain flaws which might limit their upside. In the end, I just don't think any of them are going to be available late enough to present a great situation to swoop in and get a great deal on any of them. Instead, I get the feeling that Team Kangaroo will be going a bit heavy on somewhat peculiar defensive players this year.
As for my nemesis, the Ravens, I'm really hoping they do something obscenely stupid with their top picks. It would just make my job easier. The best way to make it look like I know what I'm talking about, is for Ozzie Newsome to take a dive (Please take Kelvin Benjamin!). Based upon the lists of players that they have supposedly met with, the likelihood of this happening is probably very high. The possibility of their trading back a few slots, strikes me as pretty strong, and probably a great move for them, as well as for Team Kangaroo.
Among the players that the Ravens have met with, there are a handful that really seem to fit the mold of a Ravens' pick, for better or for worse. Mike Davis (WR from Texas), seems like a classic Ozzie pick, in the sense that he measures up as a mediocrity in almost every statistical/athletic category, while possessing a stat sheet that superficially appears more impressive than it really is. The Ravens love picking this type of receiver in the mid rounds (Hello, Tandon Doss!), and typically have gotten terrible results from such decisions. Chris Borland (LB from Wisconsin) seems to have gotten a lot of attention from the organization. Personally, I don't think the upside is that high with Borland, but I wouldn't make fun of such a pick. Borland seems like a lot of the linebackers that the Ravens have taken in the past, and squeezed good mileage out of. Gabe Jackson (guard from Mississippi State) fits the mauling behemoth type of linemen that Ozzie seems to crave, though I think he will probably be taken too high for the Ravens to get him. Finally, we have Logan Thomas (QB from Virginia Tech). Personally I don't see the appeal in taking Thomas, but would be somewhat shocked if the Ravens didn't strongly pursue him anyway. The team has a rather stubborn streak when it comes to drafting athletic QBs, with questionable passing skills (Troy Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Harris, Kyle Boller), and they seem to have paid greater attention to Thomas than virtually any other team. I foresee a wasted draft pick here. I might also put a five dollar bet on them going after Terrance West (RB from Towson) who I am also feeling a bit pessimistic about.
Weird things will happen. Chaos will reign. How it will all play out, nobody really knows. I just plan on being in a semi-vegetative state for the next few days.
Unfortunately, some of the players that I thought were very interesting, at least early on in this process, seem to be moving up peoples' draft boards, past the point where I would probably take them. Phillip Gaines? Probably not a huge bargain anymore. Cody Latimer? Getting a bit too expensive. Deone Buchanon? I'm still interested, but questioning the value. Of course, I'm mostly basing my speculation on how high certain players will be taken, by how many teams have invited them in for visits, so who knows what will really happen?
On the other hand, some prospects seem to be getting ignored a fair bit. There's been hardly any talk about Joel Bitonio. Kareem Martin rarely seems to get mentioned, and seems to have had few visits with teams. Maybe he will slip a bit, and fall into my clutches? Kevin Pierre-Louis, similarly seems to have attracted minimal attention, and might be available even later than I anticipated, allowing me to wait a bit. Then there is the weird situation with Garrett Scott, who is easily the most physically gifted offensive lineman in the entire draft. I was completely unaware of him until a few days ago, and information is rather spotty, but he certainly seems intriguing. Still I can find very little information on him, which makes me wonder what the real story is here.
The more I look at the potential outcomes of this draft, the more I suspect that I will probably pass on all of the wide receivers this year. It's not that I don't like them. For the most part, I rather like the top receiving prospects, even if I think most of them have certain flaws which might limit their upside. In the end, I just don't think any of them are going to be available late enough to present a great situation to swoop in and get a great deal on any of them. Instead, I get the feeling that Team Kangaroo will be going a bit heavy on somewhat peculiar defensive players this year.
As for my nemesis, the Ravens, I'm really hoping they do something obscenely stupid with their top picks. It would just make my job easier. The best way to make it look like I know what I'm talking about, is for Ozzie Newsome to take a dive (Please take Kelvin Benjamin!). Based upon the lists of players that they have supposedly met with, the likelihood of this happening is probably very high. The possibility of their trading back a few slots, strikes me as pretty strong, and probably a great move for them, as well as for Team Kangaroo.
Among the players that the Ravens have met with, there are a handful that really seem to fit the mold of a Ravens' pick, for better or for worse. Mike Davis (WR from Texas), seems like a classic Ozzie pick, in the sense that he measures up as a mediocrity in almost every statistical/athletic category, while possessing a stat sheet that superficially appears more impressive than it really is. The Ravens love picking this type of receiver in the mid rounds (Hello, Tandon Doss!), and typically have gotten terrible results from such decisions. Chris Borland (LB from Wisconsin) seems to have gotten a lot of attention from the organization. Personally, I don't think the upside is that high with Borland, but I wouldn't make fun of such a pick. Borland seems like a lot of the linebackers that the Ravens have taken in the past, and squeezed good mileage out of. Gabe Jackson (guard from Mississippi State) fits the mauling behemoth type of linemen that Ozzie seems to crave, though I think he will probably be taken too high for the Ravens to get him. Finally, we have Logan Thomas (QB from Virginia Tech). Personally I don't see the appeal in taking Thomas, but would be somewhat shocked if the Ravens didn't strongly pursue him anyway. The team has a rather stubborn streak when it comes to drafting athletic QBs, with questionable passing skills (Troy Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Harris, Kyle Boller), and they seem to have paid greater attention to Thomas than virtually any other team. I foresee a wasted draft pick here. I might also put a five dollar bet on them going after Terrance West (RB from Towson) who I am also feeling a bit pessimistic about.
Weird things will happen. Chaos will reign. How it will all play out, nobody really knows. I just plan on being in a semi-vegetative state for the next few days.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
The 2014 Little Big Board
Well, we are getting closer to the big day. While NFL teams finish arranging their Big Boards of NFL draft prospects, I thought it was time for Team Kangaroo to throw together our Little Big Board, in preparation for the 2014 Ozzie Newsome Challenge. While NFL teams may have around 150-200 prospects that they would consider selecting, our list is noticeably shorter with only 56 prospects that we have some degree of serious interest in acquiring. We're just going to be a bit more selective, and choose to take a pass on a lot of the prospects that are out there. I suspect these players won't be too offended by what I think.
As we proceed on our drunken vision quest, we must brace ourselves for the perils that lie ahead. The possibility of failure is great. The potential for embarrassment is always on my mind. The only thing we can do is to have faith in the numbers, and meditate on our spirit animal for guidance.
1st Round
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Joel Bitonio, OT/G, Nevada *
Jason Verrett, CB, TCU*
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.*
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina*
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
2nd Round
Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana*
Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State*
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St.
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington St.*
Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice*
Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi St.
Rashede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
3rd Round
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College*
Carl Bradford, DE/OLB, Arizona St.*
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno St.
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB/S, Nebraska
Jackson Jeffcoat, DE/OLB, Texas
Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
4th Round
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor*
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern*
Andre Williams, RB, Boston College*
James Gayle, DE, Virginia Tech*
Charles Leno, OT/G, Boise St.
Christian Kirksey, LB, Iowa
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
5th Round
Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State*
Gabe Ikard, C, Oklahoma*
Garrett Scott, OT/OG, Marshall
Matt Patchan, OT, Boston College
Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame
John Urschel, OG/C, Penn State
Travis Carrie, CB/S, Ohio
Bennett Jackson, CB, Notre Dame
6th Round
Carlos Fields, LB,Winston-Salem State*
Morgan Breslin, LB USC
Mike Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley St.
Justin Britt, OT, Missouri
Ryan Groy, G, Wisconsin
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT, McGill
Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
Preston Brown, LB, Louisville
Dontae Johnson, CB/S, NC State
Wesley Johnson, OT, Vanderbilt
7th Round
Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
Beau Allen, DT, Wisconsin
Stephen Houston, RB, Indiana
Brock Coyle, LB, Montana
Terrence Fede, DE, Marist
Brandon Watts, LB/S, Georgia Tech
Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech
If you ask me again in five minutes, I'm sure that the order I've listed these players in will have already changed. The order that the players are listed in doesn't necessarily reflect my opinion of the players, or suggest where I think they 'deserve to be selected'. This is all basically a compromised mash-up of my opinions, mixed with the practical reality that players will be selected in an order that doesn't mesh with my views about certain issues. There are players who will probably go in the 5th round, that I feel are better than some people who will be taken in the 1st round. To some extent, I also need to factor in whether I think a player will even be given a real opportunity to compete for a starting job, as the perception that teams have of certain players can really be the biggest obstacle to success in many cases. It's all just a matter of figuring out, to the best of my ability, just how highly I would need to pick someone, in order to acquire them. The goal is to have as many options in mind as possible, for each round, even if I'm not a huge fan of all of them.
As the draft unfolds, I will undoubtedly be frantically reshuffling the Little Big Board, and quite possibly tossing in extra names to fill in some gaps. If a player isn't included in this list, it doesn't necessarily mean that I think they are a bum (though it might mean that). It could just mean that I don't think there is a strong probability that they will fall to the point where I would be comfortable selecting them. Other players, might not be suitable for the team I am drafting for, the Ravens. In some cases, I might be very interested in a player, but have some uncertainty as to whether a team will play them at the position that I think best suits them. That creates a huge problem, since I have no say in this issue, and it forces me to put a greater emphasis on selecting players that I suspect will do well regardless of what team they wind up on (since I will have no idea what team will end up selecting them).
Since Team Kangaroo's first pick will come with the 17th overall selection (barring any trades that might occur), we'll mainly focus on players who should be available at that point. Currently, there are a couple of likely directions I could see us headed in, and I have laid out a few of these potential scenarios below.
The Ultra-Conservative Approach, Joel Bitonio
Based upon who I normally see falling to the Ravens 1st pick (the 17th overall), I am forced into an awkward position. I just don't feel that I'm going to be terribly thrilled with the popular options that the Ravens will be selecting from at this point. On the other hand, there are some players who I am very interested in, that will probably be available a bit later, though they probably won't fall to the Ravens 2nd pick. This makes the option of trading back quite appealing, though I obviously have no say in what Ozzie Newsome will do.
If I selected OT/OG Joel Bitonio with the 17th overall pick, I'm sure that people would give me a fair bit of grief. The term 'reach' would most likely be thrown at me for such a selection. I suspect a bit of heckling and ridicule would be directed at me, leading to a tear soaked pillow as I sob myself to sleep. Nevertheless, it's an option I could happily live with.
Since we are building off of the alternate timeline that began with last year's draft, some things look a bit different for Team Kangaroo, than they might for the Ravens. I obviously drafted numerous offensive linemen last year, with Terron Armstead being the most highly selected of these players. Seeing as how Armstead currently appears to be the Saints' starting left tackle, and seems to be showing some signs of promising potential, it has a significant effect on our view of things. For one, we might not have been forced into trading for Eugene Monroe (which would have given Team Kangaroo 2 extra selections in this draft, though we'll overlook that), nor would we have had to resign Monroe. Despite all of that, Team Kangaroo still needs more depth at the tackle position, and someone to play on the right side of the line. I think Bitonio could do quite well in that role, though I obviously lean towards making heavy investments in the O-line.
This sort of pick would be perceived by many to be a 'reach', and it might not strike many people as a terribly flashy pick, but it is one that I suspect should turn out well. I think the odds of Bitonio failing are rather slim, and that he could provide immediate value for the team. After all, I've probably studied at least 2 or 3 minutes of his game film (a grueling 2 or 3 minutes!), so I'm kind of an expert on this subject. The main drawback here is that, of the options I have considered for the team's 1st pick, Bitonio probably has the highest probability of falling to our pick in the 2nd round. I doubt he will fall that far, but it is possible. Still, this is somewhat balanced out by possibly being the safest pick.
The Still Conservative But Less Shocking Approach, Deone Bucannon
Again, this is a pick that would get me laughed at by most people. Personally, I don't think Bucannon should be taken before the 3rd round, because of my feelings about the value of the strong safety position. In the end though, the market determines these things, and I suspect Bucannon is going to go in the late 1st to early 2nd round area (probably the latter). The issue here is that Team Kangaroo should probably address the safety position at some point. Since we are operating on an alternate timeline, Team Kangaroo doesn't have Matt Elam, not that this is terribly upsetting to us.
Among the players who will clearly be playing as safeties, Bucannon strikes me as the safest prospect. I'm not necessarily saying that he will be the best, just that he best conforms to the mold that the computer has for a safety prospect. Will he end up being great? I don't know. All I care about is that he doesn't end up being horrible. After Bucannon is selected, the safety options that hold the most appeal to me, are prospects who are listed as corners, who could be converted into safeties. Since I have no say in what position a prospect will end up playing, this makes the risk of selecting them much higher, while also increasing the value of Bucannon to Team Kangaroo. It's not a situation that I am thrilled with, but I could live with making this pick. While I like Bitonio a bit more than I like Bucannon, I suspect Bucannon might be the more highly drafted player, which puts a bit more pressure on me to take a slight gamble here, and hope that Bitonio, might fall to my 2nd pick.
The Potentially Bat-shit Crazy Approach, Jason Verrett, Cody Latimer, Odell Beckham, et al
This is where things could go off the rails a bit, though it would also probably be greeted with less ridicule, and conform better with most people's thoughts in regard to where players "should be selected". As well as Verrett, Latimer, and Beckham, I would also toss Jordan Matthews, Bradley Roby, Kareem Martin and Allen Robinson into this category. Unfortunately, the players that people would deem to be more appropriate picks for the 17th overall selection all strike me as a bit riskier, and generally have certain issues that make me a bit nervous. At the same time, they have some significant upside potential. I don't necessarily feel that all of these players present the same risks, but the risks still aren't too bad with any of them. They would all probably be seen as less peculiar picks than some of my more conservative preferences, who will probably be taken a bit later.
From my perspective, the players in this group are all intriguing, but the odds of success for any of them make them more suitable as 2nd round selections. Still, I can't deny that I am really drawn to some of them, despite the increased risks that some of them present. Cody Latimer, in particular, has seized an uncomfortable/irrational hold on my heart, despite potentially being one of the riskiest prospects in this group. There are some strong arguments to be made for all of these players, but there are also generally some strong reasons to be somewhat wary of them.
Since the whole point of this exercise is to see what would happen if an imaginary team consistently made the most cautious picks possible, based largely on objective data rather than intuition, taking unnecessary risks would be a bit of a violation of our principles. Still, such a pick could be justified to some degree. Since our real goal is just to outperform Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens, they could end up giving Team Kangaroo the necessary breathing room to gamble a bit. If Ozzie Newsome makes a selection that the computer feels has a low probability of success, it would decrease the pressure on our part to be extremely cautious. The computer would essentially be playing down to the competition in this scenario.
In the end, my goal is pretty straight forward. I think the 2014 draft is a bit more top-heavy than last year's draft. In 2013, I felt the talent projected to go in the first 2 rounds was fairly weak, but that the players available in the later rounds might be more interesting. This year might run a bit in the opposite direction. So, getting out of the first 2 rounds with players I am happy with, might be a bit more important. If I end up making it out of those two rounds with some combination of Joel Bitonio, Deone Bucannon, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby (Hooray for DWIs lowering a player's stock!), Phillip Gaines, Kareem Martin, or perhaps one of the more intriguing receivers, I would probably be reasonably content, though the real fun always comes with the later picks.
If anyone wants to chime in, feel free. You've got one week to persuade me that I either have my head up my ass about some prospect that I am interested in, or that I have underrated/excluded someone that I should be considering. You might even influence my opinion about someone, or you might not. Reilly will still serve as General Manager of Team Kangaroo, and I will serve as his humble assistant, but additional Kangaroo Scouts are always welcome. In the end, the whole point of the game is to discover whether us mere mortals can produce something that looks like a half-way intelligent result. Whether that result comes from an individual steering the ship, or whether it is a group effort, really doesn't matter too much to us. Of course, Reilly will get all of the glory, but he is a benevolent leader.
Whether you choose to participate in this adventure with us, or not, I would highly recommend conducting your own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team you follow. It makes the draft more entertaining to watch, and can really give you an odd sense of the pressure that GMs operate under. I find that making a pick, and watching as nobody selects that player for several rounds, is oddly disturbing to my confidence. Other times you get the timing right, and feel quite clever. It can be surprisingly nerve wracking, for an exercise that has no real consequences. If you end up deciding to play along, feel free to send me an email with your team's results, or post it in the comments. In the end, I'd really enjoy making a post with some of the results that you all might generate.
As we proceed on our drunken vision quest, we must brace ourselves for the perils that lie ahead. The possibility of failure is great. The potential for embarrassment is always on my mind. The only thing we can do is to have faith in the numbers, and meditate on our spirit animal for guidance.
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| The Reilly-A-Roo, almost as dangerous as a chupacabra |
1st Round
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Joel Bitonio, OT/G, Nevada *
Jason Verrett, CB, TCU*
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.*
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina*
Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
2nd Round
Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana*
Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State*
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St.
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington St.*
Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice*
Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi St.
Rashede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
3rd Round
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College*
Carl Bradford, DE/OLB, Arizona St.*
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno St.
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB/S, Nebraska
Jackson Jeffcoat, DE/OLB, Texas
Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
4th Round
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor*
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern*
Andre Williams, RB, Boston College*
James Gayle, DE, Virginia Tech*
Charles Leno, OT/G, Boise St.
Christian Kirksey, LB, Iowa
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
5th Round
Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State*
Gabe Ikard, C, Oklahoma*
Garrett Scott, OT/OG, Marshall
Matt Patchan, OT, Boston College
Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame
John Urschel, OG/C, Penn State
Travis Carrie, CB/S, Ohio
Bennett Jackson, CB, Notre Dame
6th Round
Carlos Fields, LB,Winston-Salem State*
Morgan Breslin, LB USC
Mike Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley St.
Justin Britt, OT, Missouri
Ryan Groy, G, Wisconsin
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT, McGill
Ben Gardner, DE, Stanford
Preston Brown, LB, Louisville
Dontae Johnson, CB/S, NC State
Wesley Johnson, OT, Vanderbilt
7th Round
Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
Beau Allen, DT, Wisconsin
Stephen Houston, RB, Indiana
Brock Coyle, LB, Montana
Terrence Fede, DE, Marist
Brandon Watts, LB/S, Georgia Tech
Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech
If you ask me again in five minutes, I'm sure that the order I've listed these players in will have already changed. The order that the players are listed in doesn't necessarily reflect my opinion of the players, or suggest where I think they 'deserve to be selected'. This is all basically a compromised mash-up of my opinions, mixed with the practical reality that players will be selected in an order that doesn't mesh with my views about certain issues. There are players who will probably go in the 5th round, that I feel are better than some people who will be taken in the 1st round. To some extent, I also need to factor in whether I think a player will even be given a real opportunity to compete for a starting job, as the perception that teams have of certain players can really be the biggest obstacle to success in many cases. It's all just a matter of figuring out, to the best of my ability, just how highly I would need to pick someone, in order to acquire them. The goal is to have as many options in mind as possible, for each round, even if I'm not a huge fan of all of them.
As the draft unfolds, I will undoubtedly be frantically reshuffling the Little Big Board, and quite possibly tossing in extra names to fill in some gaps. If a player isn't included in this list, it doesn't necessarily mean that I think they are a bum (though it might mean that). It could just mean that I don't think there is a strong probability that they will fall to the point where I would be comfortable selecting them. Other players, might not be suitable for the team I am drafting for, the Ravens. In some cases, I might be very interested in a player, but have some uncertainty as to whether a team will play them at the position that I think best suits them. That creates a huge problem, since I have no say in this issue, and it forces me to put a greater emphasis on selecting players that I suspect will do well regardless of what team they wind up on (since I will have no idea what team will end up selecting them).
Since Team Kangaroo's first pick will come with the 17th overall selection (barring any trades that might occur), we'll mainly focus on players who should be available at that point. Currently, there are a couple of likely directions I could see us headed in, and I have laid out a few of these potential scenarios below.
The Ultra-Conservative Approach, Joel Bitonio
Based upon who I normally see falling to the Ravens 1st pick (the 17th overall), I am forced into an awkward position. I just don't feel that I'm going to be terribly thrilled with the popular options that the Ravens will be selecting from at this point. On the other hand, there are some players who I am very interested in, that will probably be available a bit later, though they probably won't fall to the Ravens 2nd pick. This makes the option of trading back quite appealing, though I obviously have no say in what Ozzie Newsome will do.
If I selected OT/OG Joel Bitonio with the 17th overall pick, I'm sure that people would give me a fair bit of grief. The term 'reach' would most likely be thrown at me for such a selection. I suspect a bit of heckling and ridicule would be directed at me, leading to a tear soaked pillow as I sob myself to sleep. Nevertheless, it's an option I could happily live with.
Since we are building off of the alternate timeline that began with last year's draft, some things look a bit different for Team Kangaroo, than they might for the Ravens. I obviously drafted numerous offensive linemen last year, with Terron Armstead being the most highly selected of these players. Seeing as how Armstead currently appears to be the Saints' starting left tackle, and seems to be showing some signs of promising potential, it has a significant effect on our view of things. For one, we might not have been forced into trading for Eugene Monroe (which would have given Team Kangaroo 2 extra selections in this draft, though we'll overlook that), nor would we have had to resign Monroe. Despite all of that, Team Kangaroo still needs more depth at the tackle position, and someone to play on the right side of the line. I think Bitonio could do quite well in that role, though I obviously lean towards making heavy investments in the O-line.
This sort of pick would be perceived by many to be a 'reach', and it might not strike many people as a terribly flashy pick, but it is one that I suspect should turn out well. I think the odds of Bitonio failing are rather slim, and that he could provide immediate value for the team. After all, I've probably studied at least 2 or 3 minutes of his game film (a grueling 2 or 3 minutes!), so I'm kind of an expert on this subject. The main drawback here is that, of the options I have considered for the team's 1st pick, Bitonio probably has the highest probability of falling to our pick in the 2nd round. I doubt he will fall that far, but it is possible. Still, this is somewhat balanced out by possibly being the safest pick.
The Still Conservative But Less Shocking Approach, Deone Bucannon
Again, this is a pick that would get me laughed at by most people. Personally, I don't think Bucannon should be taken before the 3rd round, because of my feelings about the value of the strong safety position. In the end though, the market determines these things, and I suspect Bucannon is going to go in the late 1st to early 2nd round area (probably the latter). The issue here is that Team Kangaroo should probably address the safety position at some point. Since we are operating on an alternate timeline, Team Kangaroo doesn't have Matt Elam, not that this is terribly upsetting to us.
Among the players who will clearly be playing as safeties, Bucannon strikes me as the safest prospect. I'm not necessarily saying that he will be the best, just that he best conforms to the mold that the computer has for a safety prospect. Will he end up being great? I don't know. All I care about is that he doesn't end up being horrible. After Bucannon is selected, the safety options that hold the most appeal to me, are prospects who are listed as corners, who could be converted into safeties. Since I have no say in what position a prospect will end up playing, this makes the risk of selecting them much higher, while also increasing the value of Bucannon to Team Kangaroo. It's not a situation that I am thrilled with, but I could live with making this pick. While I like Bitonio a bit more than I like Bucannon, I suspect Bucannon might be the more highly drafted player, which puts a bit more pressure on me to take a slight gamble here, and hope that Bitonio, might fall to my 2nd pick.
The Potentially Bat-shit Crazy Approach, Jason Verrett, Cody Latimer, Odell Beckham, et al
This is where things could go off the rails a bit, though it would also probably be greeted with less ridicule, and conform better with most people's thoughts in regard to where players "should be selected". As well as Verrett, Latimer, and Beckham, I would also toss Jordan Matthews, Bradley Roby, Kareem Martin and Allen Robinson into this category. Unfortunately, the players that people would deem to be more appropriate picks for the 17th overall selection all strike me as a bit riskier, and generally have certain issues that make me a bit nervous. At the same time, they have some significant upside potential. I don't necessarily feel that all of these players present the same risks, but the risks still aren't too bad with any of them. They would all probably be seen as less peculiar picks than some of my more conservative preferences, who will probably be taken a bit later.
From my perspective, the players in this group are all intriguing, but the odds of success for any of them make them more suitable as 2nd round selections. Still, I can't deny that I am really drawn to some of them, despite the increased risks that some of them present. Cody Latimer, in particular, has seized an uncomfortable/irrational hold on my heart, despite potentially being one of the riskiest prospects in this group. There are some strong arguments to be made for all of these players, but there are also generally some strong reasons to be somewhat wary of them.
Since the whole point of this exercise is to see what would happen if an imaginary team consistently made the most cautious picks possible, based largely on objective data rather than intuition, taking unnecessary risks would be a bit of a violation of our principles. Still, such a pick could be justified to some degree. Since our real goal is just to outperform Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens, they could end up giving Team Kangaroo the necessary breathing room to gamble a bit. If Ozzie Newsome makes a selection that the computer feels has a low probability of success, it would decrease the pressure on our part to be extremely cautious. The computer would essentially be playing down to the competition in this scenario.
In the end, my goal is pretty straight forward. I think the 2014 draft is a bit more top-heavy than last year's draft. In 2013, I felt the talent projected to go in the first 2 rounds was fairly weak, but that the players available in the later rounds might be more interesting. This year might run a bit in the opposite direction. So, getting out of the first 2 rounds with players I am happy with, might be a bit more important. If I end up making it out of those two rounds with some combination of Joel Bitonio, Deone Bucannon, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby (Hooray for DWIs lowering a player's stock!), Phillip Gaines, Kareem Martin, or perhaps one of the more intriguing receivers, I would probably be reasonably content, though the real fun always comes with the later picks.
If anyone wants to chime in, feel free. You've got one week to persuade me that I either have my head up my ass about some prospect that I am interested in, or that I have underrated/excluded someone that I should be considering. You might even influence my opinion about someone, or you might not. Reilly will still serve as General Manager of Team Kangaroo, and I will serve as his humble assistant, but additional Kangaroo Scouts are always welcome. In the end, the whole point of the game is to discover whether us mere mortals can produce something that looks like a half-way intelligent result. Whether that result comes from an individual steering the ship, or whether it is a group effort, really doesn't matter too much to us. Of course, Reilly will get all of the glory, but he is a benevolent leader.
Whether you choose to participate in this adventure with us, or not, I would highly recommend conducting your own version of the Ozzie Newsome Challenge, with whatever team you follow. It makes the draft more entertaining to watch, and can really give you an odd sense of the pressure that GMs operate under. I find that making a pick, and watching as nobody selects that player for several rounds, is oddly disturbing to my confidence. Other times you get the timing right, and feel quite clever. It can be surprisingly nerve wracking, for an exercise that has no real consequences. If you end up deciding to play along, feel free to send me an email with your team's results, or post it in the comments. In the end, I'd really enjoy making a post with some of the results that you all might generate.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Year One: An Escapade In Blathering
Well, it was one year ago today, when Reilly and I started this rambling blog. If it has been an excruciatingly dull journey for you, just imagine how it feels for Reilly. That's the equivalent of seven years of his life, that he can never get back. Sure, the fame, the money, and the women might seem like ample compensation for our efforts, but a Jedi craves not these things. We do this for nobler reasons. We do it for the lulz.
To celebrate our one year blather-versary, I thought I would post up the most interesting search queries that have led people to our dark and musty corner of the internet.
1. drunken giraffe
2. kangaroo au pair
3. dog vs. kangaroo
4. lumberjack college
5. Why are running backs short?
6. dead prostitutes
7. dead hookers
8. Buffalo hookers (the murderers are getting a bit more specific)
9. average speed of a kangaroo
10. kangaroo squirrel
11. How much could a kangaroo bench?
12. Paul Worrilow is the most interesting man in the world
13. fat guys in spandex
14. Ron Jeremy length
To say that our small readership is probably made up of deviants and weirdos, would probably be an understatement. I mean, let's ignore the dead prostitute theme here, and just focus on the person searching for a "kangaroo au pair". Am I supposed to believe that there are individuals out there that want to employ a kangaroo as a nanny for their children? Yes, it sounds awesome in theory, but the practical application of a kangaroo babysitter just doesn't strike me as terribly sensible. Then again, judging such a concept without testing its real world feasibility, might be a product of my biases concerning gargantuan marsupials as care givers. Maybe it would work? The only way to know for sure is to test this concept in the laboratory. So, if anybody could send me a kangaroo, or if you don't have that, if you happen to have a spare child lying around the house, we can begin testing this bold concept. Maybe it will be the next billion dollar industry.
Either way, I don't want it to sound like Reilly and I are judging any of yousickos kind people. I just really wanted to express my gratitude to the small group of people who have passed through these parts, and particularly the ones who have become regular visitors. It's been rather nice, having strange people (kangaroo owning prostitute
murderers?) to bounce these ideas off of, as my family seems to have
the ability to block out most of my nonsense. Those of you who I have been able to interact with, either through the comments section or through emails, have been very kind and supportive of our lunatic efforts. The word 'idiot' hasn't been thrown at me nearly as much as I would have expected, or probably deserved. Hopefully, as time goes on, we can remain on the right side of the ledger, in that sense.
To celebrate our one year blather-versary, I thought I would post up the most interesting search queries that have led people to our dark and musty corner of the internet.
1. drunken giraffe
2. kangaroo au pair
3. dog vs. kangaroo
4. lumberjack college
5. Why are running backs short?
6. dead prostitutes
7. dead hookers
8. Buffalo hookers (the murderers are getting a bit more specific)
9. average speed of a kangaroo
10. kangaroo squirrel
11. How much could a kangaroo bench?
12. Paul Worrilow is the most interesting man in the world
13. fat guys in spandex
14. Ron Jeremy length
To say that our small readership is probably made up of deviants and weirdos, would probably be an understatement. I mean, let's ignore the dead prostitute theme here, and just focus on the person searching for a "kangaroo au pair". Am I supposed to believe that there are individuals out there that want to employ a kangaroo as a nanny for their children? Yes, it sounds awesome in theory, but the practical application of a kangaroo babysitter just doesn't strike me as terribly sensible. Then again, judging such a concept without testing its real world feasibility, might be a product of my biases concerning gargantuan marsupials as care givers. Maybe it would work? The only way to know for sure is to test this concept in the laboratory. So, if anybody could send me a kangaroo, or if you don't have that, if you happen to have a spare child lying around the house, we can begin testing this bold concept. Maybe it will be the next billion dollar industry.
Either way, I don't want it to sound like Reilly and I are judging any of you
Friday, April 25, 2014
Jordan Matthews: Stealth Midget
I've really struggled a fair bit with how I feel about Jordan Matthews. As a prospect, he is simply beyond weird. Still, for the most part, I have had generally positive things to say about him. I've tried to temper my tendency to speak negatively about every single prospect that crosses my path. He easily met the computer's criteria when it came to statistical production. When it came to his athletic ability, he also managed to meet the computer's standards for a 'Big' wide receiver, though he wasn't exactly off the charts in this area.
Despite all of that, there are some things which make me very nervous about Matthews. Part of the problem, I can't deny, is that I figure there is a good chance of looking like an idiot if I bet too strongly against somebody who dominated the SEC the way Matthews did. This is why I let the computer do most of the thinking for me. If I am wrong about a prospect, I can blame a wonky hard drive. In this case, as I said, the computer thinks Matthews falls within the acceptable range of what it would expect to see in a successful wide receiver prospect. It's not an insignificant accomplishment for a receiver to get the computer's blessing, and I don't treat the computer's recommendations lightly. Still, I do get the feeling that Matthews might be a bit of an optical illusion.
When you hear that Matthews is just a tad over 6'3"tall, and weighs in at 212 pounds, you naturally think "Hey, that's a pretty big guy!" Because of the wight-class he falls into, the computer judges him against other 'Big' wide receivers, who are over 200 pounds. No, he's not quite as big as Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Julio Jones, but he does have nice physical proportions, which leads you to look at him as a potentially intimidating #1 wide receiver. This creates a somewhat odd problem, because even though the computer says he meets all of the criteria of a 'Big' receiver, he doesn't really move the needle too far when it comes to his athletic ability, at least in comparison to some of his bulky brethren.
When I was discussing Jordan Matthews, I suggested that he might be more like a 'Small' receiver in a 'Big' receivers body. So, let's think about this for a second. Is it just the physical dimensions of a receiver that should get us excited about their potential? Or, is it the power that generally resides in these larger frames, which really makes a difference?
There are all sorts of physical traits that you can look at with a receiver. First of all, you want him to actually be able to catch the ball. That seems pretty obvious, though teams do ignore this quite frequently (Stephen Hill!). Some measure of speed and quickness is also nice. We can look at the player's 10-yard split and 40-time to get some sense of that, and Matthews appears to do quite well in this area. There's also the issue of agility, and the ability of a receiver to contort his body in seemingly unnatural ways, or have the elusiveness to get open. With larger prospects, we also start to dream of something even more unusual. We imagine a kind of physical dominance, and the ability to simply overwhelm an opposing cornerback. For this, I think we want plain and simple old-fashioned power.
As I've said before, when the computer is weighing the 'Big' receivers, it puts more of an emphasis on the player's Kangaroo Score than it does for the 'Small' prospects. The Kangaroo Score is my measure of lower body power, based on the player's vertical jump and broad jump, in relation to the player's weight. Some people shift more of their attention to a player's bench press results, but I just suspect that lower body power is the more important factor. I'm not suggesting that this is the be-all-end-all of physical traits, but I do think it has some significant bearing on a player's ability to plow through an opponent, and probably increases the difficulty with which a player is going to be tackled or pushed around.
When the computer comes up with the Kangaroo Score for a player, it basically averages the results from the vertical jump and broad jump, while factoring in a player's weight. Normally this isn't a huge problem. The two scores generally mirror each other, to some degree. If you take a player's vertical jump, and multiply it by 3.5, you'll probably wind up pretty damn close to what their broad jump is. This isn't always the case, however.
When I previously discussed Jordan Matthews, I expressed some concern about his rather mediocre Kangaroo Score 0.232. This result is given in the form of how many standard deviations he was above the average result for a wide receiver, and while his result is technically above average, it is still really quite pedestrian. Regardless, I suggested that players such as A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson and Sidney Rice had also produced rather pedestrian Kangaroo Scores, yet managed to go on to have a significant degree of success. This is true, but it is also a bit misleading, as these 3 players had rather peculiar results that might require deeper examination. So, let's look at their Kangaroo Scores, and break things down a bit more thoroughly.
There's something I should mention here, before we go any further. The 'average' of the Vertical Kangaroo Score and the Broad Jump Kangaroo Score, obviously isn't weighted in a 50/50 manner. The Total Kangaroo Score gives a slight advantage to the Vertical Kangaroo Score, with more of a 60/40 split. There are reasons for this, which I'll try to get into as we go along.
Either way, all 5 of these players have Total Kangaroo Scores that would basically fall in the somewhat 'average' range. When we look a bit deeper, however, we see that 4 out of these 5 players did manage to rise at least 0.500 standard deviations above the average, in one of the two jumps. Watkins, Green and Nelson, are rising above the 0.500 mark somewhat significantly, in at least one of the two jumps, so there is at least some suggestion that power is lurking within them. Matthews, on the other hand, seemed to demonstrate merely average power, regardless of the jump.
Now, what could all of this actually mean? There was an article I linked to, at one time, that discussed some of the potential differences between a vertical jump and a broad jump, in relation to speed and quickness. I'll post it again, here, though I don't want anyone to think that I swear by any of the theories expressed in this article. Basically, the writer suggests that this is all about muscle development, and says that players with an above average vertical jump might have better quickness, while players with a better broad jump might have better deep speed. I wouldn't say that my own conclusions on this subject are entirely set in stone, but based on a number of players that I have gone back to examine, there might be some merit to this idea. Still, I wouldn't overreact to any of this, as the results only seem to gain some debatable value when there are fairly extreme variations in the two results.
The potentially more important issue that I want to address is a bit different. Instead of discussing how these things relate to speed or quickness, let's just focus on the value of having some sort of demonstrable power, that is above the average expected result. We're talking about power for the purpose of violence and intimidation. While the majority of the players in the above mentioned group had wildly varying results between their vertical jump and their broad jump, at one time or another, they did demonstrate significant power of some sort. This isn't necessarily a knockout blow to Matthews, it just raises the question of whether we should have certain expectations of him performing like a conventional 'Big' wide receiver.
Now, this has all been comparing Matthews to 4 particular/peculiar players, who produced results that might have needed a deeper examination. Perhaps, some of these players would have produced less divergent results in their two jumps, if given another chance. It is impossible to say, though many players do correct these inconsistencies/irregularities when they perform at their pro days. Either way, we will never know the answers to some of these questions.
Instead, let's ask a question about a broader selection of wide receivers. While contemplating this year's wide receiver prospects, I reexamined some of the prospects from the last 15 years. Among the 'Big' receivers, I set aside 40 players who I felt had managed to become statistically significant in their NFL careers. 'Statistically significant' is obviously rather vague, and my opinions on this are probably a bit biased. Nonetheless, I suspect we would all agree on most of the players I included in this examination. They tended to be the obvious sorts of players, that have become well known to us all.
Among these 40 'Big' receivers, there were only five for whom no data/insufficient date related to the vertical jump or broad jump was available. These five players were Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Roy Williams, and Demaryius Thomas. There's no conclusion we can come to about these players, but I'll leave them in the calculations anyway. They represent 12.5% of the 40 players I will be mentioning, and will count as players without exceptional Kanagroo Scores, though I have to suspect that some of them would have actually done quite well in this area.
21 of the 40 (52.5%) players managed to produce both vertical jumps as well as broad jumps that were approximately 0.500 standard deviations above average, or better The players in this group included the majority of the Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson variety of receiver, and most were producing results well above a mere 0.500. The median Total Kangaroo Score among these 21 players was a fairly stunning 1.095
29 out of these 40 (72.5%) 'Big' receivers managed to rise above the 0.500 standard deviation threshold in at least one of the two jumps. This somewhat broader group might include more enigmatic players, but at one time or another they did display some power. This group obviously includes the 3 players that I used in the comparison to Jordan Matthews, as well as others such as, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, David Boston, Jerricho Cothcery, James Jones as well as a few others. It's still a rather respectable group.
Now, we get to the 6 players out of the 40 (15%) I examined, who failed to produce a result over 0.500 in either of their 2 jumps. These six players were Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Brandon LaFell, Anquan Boldin, Austin Collie, and Steve Johnson. There are some good players in this group, but with the exception of Anquan Boldin, who is a well established outlier, it is very difficult to say that many of the others would be mistaken for 1st tier wide receivers. Some, like Shorts and Collie (one of the more peculiar inclusions in this list, and someone I should have probably excluded), clearly are more comparable to what we think of as small receivers, and only make this list because their weight, being over 200#, makes them technically eligible, while being obvious misfits for 'Big' receiver comparisons.
Like I said though, there are still those 5 rather significant receivers for whom we have either insignificant results, or no data at all. You can use your own judgement as to whether they should bolster the results of one of these groups, or another.
At least to some extent, I think you can probably see why I have some concerns about Jordan Matthews, and his fit as a conventional 'Big' receiver. None of this is meant to imply that he can't do well, or that I don't think he will do well. I'm just saying that if you think he is somebody who will perform like many of the larger receivers who have come before him, I would tend to hedge my bets on that. The possibility that he could perform well in a role similar to what you see smaller receivers doing, on the other hand, is quite possible, and probably a better fit for his particular skills, namely his above average speed. His statistical production, also, can't easily be ignored. Still, when I have watched him play, it was this speed that caught my eye, and not any sort of abundance of power or physicality. Like I said, I think Jordan Matthews is kind of an optical illusion.
Despite all of that, there are some things which make me very nervous about Matthews. Part of the problem, I can't deny, is that I figure there is a good chance of looking like an idiot if I bet too strongly against somebody who dominated the SEC the way Matthews did. This is why I let the computer do most of the thinking for me. If I am wrong about a prospect, I can blame a wonky hard drive. In this case, as I said, the computer thinks Matthews falls within the acceptable range of what it would expect to see in a successful wide receiver prospect. It's not an insignificant accomplishment for a receiver to get the computer's blessing, and I don't treat the computer's recommendations lightly. Still, I do get the feeling that Matthews might be a bit of an optical illusion.
When you hear that Matthews is just a tad over 6'3"tall, and weighs in at 212 pounds, you naturally think "Hey, that's a pretty big guy!" Because of the wight-class he falls into, the computer judges him against other 'Big' wide receivers, who are over 200 pounds. No, he's not quite as big as Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Julio Jones, but he does have nice physical proportions, which leads you to look at him as a potentially intimidating #1 wide receiver. This creates a somewhat odd problem, because even though the computer says he meets all of the criteria of a 'Big' receiver, he doesn't really move the needle too far when it comes to his athletic ability, at least in comparison to some of his bulky brethren.
When I was discussing Jordan Matthews, I suggested that he might be more like a 'Small' receiver in a 'Big' receivers body. So, let's think about this for a second. Is it just the physical dimensions of a receiver that should get us excited about their potential? Or, is it the power that generally resides in these larger frames, which really makes a difference?
There are all sorts of physical traits that you can look at with a receiver. First of all, you want him to actually be able to catch the ball. That seems pretty obvious, though teams do ignore this quite frequently (Stephen Hill!). Some measure of speed and quickness is also nice. We can look at the player's 10-yard split and 40-time to get some sense of that, and Matthews appears to do quite well in this area. There's also the issue of agility, and the ability of a receiver to contort his body in seemingly unnatural ways, or have the elusiveness to get open. With larger prospects, we also start to dream of something even more unusual. We imagine a kind of physical dominance, and the ability to simply overwhelm an opposing cornerback. For this, I think we want plain and simple old-fashioned power.
As I've said before, when the computer is weighing the 'Big' receivers, it puts more of an emphasis on the player's Kangaroo Score than it does for the 'Small' prospects. The Kangaroo Score is my measure of lower body power, based on the player's vertical jump and broad jump, in relation to the player's weight. Some people shift more of their attention to a player's bench press results, but I just suspect that lower body power is the more important factor. I'm not suggesting that this is the be-all-end-all of physical traits, but I do think it has some significant bearing on a player's ability to plow through an opponent, and probably increases the difficulty with which a player is going to be tackled or pushed around.
When the computer comes up with the Kangaroo Score for a player, it basically averages the results from the vertical jump and broad jump, while factoring in a player's weight. Normally this isn't a huge problem. The two scores generally mirror each other, to some degree. If you take a player's vertical jump, and multiply it by 3.5, you'll probably wind up pretty damn close to what their broad jump is. This isn't always the case, however.
When I previously discussed Jordan Matthews, I expressed some concern about his rather mediocre Kangaroo Score 0.232. This result is given in the form of how many standard deviations he was above the average result for a wide receiver, and while his result is technically above average, it is still really quite pedestrian. Regardless, I suggested that players such as A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson and Sidney Rice had also produced rather pedestrian Kangaroo Scores, yet managed to go on to have a significant degree of success. This is true, but it is also a bit misleading, as these 3 players had rather peculiar results that might require deeper examination. So, let's look at their Kangaroo Scores, and break things down a bit more thoroughly.
| NAME | Vert Kangaroo | Broad Kangaroo | Total Kangaroo |
| Jordan Matthews | 0.160 | 0.340 | 0.232 |
| Sammy Watkins | -0.270 | 0.821 | 0.166 |
| AJ Green | -0.141 | 0.821 | 0.243 |
| Jordy Nelson | -0.816 | 0.865 | -0.143 |
| Sidney Rice | 0.617 | -0.346 | 0.231 |
There's something I should mention here, before we go any further. The 'average' of the Vertical Kangaroo Score and the Broad Jump Kangaroo Score, obviously isn't weighted in a 50/50 manner. The Total Kangaroo Score gives a slight advantage to the Vertical Kangaroo Score, with more of a 60/40 split. There are reasons for this, which I'll try to get into as we go along.
Either way, all 5 of these players have Total Kangaroo Scores that would basically fall in the somewhat 'average' range. When we look a bit deeper, however, we see that 4 out of these 5 players did manage to rise at least 0.500 standard deviations above the average, in one of the two jumps. Watkins, Green and Nelson, are rising above the 0.500 mark somewhat significantly, in at least one of the two jumps, so there is at least some suggestion that power is lurking within them. Matthews, on the other hand, seemed to demonstrate merely average power, regardless of the jump.
Now, what could all of this actually mean? There was an article I linked to, at one time, that discussed some of the potential differences between a vertical jump and a broad jump, in relation to speed and quickness. I'll post it again, here, though I don't want anyone to think that I swear by any of the theories expressed in this article. Basically, the writer suggests that this is all about muscle development, and says that players with an above average vertical jump might have better quickness, while players with a better broad jump might have better deep speed. I wouldn't say that my own conclusions on this subject are entirely set in stone, but based on a number of players that I have gone back to examine, there might be some merit to this idea. Still, I wouldn't overreact to any of this, as the results only seem to gain some debatable value when there are fairly extreme variations in the two results.
The potentially more important issue that I want to address is a bit different. Instead of discussing how these things relate to speed or quickness, let's just focus on the value of having some sort of demonstrable power, that is above the average expected result. We're talking about power for the purpose of violence and intimidation. While the majority of the players in the above mentioned group had wildly varying results between their vertical jump and their broad jump, at one time or another, they did demonstrate significant power of some sort. This isn't necessarily a knockout blow to Matthews, it just raises the question of whether we should have certain expectations of him performing like a conventional 'Big' wide receiver.
Now, this has all been comparing Matthews to 4 particular/peculiar players, who produced results that might have needed a deeper examination. Perhaps, some of these players would have produced less divergent results in their two jumps, if given another chance. It is impossible to say, though many players do correct these inconsistencies/irregularities when they perform at their pro days. Either way, we will never know the answers to some of these questions.
Instead, let's ask a question about a broader selection of wide receivers. While contemplating this year's wide receiver prospects, I reexamined some of the prospects from the last 15 years. Among the 'Big' receivers, I set aside 40 players who I felt had managed to become statistically significant in their NFL careers. 'Statistically significant' is obviously rather vague, and my opinions on this are probably a bit biased. Nonetheless, I suspect we would all agree on most of the players I included in this examination. They tended to be the obvious sorts of players, that have become well known to us all.
Among these 40 'Big' receivers, there were only five for whom no data/insufficient date related to the vertical jump or broad jump was available. These five players were Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Roy Williams, and Demaryius Thomas. There's no conclusion we can come to about these players, but I'll leave them in the calculations anyway. They represent 12.5% of the 40 players I will be mentioning, and will count as players without exceptional Kanagroo Scores, though I have to suspect that some of them would have actually done quite well in this area.
21 of the 40 (52.5%) players managed to produce both vertical jumps as well as broad jumps that were approximately 0.500 standard deviations above average, or better The players in this group included the majority of the Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson variety of receiver, and most were producing results well above a mere 0.500. The median Total Kangaroo Score among these 21 players was a fairly stunning 1.095
29 out of these 40 (72.5%) 'Big' receivers managed to rise above the 0.500 standard deviation threshold in at least one of the two jumps. This somewhat broader group might include more enigmatic players, but at one time or another they did display some power. This group obviously includes the 3 players that I used in the comparison to Jordan Matthews, as well as others such as, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, David Boston, Jerricho Cothcery, James Jones as well as a few others. It's still a rather respectable group.
Now, we get to the 6 players out of the 40 (15%) I examined, who failed to produce a result over 0.500 in either of their 2 jumps. These six players were Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Brandon LaFell, Anquan Boldin, Austin Collie, and Steve Johnson. There are some good players in this group, but with the exception of Anquan Boldin, who is a well established outlier, it is very difficult to say that many of the others would be mistaken for 1st tier wide receivers. Some, like Shorts and Collie (one of the more peculiar inclusions in this list, and someone I should have probably excluded), clearly are more comparable to what we think of as small receivers, and only make this list because their weight, being over 200#, makes them technically eligible, while being obvious misfits for 'Big' receiver comparisons.
Like I said though, there are still those 5 rather significant receivers for whom we have either insignificant results, or no data at all. You can use your own judgement as to whether they should bolster the results of one of these groups, or another.
At least to some extent, I think you can probably see why I have some concerns about Jordan Matthews, and his fit as a conventional 'Big' receiver. None of this is meant to imply that he can't do well, or that I don't think he will do well. I'm just saying that if you think he is somebody who will perform like many of the larger receivers who have come before him, I would tend to hedge my bets on that. The possibility that he could perform well in a role similar to what you see smaller receivers doing, on the other hand, is quite possible, and probably a better fit for his particular skills, namely his above average speed. His statistical production, also, can't easily be ignored. Still, when I have watched him play, it was this speed that caught my eye, and not any sort of abundance of power or physicality. Like I said, I think Jordan Matthews is kind of an optical illusion.
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